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Fantasy Fastlane: AAA Texas 500
By RJ Kraft | Published: October 31, 2016 15
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the outlook for the top drivers as well as two sleepers and two value plays based on NASCAR Fantasy Live prices. NASCAR.com fantasy expert RJ Kraft breaks down the drivers you want in your lineup and which drivers you want to avoid for this week.
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Chase Elliott
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 ChevroletLearn more about Elliott
Fantasy Live price: $25.25
Fastlane forecast: Elliott's first career top-five finish in the top series came at Texas. What makes the rookie really intriguing this weekend is his laps led in the Chase. Elliott has paced the field for 182 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in the playoffs. He is a solid play for this race.
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Carl Edwards
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 ToyotaLearn more about Edwards
Fantasy Live price: $25.75
Fastlane forecast: Edwards has three wins at Texas, but the last one came in 2008. He was strong here in the spring, scoring the pole position and leading 124 laps. But his Chase performances (and his second half of '16) have been uneven, making him quite a gamble.
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Jimmie Johnson
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 ChevroletLearn more about Johnson
Fantasy Live price: $26.25
Fastlane forecast: Johnson is locked into the Championship 4 and still a big favorite at Texas. He has six wins at this track – including four straight in the Chase race. His laps led (1023) and driver rating (107.8) are best in the loop data era. Build around 'Six-Time.'
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Matt Kenseth
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 ToyotaLearn more about Kenseth
Fantasy Live price: $26.50
Fastlane forecast: Kenseth has two Texas wins. Despite finishing outside the top 10 in four of the past six races there, he holds the top average running position (9.195) and second-best driver rating (104.9) in the loop data era. The veteran's strong Chase should continue.
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Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 ToyotaLearn more about Hamlin
Fantasy Live price: $26.75
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin swept the 2010 races at Texas and had eight top 10s in his first 11 starts there. Since the sweep, he has just two top 10s in 10 starts since. The veteran has been inconsistent on intermediate tracks all year so it's advisable to look elsewhere.
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Brad Keselowski
Team Penske, No. 2 FordLearn more about Keselowski
Fantasy Live price: $27.00
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski dominated this race last fall – to the tune of 312 laps led, but was overtaken by Jimmie Johnson late. The 2012 champion has been solid at Texas with six top 10s and 551 laps led in the last eight races there. Kes is a solid Lone Star State play.
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Martin Truex Jr.
Furniture Row Racing, No. 78 ToyotaLearn more about Truex
Fantasy Live price: $27.25
Fastlane forecast: Truex may be out of the Chase but he is still a fantasy force as evidenced by his Martinsville run. He was stout at Texas in the spring, leading a race-high 141 laps. He has three-straight top 10s here and has been a beast at this track type all year. Roll with Truex.
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Joey Logano
Team Penske, No. 22 FordLearn more about Logano
Fantasy Live price: $27.50
Fastlane forecast: Logano has one win at Texas and his overall numbers favor the spring race a bit. He has led just 10 laps on 1.5-mile tracks since Las Vegas in March but does have has three top-three finishes since at that track type. That said, the price is a bit on the high side.
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Kyle Busch
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 ToyotaLearn more about Kyle Busch
Fantasy Live price: $27.75
Fastlane forecast: The defending series champ has two wins at Texas, including a victory in the spring. In his last seven starts here, Busch has finished outside the top four just once. He has also led the third-most laps (739) in the loop data era. Roll with 'Rowdy' at Texas.
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Kevin Harvick
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 ChevroletLearn more about Harvick
Fantasy Live price: $28.00
Fastlane forecast: Texas is one of four active tracks where Harvick has yet to win. However, he does have three top-three finishes in his last four starts here. The No. 4 team is in a bit of a Chase hole—which is when it is at its best. Don't shy away from 'Happy.'
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SLEEPER PICK
Jamie McMurray
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 ChevroletLearn more about McMurray
Fantasy Live price: $22.75
Fastlane forecast: Over the past five races at Texas, McMurray has the fifth-best average finish (10.2) and three top 10s to boot. He also has an average place differential of +8 per race over that time.
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SLEEPER PICK
Alex Bowman
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 ChevroletLearn more about Bowman
Fantasy Live price: $16.75
Fastlane forecast: The speed has been there in Bowman's turns driving the 88. With two top 10s in his three starts at 1.5-mile tracks, the young driver is a good play with the bonus of being in the car for the final races.
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VALUE PLAY
Michael McDowell
Circle Sport – Leavine Family Racing, No. 95 ChevroletLearn more about McDowell
Fantasy Live price: $9.50
Fastlane forecast: McDowell has been a place-differential machine over the past month, with an average gain of +12.3 spots from start to finish in his past four races. Hard to beat that value.
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VALUE PLAY
Landon Cassill
Front Row Motorsports, No. 38 FordLearn more about Cassill
Fantasy Live price: $6.75
Fastlane forecast: In his last two Texas starts, Cassill has an average place differential of +9.5. In his last four races this year, that number is +8.5. That's consistency for a low price.