Bass Pro Shops Night Race

(⏰ Saturday, 7  ET | USA Network | NBC Sports App | PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio)

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Location: Bristol Motor Speedway, Bristol, TN. Track length: 0.533 miles Race purse: $9,222,417 Race distance: 500 laps | 266.5 miles Stages: 125 | 250 | 500 -- Starting lineup: Alex Bowman powers to pole position Pit stall assignments: See where drivers will pit Defending winner: Denny Hamlin, September 2023

Key things to watch

Friday sessions Drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs swept the top five in an extended 45-minute practice session at Bristol Motor Speedway, with Ty Gibbs topping the chart at 124.719 mph in the No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. The whole field took advantage of the extra track time, with 13 of the 37 entrants posting 100 or more laps in the session. Hendrick Motorsports made it a 1-2-3 sweep in Busch Pole Qualifying, with Alex Bowman, Kyle Larson and William Byron securing the top three starting spots. The pole was Bowman's first of the season, fifth of his Cup Series career and his first on the 0.533-mile Bristol track. Playoff drivers sealed eight of the top 10 slots on the grid, but five of the 16 postseason-eligible pros were outside the top 20 -- Ryan Blaney (22nd), Brad Keselowski (23rd), Austin Cindric (27th), Harrison Burton (34th) and Daniel Suárez (35th). | Full Friday recap

Big story line

Where the rubber meets the road ... to the Round of 12 The last time the Cup Series visited Bristol's concrete-covered high banks in March, tire management emerged as a surprise strategy element. Added attention to tire wear and dramatic fall-off produced a series of curveballs, a track-record 54 lead changes, and ultimately a familiar winner in Denny Hamlin. Goodyear officials are bringing back the same tire setup for this weekend's Bass Pro Shops Night Race, and the prospects for a rubber-match repeat add an intriguing spin to the Round of 16 elimination event. Four drivers will be knocked from championship eligibility after Saturday's 500-lapper, and the remaining dozen will advance to the postseason's next phase. A handful of outside factors may sway the tire performance metrics at Bristol between March and September, but Goodyear reps believe they've zeroed in on some of the recipe's prime ingredients. The same tire configuration was also used here last fall but did not have such a pronounced amount of wear. The key difference: The track was prepared with a resin in March as opposed to the PJ1 traction compound that was applied last September, and Goodyear held a tire test with six teams at Bristol on July 16-17 to get a better grasp on the reasons for higher wear. After a longer Friday practice session with the same tire configuration and the same track prep, the prospects for a Saturday night re-run are ... well, mixed. "I have no idea," said Brad Keselowski, who finished third here in March. "We'll see if Jekyll or Hyde shows up." "I mean, it's so hard to predict," Keselowski added. "We're all over the place. We came and tested here in March, saw super-high tire wear, didn't believe it. Went and ran the race and wore the tires right out. Then we came back here in August with the 17 car. Tires couldn't go 20 laps again. Thought, oh, that's what we're gonna have when we come back. And now we're showing no tire wear, so we have no idea what to expect." Teams and drivers alike came to the Tennessee mountains bracing for significant wear, but Friday's preliminaries didn't bear out out those predictions. After a Saturday morning discussion that gathered feedback from Goodyear reps, drivers and track management, NASCAR competition officials cleaned the top groove of excess rubber and applied PJ1 two feet off the bottom of the racing surface in the afternoon hours before the race. [caption id="attachment_446198" align="aligncenter" width="1300"]Ethan Smith | NASCAR Digital Media[/caption] "Spring seems to be an asterisk," said Ross Chastain, who qualified 12th. "I haven't seen anything or felt anything that felt like the spring so far. As we ran through that first run, and we all got to Lap 20, 30, I'm like waiting on it to slip, or waiting on them to say caution, someone blew a tire. But we ran over 50, almost 60 laps. Old Bristol." How those tires will react in the Saturday nighttime hours versus the Friday late-afternoon sunshine, plus after a 300-lap Xfinity Series race's rubbering-in, is still a toss-up. "It's so hard to tell," Cliff Daniels, crew chief for Hendrick Motorsports' No. 5 Chevrolet and second-starting Kyle Larson, told NASCAR.com. "I mean, I think the track conditions (Friday) were much more normal. There's a lot more heat in the track, and the more heat you get into the track, really, the better it is for the tire, to get the tire to come in. So I think a lot of that's what we saw today, which is great. It's great to see not a lot of marbles, and come practice, the tires stayed together really well. Our stuff looked really good after practice. We ran a lot of hard laps up top, and the top had speed, which was good. To be honest, from our end, we're really hoping for kind of an old-fashioned Bristol night race type feel, where you've got all the lanes and can move around a lot. "The X factor for tomorrow night that's a little different than today, is just going to be the track temp coming down a bit for the nighttime. But I still think there's going to be enough rubber on track from today, from the Xfinity race tonight, that hopefully it's a really racy track, and we don't have all the chaos -- which, even if the tire was coming apart, I don't know that we would have all the chaos again because we all know what to expect, right? You know, the X factor back then was the element of surprise that you just don't have. Now, if it were to start coming apart, I think we all know how to react pretty quick. So, yeah, we're just hopeful for a really good, old-fashioned Bristol night race." Watching the Goodyear rubber will be one factor, but many eyeballs will also be on the running tally of the playoff picture. There's separation for the top 10 drivers, but the last two drivers provisionally set to advance -- Chase Briscoe and Ty Gibbs -- are just six points above the elimination line. Denny Hamlin, a three-time winner this year, sits six points below, with Keselowski (minus-12), Martin Truex Jr. (minus-14) and Harrison Burton (minus-20) in order behind him and on the brink of seeing their playoff eligibility fade. History tells us...

