Playoff Watch: Post-Bristol

By | Published: August 21, 2017 18

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Following Kyle Busch's Bristol win, 24 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series regular-season events are in the books. That leaves just two races until the postseason field is set. This is what the playoffs would look like if the postseason started today.

A few reminders:
-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.
-- Drivers earn 5 playoff points for each of their regular-season wins.
-- Drivers earn 1 playoff point for each stage win.
-- The top 10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale.

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Missing the cut

With 13 drivers earning wins that count for playoff eligibility, there are a handful of big names currently out of the postseason picture. The two closest to the cutoff line are Clint Bowyer and Joey Logano. Remember, Logano's Richmond win was ruled encumbered, so it doesn't count toward playoff eligibility. Bowyer is 58 points below the cutoff line and Logano is 117 points back. They need a win.

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16. Jamie McMurray, 2,002 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: A minor point worth watching -- Matt Kenseth passed McMurray in the regular-season standings and is three points ahead. Who finishes higher among them receives one more playoff point.

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15. Austin Dillon, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Charlotte)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Two winless drivers rank higher in the seeding projection than four drivers with one win, including Austin Dillon.

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14. Kasey Kahne, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Indianapolis)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Two winless drivers rank higher in the seeding projection than four drivers with one win, including Kasey Kahne.

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13. Ryan Newman, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Phoenix)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Two winless drivers rank higher in the seeding projection than four drivers with one win, including Ryan Newman.

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12. Kurt Busch, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Daytona 500)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Two winless drivers rank higher in the seeding projection than four drivers with one win, including Kurt Busch.

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11. Matt Kenseth, 2,006 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 3
Note: Kenseth jumped four positions in the playoff watch after Bristol. His third-place run enabled him to climb to eighth place in the regular-season standings (up from ninth), and winning Stage 2 at Bristol netted an additional playoff point.

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10. Chase Elliott, 2,006 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 2
Note: Elliott's day at Bristol could have been worse, but he rallied nicely from contact with Kevin Harvick -- Clint Bowyer and Joey Logano couldn't take advantage of Elliott's 18th-place finish.

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9. Ryan Blaney, 2,008 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Pocono)
Stage wins: 3
Note: Three stage wins give Blaney a leg -- and three points -- up on his fellow one-win competitors.

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8. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., 2,010 points

Qualified via: 2 wins (Talladega, Daytona-2)
Stage wins: 0
Note: If the No. 17 team advances out of the first round of the playoffs, it would be considered a favorite to win at Talladega, a second-round track.

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7. Denny Hamlin, 2,013 points

Qualified via: 1 win (New Hampshire)
Stage wins: 2
Note: Hamlin is coming into form, and so are the Toyotas. He feels like a sleeper to make a deep playoff drive.

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6. Kevin Harvick, 2,015 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Sonoma)
Stage wins: 3
Note: Harvick has a firm hold on fourth place in the regular-season standings, and third place -- currently occupied by Kyle Larson -- is just 21 points away.

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5. Jimmie Johnson, 2,016 points

Qualified via: 3 wins (Texas, Bristol, Dover)
Stage wins: 1
Note: Johnson has cooled off considerably since his three-win start to the season. He's outside the top 10 in the regular-season standings.

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4. Brad Keselowski, 2,019 points

Qualified via: 2 wins (Atlanta, Martinsville)
Stage wins: 4
Note: It appears Keselowski will carry the Team Penske torch alone in the postseason as teammate Joey Logano is on the precipice of elimination.

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3. Kyle Larson, 2,026 points

Qualified via: 3 wins (Auto Club, Michigan-1, Michigan-2)
Stage wins: 3
Note: The Kyle Larson-Kyle Busch battle in the standings is almost as much fun to watch as their battles on the track.

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2. Kyle Busch, 2,030 points

Qualified via: 2 wins (Pocono-2, Bristol-2)
Stage wins: 10
Note: Bristol was Busch's best weekend of the year. The triple-header sweep was the second of his career, and he won both Stage 1 and, more importantly, the race on Saturday night.

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1. Martin Truex Jr., 2,050 points

Qualified via: 4 wins (Las Vegas, Kansas, Kentucky, Watkins Glen)
Stage wins: 15
Note: Truex Jr. will be favored to clinch the regular-season championship at Darlington, which would come with 15 playoff points.