Kurt Busch grabbed my attention by winning the Busch Pole Qualifying Award and showing speed in practice before Sunday’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 (1 p.m. ET on NBCSN, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. After three practice sessions and qualifying, we’ve dissected the numbers to offer a suggested lineup worthy of your Fantasy Live consideration as you make roster decisions for the 20th Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race of 2018.
Remember that the start time has moved up an hour to 1 p.m. ET and the garage locks at the end of Stage 2.
RJ Kraft’s revised Fantasy Live lineup following practices and the lineup being set:
1: Kyle Busch
2: Martin Truex Jr.
3: Brad Keselowski
4: Denny Hamlin
5: Kurt Busch
Garage: Ryan Blaney
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MORE: Fantasy analysis for New Hampshire | Driver stats | Full lineup | 10-lap averages
Analysis: I’m keeping Kyle Busch, Truex Jr., Keselowski and Hamlin from my original lineup. That foursome has looked solid this weekend and have strong histories at the “Magic Mile.” I had Clint Bowyer and Kyle Larson in my original lineup, but I am valuing track position to get stage points at a track where it is known to be tough to pass. Because of that I am swapping both of them out, although I debated the Larson decision for a bit since I have four uses left. However, I liked some other plays better this weekend, and Larson will be solid at Pocono, Michigan, Bristol and Darlington.
To round out my main lineup, I’m taking Kurt Busch. I wrote about avoiding him earlier this week, but he has shown plenty of speed this weekend by sitting on the pole and posting the fourth-best 10-lap average in final practice. While he has just four top 10s in his last 14 starts at New Hampshire, two of those top 10s have come in the last three starts. He also has an average of 39 points in the two 1-mile-track races this season at ISM (Phoenix) and Dover. Stats can paint a picture entering a race weekend, but speed talks as well — and the 2004 champion has it.
For my garage, I’m turning to Ryan Blaney. YRB had the best 10-lap average in second practice and was sixth on the 10-lap board in final practice. I went back and forth between him and Erik Jones, but I’m giving the edge to the Team Penske driver.
For the stage and race-winner picks, I’m going with Martin Truex Jr. to take both stages and Kevin Harvick — who was freaky fast in Saturday’s practices — for the race win. I only have two uses left with Harvick and I’m locked on playing him at Michigan and Darlington, so I want to save the use but still try to get some points from him.