Fantasy Fastlane: Hamlin, Keselowski need strong performances after sluggish playoff starts

Extreme tire wear threw Cup Series teams for a loop during the spring race at Bristol Motor Speedway, and at a Goodyear tire test earlier this summer, much of the same transpired. That adds an element to setting the best fantasy lineup. However, Denny Hamlin is the winner of the last two Bristol races and needs to right the ship after a dismal start to the playoffs. The same could be said for Brad Keselowski, as both future Hall of Famers enter the elimination race on the outside looking in. 

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MUST START:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 4-1

The first two races in the Round of 16 can be forgotten if Hamlin advances to the Round of 12. The key word there is “if,” because it seems as though anything that can go wrong has gone wrong for Hamlin dating back to the regular season. Hamlin is among the best at Bristol, winning the last two races, leading north of 140 laps in each race. Since 2019, he’s won three of the last seven races on the concrete. 

MUST START:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 5-1

Much like Hamlin, it’s been a quiet start to the postseason for Larson, who ended the regular season with a series-high four victories. Even with a middle-of-the-road showing at Watkins Glen, Larson still stretched his point buffer on the elimination line. And even though he has just a single victory at Bristol, it ranks among his best tracks on the schedule with four straight top-five finishes. Over his last 10 starts in Thunder Valley, he has an average finish of 5.7. 

MUST START:

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 11-2

It’s beginning to look like we could see similar results to the finishing order of last year’s Bristol playoff race, but Bell is an adequate choice this weekend. He's paced the field for more than 140 laps in two of the last three races and won the pole here last fall. Bristol is among his favorite tracks on the circuit and he has three straight top-10 finishes at the half-mile bullring. Bell needs only 14 points to assure himself a spot into the Round of 12 and could easily get that accomplished during the opening two stages. 

MUST START:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 11-1

It’s all or nothing for Keselowski this weekend at Bristol. Granted, it’s a feasible task to still point into the Round of 12, entering Bristol 12 points below the elimination line. Last year, Bubba Wallace entered 19 points below and advanced. Bristol is among Keselowski’s best tracks with three victories. He led 109 laps in this race two seasons ago, while RFK teammate Chris Buescher won the race outright. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Ty Gibbs | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 54 Toyota

Odds: 17-2

The pressure is on Gibbs to perform this weekend. He enters the 500-lap event tied with Chase Briscoe for 11th on the playoff grid, six points above Hamlin. The good news for Gibbs is he has excelled at Bristol early in his Cup career. The two races in which he’s led the most laps in his career have come in the last two Bristol races, both with more than 100 circuits led. In March, he swept the opening two stages. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 12-1

If you’re a believer in momentum, Buescher has it after passing Shane van Gisbergen on the final lap at Watkins Glen to earn his first victory of 2024. He doesn’t hide his feelings on Bristol, either: it’s his favorite track on the schedule. He won the playoff race in 2022 and has four top-10 finishes in the last five races. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Carson Hocevar | View stats

Spire Motorsports, No. 77 Chevrolet

Odds: 100-1

It’s becoming a weekly occurrence that Hocevar is contesting for top-10 finishes. He’s coming off his first top-five effort in the Cup Series at Watkins Glen, in which Spire put all three cars in the top 10 for the first time in team history. Last fall, driving for Legacy Motor Club, Hocevar had his first true standout performance at the Cup level, scoring points in Stage 2 at Bristol. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 18-1

For a multitude of reasons, Reddick hasn’t had great results at Bristol. In six starts, he has a single top-10 finish and an average finish of 20.3. The Regular Season Champion should get at least two uses in the Round of 12, so it might be beneficial to save a start this weekend. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Austin Cindric | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 110-1

After finishing the regular season 19th in the standings, Cindric has capitalized on two eventful races and sits second on the playoff grid. Everything would have to go wrong to give away a 43-point buffer to the elimination line and have 10 drivers surpass him in points this weekend. But the stats don’t lie: Cindric has struggled at Bristol with an average finish of 27.7 in three starts. Still think he advances to the Round of 12.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Daniel Suárez | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet

Odds: 130-1

Like Cindric, Suárez, who finished 18th in the regular season standings, is sitting pretty entering Bristol, 35 points above the elimination line. Suárez is another driver who could put that buffer to the test, however, as his best finish in four Bristol races with Trackhouse is 18th. He’s aware that it’s a track the team hasn’t figured out, so I’d steer clear of the No. 99 car this weekend. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Denny Hamlin vs. Kyle Larson

These have been the best two drivers at Bristol in recent years and this could be among the toughest matchups of the season. The pressure is ramped up on Hamlin this weekend, who needs to race his way into the top 12 in points. Larson is in a good position, 26 points above the elimination line. Hamlin tends to rise to the occasion in pressure-packed moments, and I don’t see him crumbling under the weight of this opportunity. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Brad Keselowski vs. Martin Truex Jr.

One of the biggest mysteries of the 2024 season is what went awry with the No. 19 team. Truex has speed weekly, but a variety of late-race issues has cost him numerous top 10s. Truex has just five top-10 finishes – though he finished runner-up in the spring – in 34 Bristol starts. Keselowski is an easy choice entering this weekend.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Chase Briscoe vs. Ty Gibbs

Briscoe proved that it is possible to make up more than 20 points on the elimination line in a single race, as he experienced a 27-point swing at Watkins Glen last weekend. He was one of a few playoff drivers to not experience any woes. He believes Bristol is among Stewart-Haas Racing’s best tracks in the Next Gen era, but JGR has been that much better. Gibbs is the way to go, with consecutive top 10s compared to Briscoe’s 16.8 average finish. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Chase Elliott vs. Ryan Blaney

In 14 Bristol starts, Elliott has eight top-10 finishes and he particularly runs well in the night race. His only finish worse than eighth since 2018 in the summer race was his infamous run-in with Kevin Harvick in 2021. Blaney has run well at Bristol, leading more than 100 laps on three occasions, but he doesn’t score the finishes. The No. 12 team has one top 10 in the last six starts. 

MY LINEUP: Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Brad Keselowski, Ty Gibbs

GARAGE: Chris Buescher