Problems should soon dissipate for these four drivers

Chase Elliott ranks 11th in overall speed through 12 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series races, but just 19th in laps led. He averages a finish eight positions better in races with less than the normal amount of restarts than he does in races with an excessive number. Hendrick Motorsports is experiencing a down season, yes, but the organization's struggles don’t fully explain away its fastest driver's troubles. Elliott’s restarting might be the pain point in question. His 26.1 percent retention from the non-preferred groove ranks 19th among drivers with at least 10 attempts and represents a 32.2 percent drop from his clip last year. This cost him 39 positions across the initial one-third of the season. RELATED: Four drivers closing in on wins Ultimately, this is an area that will require attention and may improve as the season rolls forward; however, a more immediate fix is on the horizon. Two of Elliott’s best tracks, based on average finish, will soon surface on the schedule. Michigan (in four career starts, his average finish is 3.5) and Chicagoland (a 2.5-place average in two starts) can provide relief. Elliott has an affinity for these facilities, and more importantly, these tracks host three races during a 10-race span that featured less than the average number of restarts in 2017. In fact, nine of the next 10 races (Daytona is the exception) fit this profile. What better way to alleviate Elliott’s problem with restarts than by mitigating the number of restarts? PHOTOS: Chase Elliott through the years Omitting restarts, Elliott is Hendrick’s most productive results-getter this season, ranking the highest of its four drivers in Production in Equal Equipment Rating. Elliott ranks eighth in the series overall, third among winless drivers (after Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson) and holds the lowest percentage of laps completed inside the top 15 (64.2 percent) among the top 11 in PEER. His car’s 11th-place ranking in speed is down from his sixth-place ranking last season, part of an organization-wide drop that’s also plagued seven-time series champion Jimmie Johnson, whose No. 48 Chevrolet dropped from ninth to 12th. Beyond Elliott, here are three more drivers with brighter days ahead. [caption id="attachment_122797" align="alignnone" width="877"] Sean Gardner | Getty Images[/caption]

Ryan Blaney

Blaney led 118 laps in the Daytona 500 and crashed on what should have been the final lap. He led 100 laps at Bristol and crashed on Lap 119. He led 54 laps at Kansas and crashed on Lap 249. He had the seventh-fastest car in the Coca-Cola 600 until it erupted in flames, the result of an engine failure. As far as circumstances within his control go, Blaney’s 0.54 per-race crash rate is the third highest in the series, trailing only Jamie McMurray (0.62) and Trevor Bayne (0.55). This paints Blaney as an excessive crasher, but a quick look at his crash history indicates an aberration; in three seasons at the Monster Energy Series level, only one of them saw him amass a crash rate higher than the series average. In 13 NASCAR Xfinity Series races last season, he didn’t crash at all. His crash rate should dissipate as the season progresses, allowing for more finishes indicative of his performance. PHOTOS: Relive Blaney's Pocono win Blaney has been fantastic on restarts. Among drivers with at least 10 restart attempts from the non-preferred groove, his 61.5 percent retention rate ranks as the third best, while his 29 positions earned via preferred groove restarts are the fifth-highest total by any driver. His long-run passing presents a challenge; that issue, though, isn’t typically a race-ender when considering his average starting spot (9.5) falls inside the top 10 (he started fifth or better in six of the first 13 races), regularly providing him strong initial track position. [caption id="attachment_116498" align="aligncenter" width="859"] David Becker | Getty Images[/caption]

Kurt Busch

Busch’s No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford ranks as the fourth fastest in the Monster Energy Series. More importantly, it ranks as the fourth fastest in the final quarter of a race. In both respects, his is the fastest car without a victory. It’s perplexing, as his peripheral numbers suggest he’s a threat to traffic inside the restart window. He ranks first in position retention on non-preferred groove restarts (68.2 percent) and third in retention from the preferred groove (91.3), leading to 43 positions gained. While his passing outside the restart window has been sub-par -- he scored positive adjusted pass differentials in just three races -- his results haven’t reflected the problem; his average finish is actually better in races with less than the average amount of restarts (12.4) than it is with eight or more (13.6) and 10 or more (15.0). One would assume a race might eventually break in his favor, and the summer schedule provides some opportunities. Kentucky (12.9), Sonoma (14.1) and Pocono (14.2) represent three of Busch’s five best race tracks based on career average finish and comprise four of the next eight races. Interestingly, none of these tracks hosted races that featured more than the series-average number of restarts last year. In a peculiar twist, the races that suit Busch best aren’t the ones that put his best driving attribute -- restarts -- to full use. Considering the weird disconnect between his effort and results so far in 2018, this twist feels at home with Busch. He’s good, his team is good and, somehow, they must to do something beyond their repertoire’s brilliance to prove it. [caption id="attachment_118687" align="aligncenter" width="824"] NASCAR Digital Media[/caption]

Clint Bowyer

Bowyer’s 10.8-place average finish through Charlotte would suffice as the best of his career if it were to hold for the remainder of the season, and his victory at Martinsville secured him a playoff spot. Still, results could’ve been better as the 39-year-old driver has drawn some unlucky lane assignments during late-race restarts. He restarted from inside the top 14 a total of seven times during “red zone” situations, or the final one-tenth of a race. On five of those occasions, he drew the non-preferred groove. He lost one spot with 21 laps to go while running ninth at Bristol, while Aric Almirola, restarting 10th and to Bowyer’s outside, gained three positions. Bowyer rallied to finish eighth, but Almirola, ranked 23rd in the series for position retention on preferred groove restarts, went on to score a sixth-place finish, propelled by fortunate placement on the final restart of the race. PHOTOS: Bowyer through the years There was a 79 percent difference in restart retention percentage between the outside and inside rows at Bristol. Bowyer’s poor luck didn’t end there. He drew the non-preferred groove on all three red zone restarts at Richmond, and despite gaining a spot on the Lap 379 restart, his progress was stymied when he lost three spots, while restarting sixth, during an overtime attempt. He finished ninth; had he restarted seventh instead of sixth, his chances of retention would’ve been 50 percent greater. Eventually, lane distribution should normalize for him as the season unfolds, but an average finish this good despite 71 percent of his red zone restarts emanating from the non-preferred groove is a testament to his team’s strength heading into the summer months. David Smith is the Founder of MotorsportsAnalytics.com. Follow him on Twitter at @DavidSmithMA.