Playoff Bubble Watch: Five races to go

By Staff Report | Published: July 31, 2017 13

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Five races remain in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series regular season before the 16-driver playoff field is set. Thirteen drivers have won a race that counts toward playoff eligibility, leaving the following group of 12 drivers fighting for the final three spots. Read through for a full picture of the drivers on the bubble.

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Chase Elliott

Season points: 616
Points above cutoff: +39
Most likely win over final five regular season races: Michigan. In three career Monster Energy Series starts at Michigan, Elliott has three runner-up finishes.

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Jamie McMurray

Season points: 615
Points above cutoff: +38
Most likely win over final five regular season races: Darlington. It fits Chip Ganassi Racing's strength at intermediate tracks (at 1.366 miles, Darlington is close to the 1.5-milers CGR cars love) and it also fits with McMurray's personal mantra of winning the big races.

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Matt Kenseth

Season points: 594
Points above cutoff: +17
Most likely win over final five regular season races: Bristol. Kenseth currently owns the final playoff spot. He has four career wins at Bristol, his most at any track.

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Clint Bowyer

Season points: 577
Points behind cutoff: -17
Most likely win over final five regular season races: Richmond. Despite his runner-up showing at Bristol earlier this year, we'll take Richmond as his best shot -- he has two career wins there.

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Joey Logano

Season points: 525
Points behind cutoff: -69
Most likely win over final five regular season races: Watkins Glen. Logano already won at Richmond this year -- it was ruled encumbered, which is why he isn't already in the field -- but we like his chances at Watkins Glen, where he has one win and three top-five finishes in eight career starts.

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Daniel Suarez

Season points: 464
Points behind cutoff: -130
Most likely win over final five regular season races: Michigan. Suarez won his first XFINITY Series race at Michigan, and he logged a top-10 finish at Auto Club earlier this year. Fontana's sweeping 2-mile surface is most similar to Michigan.

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Erik Jones

Season points: 444
Points behind cutoff: -150
Most likely win over final five regular season races: Bristol. He has two wins and three poles there in the XFINITY Series, and a 17th-place finish in his only Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series start at Bristol.

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Trevor Bayne

Season points: 406
Points behind cutoff: -188
Most likely win over final five regular season races: Bristol. Bayne has been a bulldog at the bull-ring track throughout his career -- with an average finish of 9.3 in his last three races there -- and Roush's short-track program is improved from recent years.

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Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Season points: 378
Points behind cutoff: -216
Most likely win over final five regular season races: Michigan. It's tough for this not to be Michigan, where Hendrick Motorsports has been so good and Dale Jr. ended two previous dry spells with victories.

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Paul Menard

Season points: 363
Points behind cutoff: -231
Most likely win over final five regular season races: Michigan. Menard has four top-five finishes at the wide-open speedway. It's also where he has the best average finish of the five remaining tracks (17.8).

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Ty Dillon

Season points: 360
Points behind cutoff: -234
Most likely win over final five regular season races: Bristol. In eight XFINITY Series starts at the bullring, he has just one finish outside the top 10.

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AJ Allmendinger

Season points: 317
Points behind cutoff: -277
Most likely win over final five regular season races: Watkins Glen. Allmendinger is a road course racer, and his only Monster Energy Series win is at Watkins Glen in 2014. He finished fourth at The Glen last season.