As summer rapidly approaches, it signals the push to the Cup Series Playoffs. While 12 weeks feels like plenty of time to punch a ticket to the 2025 postseason, the Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway will be here before we know it.
To help build the picture leading to September, the Field of 16 playoff predictor returns to take a look at where Cup drivers shake out from week to week until the 16-man postseason grid is set at Daytona International Speedway at the end of August. Nine drivers have already secured a spot in the playoffs, but let’s take a look at who is in a good spot heading to Michigan on Sunday (2 p.m. ET, Prime Video, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) and who could be on the clock during the 400-miler in the Irish Hills.
RELATED: Michigan schedule | Cup Series standings
GREEN FLAG [Drivers in a great spot for Michigan]
Tyler Reddick (99.21% playoff probability) snapped a nine-race win streak by Ford at the two-mile oval last season. I’d expect the No. 45 driver to be a player to defend his win, but I’m all in on Ford getting back to Victory Lane and the manufacturer’s home track.
This is the race all of RFK Racing should have circled to get one of their cars into the winner’s circle. Chris Buescher (44.69% playoff probability) won at Michigan in 2023 while owner/driver Brad Keselowski (17.54% playoff probability) has scored the second most points in the three Gen 7 races at the track (117). Ryan Preece (26.46% playoff probability) has also been steady on bigger ovals this year with top 10s at Las Vegas, Homestead, Kansas and Charlotte.
Two major wild cards I’m watching this weekend are Michigan natives Carson Hocevar (29.76% playoff probability) and Erik Jones (4.22% playoff probability). With both coming off top 10s at Nashville, a bit of home track buzz could really put one of these two rising contenders in the right opportunity to cash in Sunday. The No. 43 has two top 10s in the last three Michigan races, while Hocevar was 10th in his lone Cup start at the track last year.
YELLOW FLAG [Drivers in a good spot, but have poor Michigan stats]
Chase Briscoe enters this weekend with a 79.17% playoff probability. However, a pole win at Nashville did little to nothing to improve the No. 19 driver’s playoff hopes as he finished down in 17th. While Briscoe was in a different car in prior outings at Michigan, he’s finished 31st in the last two Cup races there and has said this season how much he’s had to adapt at Joe Gibbs Racing.
No matter if he wins or not before the Southern 500, Chase Elliott will likely make the playoffs. He’s got a whopping 153-point cushion to the provisional elimination line and his consistency can’t be argued with the third-best average finish in the field this season (11.5). But the summertime has been known to stifle Hendrick Motorsports over the years, minus the organization’s most recent champion Kyle Larson, and Elliott’s last three outings at Michigan have left a lot to be desired, with a best finish of just 11th in 2022.
RACING INSIGHTS: Results projections for Michigan
RED FLAG [Drivers I’m concerned about heading to Michigan]
Back to Hendrick Motorsports, Alex Bowman (43.69% playoff probability) looked like a playoff lock early in the season with top 10s in five of the first six races. But the No. 48 driver has gone ice cold since Martinsville with finishes of 27th or worse in six of the last eight races. The positive? Bowman has top fives at Homestead and Kansas this season. However, the Tucson, Arizona native only owns one Michigan top 10 in his last six starts.
Owning a slim two-point buffer with the last playoff spot at the moment, Kyle Busch (35.12% playoff probability) will have eyes plastered on him all weekend. The problem hasn’t been the speed in the No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet, it’s been being on the wrong side of luck for the last two years. Busch finished fourth at Michigan last year and he’s been tenacious, maximizing results in the last two weeks, but the team needs to put the speed in the car to be a factor this weekend.
MORE: Fantasy Fastlane: Michigan