Analysis: How Kyle Larson’s rivals can still steal the Cup championship
Neil Paine
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Moving away from the previous iteration of NASCAR Playoffs, with its wild chaos around cut-off races each round, one of the concerns around (re-)introducing The Chase presented by Mobil 1 might have been its relative stability -- what happens when a single race can no longer completely upend the championship picture by explicitly eliminating certain drivers?Well, if the past two weeks have proven anything, it’s that the new/current system can also provide plenty of dramatic reversals of fortune on its own.A week after a disastrous run at Phoenix had Kyle Larson in a real title-race fight for the first time in many weeks, The Chase showed it could giveth as well as taketh away. While many of Larson’s chief rivals were getting caught up in big wrecks and/or finding other ways to ruin their days, Larson showcased the perseverance to survive dropping back to 11th place on the final lap, the drafting skills to work his way back toward the front of the field along the backstretch, and the split-second instincts to make the winning move through the tri-oval and secure his third victory in the eight-race span of The Chase thus far. It was the kind of brilliant win that made you wonder why Larson had never won at a superspeedway before this past weekend. But it also put his competitors in a very tight spot, with only two races to go on the 2026 Chase calendar.Not only does Larson currently lead the standings again -- as has been the case each of the past six weeks, since Bristol -- but his 73-point cushion over second-ranked Denny Hamlin is the largest lead he (or anyone else) has held at any point during the 2026 Chase.That’s bad news for the rest of the field, because there’s less time than ever -- just two remaining races -- in which to potentially catch Larson. It’s not mathematically impossible to do so; Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney and Tyler Reddick are not eliminated from championship consideration yet. But their paths are getting more and more narrow.If Larson scores 27 points over the next two races, for instance, Reddick cannot possibly beat him even if the No. 45 team scores maximum points (across stages, race finishes and the fastest lap). That figure is 46 points for Larson versus Blaney, and 53 for Larson versus Logano. Seeing as how Larson averaged about 65 points per every two races this season, and 76 points at a combination of short flat tracks (like Martinsville) and high tire-wear intermediate tracks (like Homestead), even perfect performances from the Nos. 12 and 22 Penske teams probably won’t be enough to avoid elimination.That leaves Hamlin, Bell and possibly Briscoe as the only drivers with a realistic shot at pulling off the comeback and outdueling Larson down The Chase’s stretch run. So what can each do to keep their championship hopes alive?Chase Briscoe (-79 points):Briscoe could have a shot if things come down to Homestead-Miami, given his recent surge at intermediate tracks -- as we just saw him rattle off back-to-back wins at Las Vegas and Charlotte, which are mile-and-a-half tracks in the same family as Homestead. In fact, almost all of his championship-winning simulations (91%) in my forecast model featured a Homestead victory.But to get the chance to make that scenario happen, Briscoe needs much better results at Martinsville than he’s gotten recently. Over the past five Cup races at "The Paperclip," Briscoe has finished better than 10th just once -- a ninth-place run in March 2025. If Briscoe scores his average of 27 points per Martinsville race from over that span, Larson would need to score only 24 to eliminate the No. 19 from title eligibility.Christopher Bell (-74 points):With a real shot to take down Larson within his grasp at Talladega, an early unforced error on pit road effectively squandered any hopes Bell had to capitalize on that opportunity. Now down 74 points, he must have near-perfect drives for two consecutive races and hope Larson suffers the same kind of mistakes that derailed the No. 20 car a week ago.Working in Bell’s favor is, as we highlighted last week, his success on short and/or flat tracks like Martinsville. He has an average finish of 8.0 in eight races on that category of track this season, with six top 10s and four top fives. (At Martinsville specifically, his past three finishes are second, seventh and seventh.) And his performance on intermediate ovals this season -- including a Southern 500 victory, a runner-up finish at Chicagoland and second-place runs at both Charlotte races -- offers reason to believe he could deliver a big result at Homestead.Denny Hamlin (-73 points):For most of the summer and into the opening weeks of The Chase, it seemed like this was finally the year for Hamlin to win his first-ever championship. But as The Chase schedule has worn on, the shine has worn off of Denny’s title hopes. It isn’t like he’s necessarily driven poorly in The Chase; his average finish is 11.9 over those eight races -- with five top 10s and an average Driver Rating of 93.2, totally respectable numbers. But “respectable” isn’t what wins championships, and Hamlin seemed to know that in the wake of Talladega.“Truthfully, [Larson has] done a lot of things right, and a lot of things have really gone right, and we’ve not done that,” Hamlin said.Certainly, two merely solid Hamlin weekends won’t erase a 73-point deficit -- he needs wins, and he needs them right now. If Hamlin wins twice at the average points per race from his wins this season (64.3), Larson would need to score at least 57 points across Martinsville and Homestead in order to clinch the championship. That’s not an impossibly high bar regardless -- Larson has scored at least 29 points in 21 of 34 races this season, or 61.8% -- but it would put pressure on the No. 5 team to summon a baseline level of performance to hold off Hamlin.But does Denny have that kind of run left in the tank? Maybe Martinsville, where he’s won more of those iconic grandfather clocks than any other active full-time driver, is the start of one last, improbable comeback.