Martin Truex Jr. won the Busch Pole Qualifying Award and will start in the top position for Saturday’s Quaker State 400 presented by Walmart (7:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) at Kentucky Speedway. After two practice sessions and qualifying, we’ve dissected the numbers to offer a suggested lineup worthy of your Fantasy Live consideration as you go to make roster decisions for the 19th Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race of 2018. Remember that the garage locks at the end of Stage 2.
To the rear: Kyle Larson (missed driver intros)
Editor’s note: Even with this news, Larson is staying in my lineup as my garage play.
RJ Kraft’s revised Fantasy Live lineup following practices and the lineup being set:
1: Martin Truex Jr.
2: Kevin Harvick
3: Kyle Busch
4: Brad Keselowski
5: Erik Jones
Garage: Kyle Larson
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MORE: Fantasy analysis for Kentucky | Driver stats | Full lineup | 10-lap averages
Analysis: With eight races to go in the regular season, the gloves are off. No more saving uses. This is the last race at a 1.5-mile track until the playoffs, so it’s fantasy go time.
The Big 3 of Truex Jr., Harvick and Busch were locks for me from the get-go. Their numbers on intermediates over the past two years are ridiculous and they have been the three best cars all year. If you have the uses, like I do — entering Saturday night I have five uses left on Busch and Truex and three on Harvick — you HAVE to play them. I’m holding onto Larson, but shifting him to the garage since my other five drivers will make up the top five starting spots in Saturday’s field. Larson has scored the third-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this season and was the runner-up from the back at Kentucky last year. Let’s not forget, he started 18th at the last 1.5-mile track (Chicago) and finished second. Guess where he starts tonight? 18th.
Originally, I had Kurt Busch and Joey Logano in my lineup. Busch has had a respectable showing this weekend but I found an option that I liked better. The speed on the No. 22 just seems off here and his two Penske teammates have been faster so I am taking Logano out of my lineup as well. In place of those two, I am rostering Jones and Keselowski. Fresh off his Daytona victory, Jones has been fast so far this weekend, has the ninth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks and finished sixth here in 2018. Initially, I was trying to save Keselowski with just three uses left, but the 2 crew looks too good to bench. Combine that with his three wins here — in an every other year sequence of 2012, 2014, 2016 — and one could theorize that history and trends suggest it’s Kes’ time to shine. I like the 2012 champ at New Hampshire, Pocono and Watkins Glen as well, so I am going to have to sacrifice at least one of those if this decision works. Like I said earlier, it’s go time, so I will pay the piper on his usage sooner rather than later. Frankly, I’m OK with that.
On the bonus picks, I am splitting everything between the Big 3 with Truex in Stage 1, Kyle Busch in Stage 2 and Harvick for the win.