Analysis: Don’t count out Shane van Gisbergen just yet

To say the learning curve has been steep in Shane van Gisbergen’s first full Cup Series season would be a massive understatement. After winning his debut NASCAR race (at any level) on the Chicago Street Course in 2023, then performing well in a full-time Xfinity Series ride last year — while also holding his own in part-time Cup action — SVG seemed as ready for the sport’s highest level as anyone could be. But facing the best week-in and week-out, on a variety of different track types, is an entirely different challenge. That’s something van Gisbergen has found out the hard way in 2025 thus far, proving that sustained success isn’t guaranteed for even the most talented and experienced drivers. But despite the rough transition, there might still be light in his playoff hopes this year. Based on the upcoming schedule — starting with this weekend’s Viva Mexico 250 in Mexico City — we might just be entering SVG season after all. RELATED: Cup Series standings | Shane van Gisbergen driver page Based on the first half of the 2025 season alone, that might sound like an extreme long shot. After all, SVG’s performance is down markedly from what we might have expected from his 2024 form: His average Driver Rating in the Cup Series had been 64.7 in 12 starts — not too far from the series average of around 70 — and in Xfinity, it had been even better, 76.9 in 33 races. And yet, despite that prior record, van Gisbergen has an average rating of just 48.1 in 15 races, which ranks 33rd out of 36 full-time drivers this season.

The race-level results aren’t any better, either. Coming off of an 18th-place run at Michigan — one of his better finishes this season, despite running worse than the placement would indicate (he ranked 24th in Driver Rating and 28th in average running position) — van Gisbergen has zero wins, zero top fives, a single top 10 (more below) and an average finish of 25.3, earning him a 33rd-place ranking in the standings. In terms of road-racing prowess, the bread-and-butter of SVG’s racing background, his form has remained very strong, albeit in a sample of just one race (COTA) 15 weeks ago. SVG led 23 of 95 laps, finished top five in the first two stages and posted a 120.5 Driver Rating — second-highest in the field — en route to finishing sixth. But the rest has been nothing short of disappointing. After doing well at drafting-style tracks and running decently on traditional ovals in Xfinity last season, there was the hope that he would consistently turn in respectable performances in both categories this Cup season. But van Gisbergen has a sub-50 rating on each track type so far, ranking fourth-worst on ovals and third-worst on drafting tracks — a costly collapse, considering those tracks have made up 12 of the 15 races on the schedule so far. And while we knew short tracks would probably be a weakness this season, SVG’s abysmal 28.3 average rating there (again, in a small sample — two races: Martinsville and Bristol) has been the worst in Cup so far this season. Not only that, but it’s currently tracking as the 21st-lowest average rating on short tracks in a season since 2005, with a minimum of two races on those tracks in a season. MORE: Mexico City weekend schedule None of that would seem to paint the portrait of a driver with playoff potential written all over him. To channel legendary football coach Jim Mora: "Playoffs?" A driver with these stats might just be hoping to stay in Cup! But of course, van Gisbergen isn’t just any driver. He’s arguably the most gifted — and feared — road-course specialist in the sport today. See those road-racing stats from earlier: even in an otherwise bad year, he still was a threat to dominate when last we saw him darting around the track in Austin. Now, after a long and mostly miserable stretch without a road course in sight, van Gisbergen will be back in his element again. Including this week’s race, three of the next five dates on the Cup calendar are road courses: Mexico City — a new Cup Series track where SVG might have an extra advantage, given his history of adapting to relatively unknown circuits — Chicago Street Course — where SVG has a win — and Sonoma — where he won from pole position in Xfinity last year. And if he doesn’t win any of those, there’s also Watkins Glen — where he scored a 2nd-place finish in his lone career start — as one additional chance with three races to go before the playoff field is set:

In other words, as rough as things have been early this season for the full-time Cup rookie, van Gisbergen can play a unique trump card that gives him far higher playoff odds than would otherwise be expected from his full-season numbers. He is a near-automatic favorite (or close to it) on a specific type of track — and those tracks are about to come up fast and furious as we look ahead to the regular-season stretch run. While the odds for Mexico City haven’t come out yet, my statistical track scouting system lists SVG as the best bet to win based on his overall road-course pedigree. It would be shocking if SVG didn’t have a strong run this weekend. And that’s the beauty of a NASCAR playoff system that rewards winning over just about everything else: A single standout performance on one of the upcoming road courses could instantly transform van Gisbergen’s frustrating year into another winning season — and a playoff campaign. If there's anyone built to pull that dramatic turnaround off in the next handful of weeks, it’s SVG.