Editor's Note: Keep tabs on this page for lineup advice following qualifying, including changes you should consider.
Starting five: Kyle Larson, Chase Briscoe, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell.
Garage: William Byron.
Somebody better call the Miami Symphony Orchestra, because the vocalist's final warmups are underway. Kyle Larson sits just nine points away from becoming the 11th driver in NASCAR history to capture at least three Cup Series championships, joining some of the sport's most legendary names. Homestead-Miami Speedway rewards drivers who can finesse their way right against the wall, and many of the same contenders have consistently found success at the 1.5-mile oval.
Returning to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick,
where you can come play along. It's a season-long points battle introduced in 2024 where strategy is the primary emphasis. With 36 chartered cars and 36 races on the 2026 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season.
MUST START
Driver: Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Selections remaining: 1
Comment: With a hefty 67-point championship lead, Larson could lock up the 2026 Cup championship at the end of the opening stage by tallying eight points (he needs nine but will earn one via starting the race). That would allow him to ride the wall around Homestead, a dangerous game of trial and error. Homestead is among Larson's best race tracks, with a pair of wins in the last five visits and a track-record 645 laps led.
Driver: Chase Briscoe, Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Selections remaining: 1
Comment: No driver has excelled more at intermediate tracks in the second half of the 2026 season than Briscoe. The No. 19 team has won three of the last four, including two straight – Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway – in The Chase. He placed fourth in South Beach last year in his lone attempt with JGR.
Driver: Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota
Selections remaining: 1
Comment: While Larson is known to aggressively run centimeters from the wall, it's arguable that Reddick does it just a tick better. Reddick is among the best in Miami, too, with four top-five and five top-10 finishes in six starts, including a fearless last-lap dash in 2024. An 8.8 average finish here trails only Kevin Harvick (7.5) among drivers with multiple starts.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images[/caption]
DRIVERS TO AVOID
Driver: Joey Logano, Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Selections remaining: 2
Comment: The late-season surge by Team Penske at intermediate tracks is commendable. And while Logano captured his first of three Bill France Cups in the Miami suburb via a 2018 victory, it hasn't been his playground recently. He has a single top 10 in the last six attempts here, with a best effort of eighth (2023).
Driver: Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Selections remaining: 5
Comment: Aside from Shane van Gisbergen, Trackhouse's intermediate program still has room to grow. Despite winning the 2025 Coca-Cola 600 in impressive fashion, Chastain has recorded 10 consecutive finishes outside the top 10 on similar layouts. His recent history at Homestead-Miami Speedway is also less encouraging, with three straight finishes of 31st or worse.
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Meg Oliphant | Getty Images[/caption]
SLEEPERS OF THE WEEK
Driver: AJ Allmendinger, Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet
Selections remaining: 5
Comment: Given Kaulig's alignment with Dodge, Allmendinger's recent success at Homestead may not carry the same weight without Chevrolet support. Still, his numbers are eye-popping, with the veteran finishing eighth or better in each of the last four races at the oval. His 5.75 average finish is the best among all drivers in the Next Gen era.
Driver: Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Selections remaining: 5
Comment: Dillon hopes to keep RCR from going without a top-five finish for the first time since 1980, when Childress was behind the wheel. Homestead could provide a breakthrough, as Dillon has four top 10s in his last seven starts and a career-best 12.7 average finish at the track.
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Scott Taetsch | Getty Images[/caption]
FEATURED MATCHUPS
William Byron vs. Joey Logano
Pick: Byron
Comment: Byron and the No. 24 team enter Homestead with momentum after checking the win column. All four of his Homestead top 10s have come in his last six starts, and his 9.9 average finish at 1.5-mile tracks leads all drivers in the Next Gen era.
Kyle Larson vs. Tyler Reddick
Pick: Reddick
Comment: If Larson clinches the championship before the final stage, he could be free to put on a show. Meanwhile, Reddick will have free rein all race long, and few things are better than watching him maximize the high line against the wall.
Denny Hamlin vs. Christopher Bell
Pick: Hamlin
Comment: Both Joe Gibbs Racing drivers will be thinking what could have been had execution been better during The Chase. Hamlin is always a contender at Homestead, scoring a trio of triumphs and earning 10 top-10 finishes in the last 13 races. Bell has improved steadily at the venue since the start of his career, finishing fourth or better, including a 2023 victory, in two of the last three races.
Ryan Blaney vs. Chase Elliott
Pick: Blaney
Comment: Blaney has three straight top-five finishes at intermediate tracks and should have a win or two already in the bag at Homestead, placing runner-up in two of the last three outings. Elliott, meanwhile, has a single top 10 in the last five trips to Miami.
MY LINEUP
Starting five: Kyle Larson, Chase Briscoe, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell.
Garage: William Byron.
36 FOR 36
Pick: Alex Bowman, Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Comment: On the track, 2026 has been a season to forget for Bowman, who sits 26th in the standings. Still, he could close the year on a high note after finishing runner-up to Larson at Homestead last season and recording 11 top-10s in his last 19 starts at 1.5-mile tracks.