No, Brad Keselowski doesn’t get hot as the temperature rises, but it may look that way. The late spring and summer portion of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series schedule is chock-full of tracks that suit Keselowski well, to the point that his talent and ability appear seasonal.
Based on average finish, Keselowski’s four best tracks are Chicagoland (9.2), New Hampshire (9.8), Pocono (10.5) and Watkins Glen (10.8). As it so happens, these four facilities host five races between this weekend and the beginning of August.
Additionally, Daytona, where Keselowski claimed victory in the 2016 July race and led at least one lap in four of the last five races, adorns the schedule. So does Kentucky, where he won three times, including once after its 2016 repaving, and Michigan, the Rochester Hills native’s home track, on which he’s led at least two laps in 10 of the last 12 races.
The summer of 2018 quite possibly could become the Summer of Brad.
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This portion of the schedule can’t get here soon enough for him. Keselowski is over eight positions better (an 11.5-place average) in races with less than the normal amount of restarts than he is in events with an excessive number (19.6). At first blush, this seems to indicate sub-optimal restart performance, but that’s not the case; he holds top-10 position retention rates from both grooves. Unfortunately for him, he’s been caught in the chaos of the most chaotic races, crashing at Daytona, Texas and Bristol, but the need for good fortune will likely minimize in the coming months.
Of the next 10 races on the schedule, only one (Daytona) had more than the average number of restarts in 2017. Races heavy on green-flag runs (and light on cautions) tend to produce good Keselowski outings, and practically all the upcoming tracks are ones for which he has an affinity. Furthermore, Keselowski recorded positive pass differentials last year on all track types save for short tracks, a track style without representation on the schedule until Bristol on Aug. 18.
These next two months likely will comprise the point in the year when Keselowski’s 2018 season is best defined. He won’t be alone in that regard.
Kyle Larson
Larson’s Chip Ganassi Racing entry ranks as the 10th fastest in the series, though it sits third on the cumulative speed chart for 1.5-mile tracks specifically. It seems the bigger the track, the faster he gets. Omitting Daytona and Talladega, a pair of tracks over 2.5 miles in length that restrict horsepower, Michigan, hosting a pair of events on June 10 and Aug. 12, is as big and fast as they get.
With its wide surface and competitive high line, the 2-mile track appears built for the innovative Larson, winner of the last three Michigan races. Winless this season, this track type — represented in three of his five career wins — provides a welcome sight.
Outside of Michigan, Chicagoland (July 1) and Kentucky (July 14) might provide ample opportunity for Larson to showcase his penchant for efficient passing. There was no better passer on 1.5-mile tracks in 2017 than Larson, who provided his team 192 positions beyond the expectation of a driver with his average running position; 47 of those came solely from last year’s runner-up run at Kentucky.
Denny Hamlin
Hamlin is a four-time winner at Pocono (June 3 and July 29), three-time winner at New Hampshire (July 22) and two-time winner at Michigan, not to mention one of the series’ most adept restrictor-plate racers. Despite owning the third-best finishing average in the series (9.7), he’s in need of a spark. After accumulating positive pass differentials in the first seven non-restrictor plate races of the year — an improvement over his past three seasons — he’s hit a rough patch recently, scoring negative differentials in each of the last three events.
Oddly, his passing swoon might not factor at the aforementioned tracks. In all six races at Pocono, New Hampshire and Michigan in 2017, the winners failed to record passing efficiencies better than expected from cars with their average running position. There are other ways, outside of passing, to accrue track position. In three of those races, the winner started from the pole. In the August race at Michigan, winner Kyle Larson gained 16 positions through green-flag pit cycles.
Hamlin’s 7.2-place average starting spot for his career at Pocono is his best across all tracks. In the instance he doesn’t start near the front of the field, crew chief Mike Wheeler has his back. Wheeler has committed the No. 11 team to a consistent long-pitting strategy during green-flag pit cycles this season in bids to acquire large scores of track position; his pitting late in cycles 25 percent of the time is the biggest such percentage among crew chiefs.
AJ Allmendinger
Allmendinger, when inside the first seven rows, is one of the best restarters in NASCAR, having ranked sixth, third and ninth in each of the last three years in position retention from the non-preferred groove. However, with a yearlong average running position no better than 19.7 during that timeframe, JTG Daugherty Racing hasn’t adequately put its driver’s best skill to use. Lucky for the No. 47 team, its track position challenges disappear once race weekends at Sonoma (June 24) and Watkins Glen (Aug. 5) emerge.
Since joining JTG Daugherty, Allmendinger qualified fifth or better — including a pole in 2015 — in each of his four starts at Sonoma. He qualified ninth or better in each of his last seven career starts at the Glen, winning one pole.
His results in eight road-course starts with JTG Daugherty belie his effort. Due to an assortment of maladies, he finished better than 35th just once at Sonoma despite leading at least one lap in each start. He won at Watkins Glen in 2014, and based on average finish (9.3), it’s easily his best track; however, he was shut out from the lead in each of his last two starts there.
Additionally, Allmendinger is a highly efficient passer on the 2-mile tracks of Pocono and Michigan. He ranked second in surplus passing value on the track type last season, accumulating 71 positions beyond the expectation of a driver with his average running position.
David Smith is the Founder of MotorsportsAnalytics.com. Follow him on Twitter at@DavidSmithMA.
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