Analysis: What opening Chase race trends say about championship aspirations

The goal over the next 10 weeks is simple -- accumulate the most points to win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship. But with the return of The Chase presented by Mobil 1, where eliminations, rounds and a winner-take-all finale are a thing of the past, this year will require teaching new dogs some old tricks. No. 1 seed Denny Hamlin and fellow Chase competitor Joey Logano are the only drivers with experience in the first iteration of The Chase from 2004-2013, and neither was successful in hoisting the trophy after 36 races in that postseason format. RELATED: Darlington weekend schedule | How The Chase works The points payout and seeding have changed for the return of The Chase, but there are still ties that bind the old and new Chase eras that will need to be tracked during Sunday's Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway (5 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

WIN OR FINISH TOP FIVE IN THE OPENING RACE OF THE CHASE

At a 20-point differential, the points payout has never been wider between going to Victory Lane and being runner-up in The Chase. In the first run of the postseason format, three champions won the opening event in The Chase: Kurt Busch (2004), Tony Stewart (2011), Brad Keselowski (2012). Both Busch and Stewart started their respective title campaigns in those seasons outside the top five in points. Busch started the inaugural Chase in seventh, while a winless regular season for Stewart in 2011 placed him ninth on the Chase grid. Two-time defending Southern 500 winner Chase Briscoe and 2023 Southern 500 champion Kyle Larson should both have their ears perked up as Briscoe seeks to become the first driver since Jeff Gordon in the late 1990s to win three consecutive Southern 500s, and Larson has yet to pick up a 2026 victory amid a current 50-race winless streak. If a win isn't in the cards, maximizing points will also do the trick, as the champions in The Chase format finished fifth or better in seven of the 10 previous Chase years. The non-winners of the opening Chase race that went on to be champions were Stewart (2005) and Jimmie Johnson (2008, 2009, 2013). The caveat is that Stewart and Johnson started The Chase in the top three, which leaves just Hamlin, Ryan Blaney and Tyler Reddick who trend toward winning the title with a great points day at the "Lady in Black."

DARLINGTON MULLIGAN? BETTER PULL OFF FEATS OF A SEVEN-TIME CHAMP

In the old Chase era, the average combined finish of all the champions was 6.98 across 10 seasons. Being a champion in this format requires near-perfection and rarely allows any slip-ups during the 10-week streak. However, Johnson, a seven-time Cup Series champion, had slip-ups during his legendary five-year title run. Starting The Chase as the No. 2 seed in 2006, Johnson crashed at New Hampshire in the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet and finished 39th to start the postseason. He dropped to ninth after Loudon, but went on to finish second or better in five of the last six Chase races to surge from eighth to first in four races to hoist his first Cup championship. In 2010, Johnson was also involved in an incident in the New Hampshire Chase opener and had to limp around the 1-mile oval to a 25th-place result. Dropping from second to sixth, Johnson went on a scorcher of a run for the final nine races, winning at Dover and finishing no worse than ninth to outduel Hamlin for the series crown at the Homestead-Miami Speedway finale. But could anyone in 2026 truly start off with a mulligan and still go on to win the championship? The answer may only be Hamlin by default of his 25-point advantage to start The Chase. And looking at consecutive top-10 streaks from this year, it's the cream of the crop from the regular season that truly can still have hopes if Darlington turns into a bust for them. MORE: Can Hamlin finally finish the job? | Ranking all 16 Cup Chase drivers Blaney had the longest top-10 streak of the year at eight races between the Coca-Cola 600 and his EchoPark Speedway win in July. Gibbs put together seven consecutive top-10 runs at the start of the season, from Circuit of The Americas to Kansas Speedway. Then, it's Hamlin who had five straight recently from North Wilkesboro to New Hampshire. Every other Chase driver had four or fewer consecutive top-10 finishes this year, with Daniel Suárez being the only title-eligible driver not to score consecutive top 10s during the regular season. Since becoming a postseason curtain-jerker in 2020, Darlington has stifled those competing for the championship. Chase drivers have DNF'd a combined 10 times in the five Southern 500s that started the former playoff format and on 37 combined occasions, title-eligible drivers finished outside the top 15. Darlington has proven to be a tough host to start one's dreams of winning NASCAR's top prize, and there's an equal chance that Sunday will either show the Chase standings as we expected or will completely rewrite what to expect for the remainder of the Chase's return. [caption id="attachment_524516" align="aligncenter" width="1300"]David Jensen | Getty Images[/caption]