Fantasy Update: Last-minute Richmond lineup, props advice

Brad Keselowski is on the pole for Saturday night's Federated Auto Parts 400 (7:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN/NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Is the Team Penske driver worthy of a lineup spot with how good the bulk of the Joe Gibbs Racing cars have looked this weekend? And how should you navigate the playoff game format? We’ve dissected the numbers to offer a suggested lineup worthy of your Fantasy Live consideration.

PLAY NOW: Set your lineup | How the game works | Tips to set your lineup

RJ Kraft’s Fantasy Live lineup for race day at Richmond: Playoff driver 1: Denny Hamlin Playoff driver 2: Kevin Harvick Non-playoff driver 1: Jimmie Johnson Non-playoff driver 2: Matt DiBenedetto Garage: Kyle Busch

RELATED: Odds for Richmond | Lap averages | Weekend preview Analysis: Hamlin was the best car in final practice topping the 5-, 10-, 15-, 20-, 25- and 30-lap board. Factor in a strong Richmond and short-track history -- he's the only driver to score top fives in all four short-track races this year -- and he's in. Harvick's lap averages showed a significant lack of fall off over the long run and he has eight top-five finishes in his last 10 starts here. For the non-playoff plays, I am not particularly jazzed by Johnson's lap averages, but I love the recent Richmond history. He has no finish outside the top 12 in his last 10 starts at the 0.75-mile track. I'll play those odds especially when he has the best starting spot among the non-playoff field. My second spot in this group goes to DiBenedetto, who I planned to avoid coming into the weekend. The long-run lap averages and lack of fall off over that is the main reason for the play. The other reasons are I wasn't thrilled by Austin Dillon's lap averages and I seem to get burned every time I play Daniel Suarez. In the garage, this choice came down to Busch, Truex and Keselowski. Their lap averages are pretty much in the same ballpark and the recent Richmond stats favor the two Gibbs drivers a bit more. I think something is a little off with the 18 camp, but the Richmond record and 2019 short-track stats -- like Hamlin and Bowyer, he has top-10 finishes in every short track race this year; Busch has three top-five finishes. That gives him a slight nod over the most recent race winner at Richmond (Truex) and the pole winner for tonight's race (Keselowski). For the bonus picks, I will take Harvick to win Stage 1 with Hamlin the rest of the way. I'll double down on the manufacturer since Toyota has won three in a row at Richmond and six of the last eight as well. Each week in this space, we’ll also highlight two Props Challenge items for players. MORE: Need Props help? The Action Network has you covered | Play the Props Challenge today 1. O/U 1.5 drivers lead at least 100 laps. In three of the last four races at Richmond -- all under the lights -- only one driver has led more than 100 laps. Usually, the next highest total for a leader is in the low 90s. The one time there were two to lead over 100 it was in the spring and the second driver barely went over 100 with 101 laps led. I'm taking the UNDER here. 2. Which playoff driver below the cutoff line will finish higher: Erik Jones or Kurt Busch. The short-run lap averages favor Jones, while the long-run averages favor Busch. The recent Richmond numbers also favor the 2004 champion so I am going with BUSCH on this prop.