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Fantasy Fastlane: Pure Michigan 400
By RJ Kraft | Published: August 21, 2016 16
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the outlook for the top drivers as well as two sleepers, two value plays and No. 88 fill-in Alex Bowman based on NASCAR Fantasy Live prices. NASCAR.com fantasy expert RJ Kraft breaks down the drivers you want in your lineup and which drivers you want to avoid for this week.
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Alex Bowman
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 ChevroletLearn more about Bowman
Fantasy Live price: $17.00
Fastlane forecast: Bowman will make a second start filling in for the sidelined Dale Earnhardt Jr. The young driver had a better run last month at New Hampshire than his finishing position (26th) showed. The price makes it a tricky call, but if you have some drivers discounted, he's a good play.
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Chase Elliott
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 ChevroletLearn more about Elliott
Fantasy Live price: $24.25
Fastlane forecast: Elliott notched a runner-up finish here in June and led 35 circuits, in what is his most recent top-10 finish in 2016. The rookie has had some success on the bigger tracks this year, making him a solid play in the Irish Hills.
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Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 ToyotaLearn more about Hamlin
Fantasy Live price: $25.00
Fastlane forecast: Since notching his second win in the Irish Hills, Hamlin has run into some tough times at Michigan with five finishes of 29th-or-worse in the past 10 races. Still, the 11 team has built momentum in recent weeks and is a sound price.
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Martin Truex Jr.
Furniture Row Racing, No. 78 ToyotaLearn more about Truex
Fantasy Live price: $26.25
Fastlane forecast: Truex has three third-place finishes at the 2-mile track in his last seven starts. Having a Toyota in your lineup is strongly advisable, but this play may come down to what price you have the driver of the No. 78 at.
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Kurt Busch
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 ChevroletLearn more about Kurt Busch
Fantasy Live price: $26.50
Fastlane forecast: Despite three career wins at Michigan, the 2004 champ has a 20.2 average finish here. That stat is backed up by the fact that Busch has just three top 10s in his last 12 starts in the Irish Hills. Tough to justify the play at this price.
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Carl Edwards
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 ToyotaLearn more about Edwards
Fantasy Live price: $26.75
Fastlane forecast: Edwards has two wins at Michigan -- but the most recent came in 2008. Still, the JGR driver has the second-best average finish among active drivers (9.5) and the third-best driver rating (101.3). Expect Carl to make a charge.
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Joey Logano
Team Penske, No. 22 FordLearn more about Logano
Fantasy Live price: $26.75
Fastlane forecast: Logano is a two-time winner at Michigan and won here with a further reduced downforce package that will be run again. With seven straight top-10 finishes here and 332 laps led in that span, build a lineup around him.
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Matt Kenseth
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 ToyotaLearn more about Kenseth
Fantasy Live price: $27.25
Fastlane forecast: Kenseth is a three-time winner at Michigan and the defending race winner. For his career at the 2-mile track, the 2003 champ has the third-best average finish (10.3) and the second-best driver rating (102.7). Kick it with Kenseth.
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Brad Keselowski
Team Penske, No. 2 FordLearn more about Keselowski
Fantasy Live price: $27.50
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has yet to win at his hometrack. The 2012 champ has five straight top 10s at Michigan and has not finished no worse than 13th in the past 10 races there. Logano is the better Penske play, but Kes is a solid buy.
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Kyle Busch
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 ToyotaLearn more about Kyle Busch
Fantasy Live price: $28.00
Fastlane forecast: The defending series champion has one win at Michigan but statistically the 2-mile track is one of his worst -- 20.5 average finish and five finishes of 31st or worse in his past six races there. This is a good week to look elsewhere.
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Kevin Harvick
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 ChevroletLearn more about Harvick
Fantasy Live price: $28.25
Fastlane forecast: The Bristol winner may have just one win in the Irish Hills, but the 2014 champion has been a runner-up machine here with five second-place finishes in the past seven races. The SHR driver is a great play this weekend.
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SLEEPER PICK
Jamie McMurray
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 ChevroletLearn more about McMurray
Fantasy Live price: $23.50
Fastlane forecast: The surging McMurray has the fifth-best average finish here (11.6) over the past five races and four top 10s in the past six races in '16.
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SLEEPER PICK
Paul Menard
Richard Childress Racing, No. 27 ChevroletLearn more about Menard
Fantasy Live price: $18.00
Fastlane forecast: Michigan is one of Menard's best tracks with a 9.2 average finish over the past five races there. The call of the Neon Knight beckons.
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VALUE PLAY
Danica Patrick
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 ChevroletLearn more about Patrick
Fantasy Live price: $14.25
Fastlane forecast: Looking for place differential, start here. At Michigan, Danica has a +5.7 place differential; +8 in her past six races in ’16.
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VALUE PLAY
Brian Scott
Richard Petty Motorsports, No. 44 FordLearn more about Scott
Fantasy Live price: $6.00
Fastlane forecast: The rookie is making strides. Over the past four races, Scott has a +7.5 average place differential, making for a nice low-cost option.