Playoff Watch: Post-Pocono-2

By | Published: July 30, 2017 18

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Following Kyle Busch's Pocono win, 21 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series regular-season races are in the books. That leaves just five races until the postseason field is set. This is what the playoffs would look like if the postseason started today.

A few reminders:
-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.
-- Drivers earn 5 playoff points for each of their regular-season wins.
-- Drivers earn 1 playoff point for each stage win.
-- The top 10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale.

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Missing the cut

With 13 drivers earning wins that count for playoff eligibility through 20 races, there are a handful of big names currently out of the postseason picture. Chief among them are Clint Bowyer and Joey Logano. Remember, Logano's Richmond win was ruled encumbered, so it doesn't count toward playoff eligibility. Bowyer has been fast all year in his No. 14 Ford at Stewart-Haas Racing, but he hasn't won. Others have, so he's nudged down the standings.

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16. Jamie McMurray, 2,003 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: McMurray is last in the field due to no stage wins, and therefore no bonus playoff points. His three extra points (2,003) come from being eighth in the regular-season standings.

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15. Matt Kenseth, 2,004 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 2
Note: Kenseth is running up front, but he's one of nine or 10 drivers fighting for the three open playoff spots.

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14. Austin Dillon, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Charlotte)
Stage wins: 0
Note: The more first-time winners we get in 2017, the more it hurts Austin Dillon.

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13. Kasey Kahne, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Indianapolis)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Kahne was fast again at Pocono, another cog in his turnaround season.

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12. Ryan Newman, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Phoenix)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Newman could boost his total here by gambling on a stage win or two.

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11. Kurt Busch, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Daytona 500)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Busch is still riding the Daytona 500 win, but his performance upticked at Pocono.

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10. Chase Elliott, 2,006 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 2
Note: Elliott needed a big day after wrecking out at Indy, and he got one with a top-10 at Pocono.

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9. Ryan Blaney, 2,008 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Pocono)
Stage wins: 3
Note: Three stage wins give Blaney a leg -- and three points -- up on his fellow one-win competitors.

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8. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., 2,010 points

Qualified via: 2 wins (Talladega, Daytona-2)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Stenhouse Jr. continues to run around the top 15, and his second win this year was a huge boon to his playoff standings.

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7. Denny Hamlin, 2,012 points

Qualified via: 1 win (New Hampshire)
Stage wins: 2
Note: Hamlin is typically a title contender in this format because of how well he performs at the 10 tracks that comprise the playoffs.

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6. Kevin Harvick, 2,016 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Sonoma)
Stage wins: 3
Note: That Harvick is tied with Jimmie Johnson (three wins) is an indicator of how well the No. 4 team has run recently -- three consecutive top-six finishes.

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5. Jimmie Johnson, 2,016 points

Qualified via: 3 wins (Texas, Bristol, Dover)
Stage wins: 1
Note: Johnson slipped in the playoff standings for the second consecutive week. He actually trails Clint Bowyer in the regular-season standings, and Bowyer's not currently in the postseason field.

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4. Brad Keselowski, 2,019 points

Qualified via: 2 wins (Atlanta, Martinsville)
Stage wins: 3
Note: Kyle Busch's win at Pocono dropped Keselowski down a spot, even though he gained a point from last week by moving up to fifth in the regular-season standings.

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3. Kyle Busch, 2,020 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Pocono-2)
Stage wins: 8
Note: Busch's Pocono win vaulted him into the top three, and he's a real challenge to catch Kyle Larson. He also has closed the gap on Martin Truex Jr.'s stage wins total (14).

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2. Kyle Larson, 2,023 points

Qualified via: 2 wins (Auto Club, Michigan)
Stage wins: 3
Note: A bad day at Pocono didn't mess up Larson's seeding, but it did put a big dent in his hopes to catch Truex Jr. as the regular-season points champion.

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1. Martin Truex Jr., 2,044 points

Qualified via: 3 wins (Las Vegas, Kansas, Kentucky)
Stage wins: 14
Note: Truex Jr. seems to be the favorite in most races these days; he certainly is the favorite to be the playoff's top seed as well.