Qualifying quickness makes a difference. It's not an absolute, but solid starting spots have often been an indicator of success at Bristol. In six of the last seven races, the winning driver has come from the top five on the starting grid. The pole winner has been the race winner 27 times at Bristol. Conversely, only twice has a driver won from 30th or worse -- Dale Earnhardt Jr. from 30th in 2004 and Elliott Sadler from 38th in 2001.

History also hints that season sweeps at Bristol aren't a major rarity. It's happened 15 times since the track opened for business in 1961, and three drivers have done it more than once -- Cale Yarborough (1974, '76-'77), Darrell Waltrip (1981-83) and Dale Earnhardt (1985, '87). If Denny Hamlin seals this season's sweep of Bristol, he'll be the first to achieve that feat since former teammate Kyle Busch in 2009. He may not be the betting favorite to win, but watch out for... KYLE BUSCH. Rowdy hasn't had the same level of success during the Next Gen era as with previous generations of Cup Series race cars, but it's still surprising to find an eight-time Bristol winner down the board as a 17-1 shot. Factor in a combined 14 more victories in other NASCAR national series, and it's evident that Busch has a history of concrete results. Busch's frustrations this season have been well-documented, but recent weeks have shown signs of a turnaround. The No. 8 Chevrolet driver was 30th last week after a rough run at Watkins Glen but had registered a stretch of four consecutive top-10 finishes before last weekend -- positives that could bode well for playing a Saturday night playoff spoiler, even when starting 29th on the grid. | Bristol odds

Speed reads

Our biggest pieces of the week -- get covered for race day from all angles. • Inside Hamlin's hopes: Simulations reveal razor's edge for No. 11 | Read article • Analysis: It's time for Martin Truex to have get-off-my-lawn moment | Read article • Dale Jr.'s determination: Earnhardt stops short of retirement, won't run in '25 | Read article • Trade talk: Spire, Rick Ware Racing swap LaJoie, Haley for rest of 2024 | Read article • On the move: Harrison Burton to team with AM Racing in Xfinity next year | Read article • Cindric's strength: Team Penske driver off to solid playoff start | Read article • Back for more: Bubba Wallace signs multiyear extension with 23XI | Read article • Bubble Watch: Turmoil swirls for title contenders at Bristol | Photo gallery • Power Rankings: Few are safe in recent roll of playoff chaos | Photo gallery • Turning Point: Hamlin's trifecta try and a roundup of potential playoff spoilers | Read article • Racing Insights: Full finishing order projections for Saturday's Round of 16 finale | Read article • 36 for 36: Check out this week's survivor pool picks | Read article • Fantasy Fastlane: Hamlin, Keselowski in need of rebounds | Photo gallery • Fantasy Update: Hendrick aces show some muscle in qualifying | Read article • Memorable moments: Relive history from the Last Great Colosseum | Photo gallery • Walk-off winners: Playoff performances that converted in the clutch | Photo gallery • NASCAR Classics: Rewind with Bristol full-race replays from the vault | Read article • Paint Scheme Preview: Fresh designs for under the lights at Bristol | Pick your favorite

Fast facts ⏩

Race-relevant statistics, brought to you by the experts at Racing Insights. • The four drivers currently below the elimination line -- Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr. and Harrison Burton -- collectively have 125 Cup Series wins. The 12 drivers above the divider have 135. • The top three in the Cup Series' most recent Bristol race in March: Hamlin, Truex, Keselowski -- all below the elimination threshold here in September. • Ford has won the last four Cup Series races with four different drivers: Chris Buescher (Watkins Glen), Joey Logano (Atlanta), Chase Briscoe (Darlington) and Harrison Burton (Daytona).