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Fantasy Fastlane: Auto Club 400
By RJ Kraft | Published: March 21, 2017 15
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the outlook for the top drivers as well as three sleepers and three value plays based on NASCAR Fantasy Live prices. NASCAR.com fantasy expert RJ Kraft breaks down the drivers you want in your lineup for this week.
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Kurt Busch
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 FordLearn more about Kurt Busch
Fantasy Live price: $22.75
Fastlane forecast: Busch has one win at Fontana in 2003. He has posted solid results at the 2-mile track with seven top 10s in his last 10 starts – including two third-place showings in three years with SHR. Recent struggles have brought the price to the right number.
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Matt Kenseth
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 ToyotaLearn more about Kenseth
Fantasy Live price: $25.75
Fastlane forecast: Kenseth has three wins at Auto Club. In his first 15 starts here, he had 11 top 10s; in his last nine starts, he has just four top 10s. The JGR cars have been a little off, and combined with his up-and-down California history make Kenseth a risky play.
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Jimmie Johnson
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 ChevroletLearn more about Johnson
Fantasy Live price: $26.50
Fastlane forecast: The defending race winner has the most wins (six) and laps led (980) among all drivers at Auto Club. Johnson has the top driver rating and best average finish (6.5) among drivers with multiple starts. Even with the slow start, Johnson is a solid play.
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Kyle Busch
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 ToyotaLearn more about Kyle Busch
Fantasy Live price: $27.00
Fastlane forecast: Busch nearly had the win at Phoenix, but Auto Club is his best track on the NASCAR Goes West swing. The 2015 champion has three wins at the 2-mile track and 604 laps led in his career here. 'Rowdy' is a strong play this weekend.
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Kyle Larson
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 ChevroletLearn more about Larson
Fantasy Live price: $27.25
Fastlane forecast: With four runner-up finishes in his last five Monster Energy Cup Series races and a lead on Daytona's final lap, no driver has been closer to Victory Lane. Larson loves to ride the high line and that can be done here -- see his second-place finish in '14.
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Chase Elliott
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 ChevroletLearn more about Elliott
Fantasy Live price: $27.50
Fastlane forecast: Elliott's lone start at the 2-mile track resulted in a sixth-place finish. The real reason to like Elliott this week is his success at Auto Club's sister track at Michigan, where he has two runner-up finishes in two starts and led 66 laps last year.
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Kevin Harvick
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 FordLearn more about Harvick
Fantasy Live price: $27.75
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has one win at Fontana and two straight runner-up finishes at what is considered to be the Bakersfield native's home track. The No. 4 team has been off in qualifying the past two weeks, but we expect that to change and for him to log laps out front.
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Joey Logano
Team Penske, No. 22 FordLearn more about Logano
Fantasy Live price: $28.00
Fastlane forecast: Logano's top-10 finishes streak ended at nine, but he should bounce right back. He has three top-seven finishes in his last four starts at the 2-mile track. Logano is primed to visit Victory Lane soon, and this could be the place.
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SLEEPER PICK: Erik Jones
Furniture Row Racing, No. 77 ToyotaLearn more about Jones
Fantasy Live price: $19.25
Fastlane forecast: The rookie posted his first top-10 finish in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series at Phoenix. Jones has been making some steady gains over the first month, so now is a good time to jump in.
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SLEEPER PICK: Clint Bowyer
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 FordLearn more about Bowyer
Fantasy Live price: $16.25
Fastlane forecast: Bowyer's last few Auto Club runs haven't been noteworthy but he had five top 10s here in a six-race stretch from 2008 to 2011 with RCR. We expect that form to return driving a SHR car here.
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SLEEPER PICK: Paul Menard
Richard Childress Racing, No. 27 ChevroletLearn more about Menard
Fantasy Live price: $15.50
Fastlane forecast: In the last four Auto Club races, Menard has an average finish of 9.0 – third-best among active drivers. Big tracks are his forte – 22 of his 56 career top 10s are at tracks two miles or longer.
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VALUE PLAY: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 FordLearn more about Stenhouse
Fantasy Live price: $14.00
Fastlane forecast: Stenhouse's last two starts at Auto Club have seen him average a place differential of +12.5 to go with an average finish of 10.0. Even after a top five at Phoenix, he's still flying under the radar.
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VALUE PLAY: David Ragan
Front Row Motorsports, No. 38 FordLearn more about Ragan
Fantasy Live price: $6.50
Fastlane forecast: In three of Ragan's last four starts at the California track, he has posted a double-digit positive place differential. Hard to beat that value at this price as you round out your roster.
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VALUE PLAY: Cole Whitt
TriStar Motorsports, No. 72 ChevroletLearn more about Whitt
Fantasy Live price: $5.25
Fastlane forecast: Whitt has a +11.3 place differential over three starts at Fontana, making for incredible value. This is a demanding track especially for a young driver so that stat is equally impressive.