Playoff Watch: Post-Michigan August race

By | Published: August 13, 2017 18

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Following Kyle Larson's Michigan win, 23 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series regular-season events are in the books. That leaves just three races until the postseason field is set. This is what the playoffs would look like if the postseason started today.

A few reminders:
-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.
-- Drivers earn 5 playoff points for each of their regular-season wins.
-- Drivers earn 1 playoff point for each stage win.
-- The top 10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale.

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Missing the cut

With 13 drivers earning wins that count for playoff eligibility, there are a handful of big names currently out of the postseason picture. Chief among them are Clint Bowyer and Joey Logano. Remember, Logano's Richmond win was ruled encumbered, so it doesn't count toward playoff eligibility. Matt Kenseth, owner of the final playoff spot, finished 24th at Michigan, but neither Bowyer nor Logano could capitalize.

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16. Jamie McMurray, 2,003 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: McMurray leads Matt Kenseth in the regular-season standings, but he is last in the provisional playoff field with no stage wins, and therefore no bonus playoff points. His three extra points (2,003) come from sitting eighth in the regular-season standings.

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15. Matt Kenseth, 2,004 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 2
Note: Kenseth's 24th-place finish at Michigan didn't necessarily hurt him. That's because Clint Bowyer (23rd) and Joey Logano (28th) couldn't capitalize and make up ground.

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14. Austin Dillon, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Charlotte)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Kyle Larson winning Michigan is a boon for Dillon. If Erik Jones (third) pulled out a win, it would have sent Dillon closer to the cutoff line despite his win at Charlotte.

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13. Kasey Kahne, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Indianapolis)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Kahne likely can't catch Ryan Newman in the regular-season standings, so the No. 13 spot is his most likely playoff seed.

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12. Ryan Newman, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Phoenix)
Stage wins: 0
Note: A fourth-place run at Michigan has Newman within shouting distance of passing Kurt Busch in the regular-season standings.

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11. Kurt Busch, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Daytona 500)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Busch's uncertain future has not derailed his recent performance.

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10. Chase Elliott, 2,006 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 2
Note: Elliott ranks highest among the three non-winners in the playoffs, and he put some separation between himself and Matt Kenseth (+31) in the regular-season standings.

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9. Ryan Blaney, 2,008 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Pocono)
Stage wins: 3
Note: Three stage wins give Blaney a leg -- and three points -- up on his fellow one-win competitors.

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8. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., 2,010 points

Qualified via: 2 wins (Talladega, Daytona-2)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Stenhouse has a couple of tracks ahead where win No. 3 could loom -- in particular, he excels at Bristol.

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7. Denny Hamlin, 2,012 points

Qualified via: 1 win (New Hampshire)
Stage wins: 2
Note: Hamlin is typically a title contender in this format because of how well he performs at the 10 tracks that comprise the playoffs.

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6. Kevin Harvick, 2,015 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Sonoma)
Stage wins: 3
Note: Harvick's speed has been present this summer -- he just needs the finishes, and wins, to match.

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5. Jimmie Johnson, 2,016 points

Qualified via: 3 wins (Texas, Bristol, Dover)
Stage wins: 1
Note: Johnson has cooled off considerably since his three-win start to the season. He's outside the top 10 in the regular-season standings.

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4. Brad Keselowski, 2,020 points

Qualified via: 2 wins (Atlanta, Martinsville)
Stage wins: 4
Note: Keselowski picked up a stage win, and therefore an extra playoff point, at Michigan. He missed out on the race win, though, despite leading 105 of 202 laps.

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3. Kyle Busch, 2,022 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Pocono-2)
Stage wins: 9
Note: Busch slips from the No. 2 seed to the No. 3 seed following Kyle Larson's win at Michigan, but he still has to be considered a favorite to make it to Miami.

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3. Kyle Larson, 2,028 points

Qualified via: 3 wins (Auto Club, Michigan-1, Michigan-2)
Stage wins: 3
Note: What slump? Larson broke out of his slightly cool stretch with authority at Michigan, powering from fourth to first on the final restart for his third win of the season. All have come on 2-milers.

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1. Martin Truex Jr., 2,050 points

Qualified via: 4 wins (Las Vegas, Kansas, Kentucky, Watkins Glen)
Stage wins: 15
Note: No victory, but another stage win for Truex has him at 2,050 points if the playoffs started today.