Analysis: What to expect when Cup Series returns to Chicagoland Speedway

On the heels of consecutive road-course races, the Cup Series will head to the Chicago area this weekend -- but not to the streets of Grant Park, as it had in each of the previous three seasons. Instead, NASCAR will return to 1.5-mile Chicagoland Speedway in Joliet, Illinois, for the first time since 2019. And as much as that seems like it was just yesterday -- time does fly, doesn’t it? -- the previous race was so long ago that roughly half (46%) of this week’s field will be making their Cup debut at the track, with only 10 drivers having logged at least five career races there, and only three -- Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin and Alex Bowman -- having won there before. And, of course, nobody has run Chicagoland in a Next Gen car yet, until now. RELATED: Chicagoland schedule | Cup standings In other words, this is basically a brand-new track for the majority of drivers in the Cup Series. A few weeks ago, we dove into who does the best at learning new tracks, so go read that if you want to know about the “quickest studies” in the sport ahead of an unfamiliar test. But this week, we wanted to focus on the particulars and attributes of the track itself to re-familiarize ourselves with NASCAR’s latest return to a track that was previously on hiatus. Let’s start with a snapshot of how Chicagoland tended to compare with other intermediate tracks during its original run from 2001 to 2019:

When we judge Chicagoland against its fellow intermediate cousins, we see that it was relatively middle-of-the-road in many regards. The polesitter did slightly better than average, and there were slightly more lead changes per lap than the typical standard oval. At the same time, the favorite did slightly worse than average here -- though nowhere near a Daytona/Talladega level, or, among intermediates, Pocono or Texas -- and the long-term projected quality of the winner was slightly worse than the average track. There were also slightly fewer cautions per lap, and a lot fewer laps spent under caution as a share of the race (indicating longer green-flag runs than typical intermediates). The main outliers, though, were about how winners tended to get to the checkered flag. The average Driver Rating for winners within the race itself (129.2) was lower than 83% of all other intermediate tracks, meaning a winning driver was not necessarily a dominant driver. And relatedly, the eventual winner’s average starting position on the grid (14.6) was worse than any other intermediate of the era except Rockingham (14.7). That means the winner often needed to make their way from deeper in the field to the front of the pack than on the average oval -- early-race track position was less important than usual. This means the traditional book on Chicagoland, which emphasizes managing tires over the long run -- and other tactical considerations like fuel-saving (see Tony Stewart, 2011) and pit calls -- should reign supreme again this week. A fast car is nice, and so is clean air up front. But the winner tends to come from relative obscurity throughout most of the day, getting to the front at the end through a combination of smart strategy and timely passing, using the multiple grooves of the track to win late. (Or maybe just a timely slide job like in the Kyle-and-Kyle show from 2018.) In that sense, this track also drew easy comparisons with Homestead -- few other places let you run so close to the fence throughout the corner. But as a high-tire-wear mile-and-a-half track, Chicagoland also rates as similar to Kansas and, to a lesser extent, Darlington, Las Vegas, Charlotte and Texas. And I happen to have a system that, for each track, measures an average of recent Driver Ratings at similar tracks for any given stop on the schedule, weighted toward more recent results at more similar tracks. Putting the greatest emphasis on recent results at Homestead and Kansas, with some additional consideration paid to the other tracks mentioned above, here are the best (and worst) projected drivers at Chicagoland, particularly relative to their typical performance at all tracks:

Unsurprisingly, Denny Hamlin, the king of intermediates -- and the king of tire management and fuel saving -- should be the best at Chicagoland as well. (He’s also won here before, so Denny has the experience factor on his side, too.) Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick, two more of the most talented mile-and-a-half merchants in the sport, ought to also be among your favorites. But one driver who might not be is Ryan Blaney -- he doesn’t tend to do quite as well as usual at this type of track, at least not recently. The real drivers who are set to do worse here, though, are your usual road-course specialists -- Shane van Gisbergen, Michael McDowell, Connor Zilisch -- plus Ty Gibbs, Joey Logano and Ross Chastain, all of whom do worse at similar tracks than we’d expect from their overall résumé. And what implications might all of this have for the In-Season Challenge, now in its Round of 16? Here are the weekend’s matchups, compared according to projected Driver Ratings at Chicagoland:

Unsurprisingly, the matchups featuring seeded favorites Hamlin, Blaney and Chase Elliott look lopsided by this accounting. (Even a less-good-than-usual Blaney against an improving-on-ovals van Gisbergen is a matchup tilted heavily toward the No. 12 Penske car.) A few other battles look like they are fairly even matchups on paper, or could at least be highly compelling to watch -- such as Larson vs. William Byron, Christopher Bell vs. Chris Buescher and Chase Briscoe vs. Ty Gibbs. And then there’s No. 32 seed Alex Bowman, fresh off toppling top overall seed Tyler Reddick, facing No. 16 seed Austin Cindric in a matchup where the No. 48 Chevrolet could have a very real chance to grab another upset and, for the second straight year, power the 32nd seed through Round 2. Seven years is a long time in NASCAR, of course. The cars are different, the drivers are different and the standings format is different. But if Chicagoland’s historical tendencies hold, the winner will probably come from somewhere other than the front of the field for much of the day -- and he’ll probably get there by being smarter than everybody else.