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Chase Bubble Watch after Charlotte

RELATED: Updated series standings | Full Charlotte race results

Advancing: Joey Logano had the car to beat in Sunday's Bank of America 500, and it paid off as the Team Penske driver led 227 laps to win at Charlotte Motor Speedway, the first race of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Contender Round. Logano's victory punches his ticket to the Eliminator Round.

This marks Logano's first career trip to Victory Lane at Charlotte.

Four in, four out: Here's the bubble picture following Charlotte. The four drivers below the line would not advance to the next round (Eliminator) if the Contender Round ended today. (Note: The Contender Round ends in two weeks at Talladega Superspeedway.)

5. Kurt Busch (four points ahead of eighth-place driver)
6. Carl Edwards (+4)
7. Jeff Gordon (+2)
8. Brad Keselowski (--)
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9. Ryan Newman (6 points behind eighth-place driver)
10. Kyle Busch (-10)
11. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (-19)
12. Matt Kenseth (-32)

Reason for hope: Kevin Harvick is certainly off to a better start to the Contender Round than the Challenger Round, finishing second to Logano at Charlotte. As long as he can stay out of harm's way over the next two races, you could practically pencil in the defending Sprint Cup Series champion for the Eliminator Round. Only problem? Talladega Superspeedway (round finale) might as well be called "Harm's Way."

Reason for worry: Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s Chase outlook darkened at Lap 69, when his No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet smacked the wall, then hit it again five laps later between Turns 1 and 2. "Hit the (expletive) wall pretty good," Earnhardt told crew chief Greg Ives after his first contact. While Earnhardt continued in the race, his 28th-place result sets him back to 11th in the Chase field -- putting him in a more desperate situation at Kansas, where he is winless.

MORE: Earnhardt Jr. hammers wall twice

Up next: Hollywood Casino 400, 2:15 p.m. ET, Oct. 18 at Kansas Speedway (NBC, MRN, SiriusXM)

Who it favors
Most wins: 3 -- Jeff Gordon
Best driver rating: 100.5 -- Jeff Gordon
Best average finish: 9.9 -- Jeff Gordon

Who it hurts
Fewest top 10s: 3 -- Kyle Busch (in 15 starts)
Worst driver rating: 78.8 -- Kyle Busch
Worst average finish: 21.4 -- Kyle Busch