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Championship probability: Rating the 2018 Monster Energy Series Field
By Steve Luvender | Published: February 16, 2018 32
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Even though a record number of millennials are racing in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series in 2018, there’s still only one trophy awarded at the end of the season -- there’s no special designation just for participating here. We’ve taken a look through the field and determined totally scientific and logical probability-ratings of each driver’s odds at claiming the title of champion in November.
Even though a record number of millennials are racing in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series in 2018, there’s still only one trophy awarded at the end of the season -- there’s no special designation just for participating here. We’ve taken a look through the field and determined totally scientific and logical probability-ratings of each driver’s odds at claiming the title of champion in November.
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Martin Truex Jr.
The case for: He won the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup in 2017, I hear. That’s pretty good.
The case against: Stage points don’t roll over from 2017.
Probability: High. That’s the highest rating we have.
The case for: He won the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup in 2017, I hear. That’s pretty good.
The case against: Stage points don’t roll over from 2017.
Probability: High. That’s the highest rating we have.
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Kyle Busch
The case for: He won the second-most number of races in 2017, behind Truex, and finished second in the chhampionship race, behind Truex.
The case against: You’re supposed to be ahead of Truex.
Probability: High, and not just because I want him to share his M&Ms.
The case for: He won the second-most number of races in 2017, behind Truex, and finished second in the chhampionship race, behind Truex.
The case against: You’re supposed to be ahead of Truex.
Probability: High, and not just because I want him to share his M&Ms.
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Kevin Harvick
The case for: He’s had the best performance over all his Stewart-Haas Racing teammates and was three spots shy of winning his second championship in 2017.
The case against: According to a Mobil 1 commercial, he’s three inches tall, which makes visibility a concern, among other things.
Probability: High, but that’s sort of a perennial thing for Mr. The Happy Cactus Closer.
The case for: He’s had the best performance over all his Stewart-Haas Racing teammates and was three spots shy of winning his second championship in 2017.
The case against: According to a Mobil 1 commercial, he’s three inches tall, which makes visibility a concern, among other things.
Probability: High, but that’s sort of a perennial thing for Mr. The Happy Cactus Closer.
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Brad Keselowski
The case for: He made another appearance in the Championship 4 in 2017, and he’s already started the season off strong with a victory in the Advance Auto Parts Clash.
The case against: His newfound fear of robots and self-driving cars might distract him from the job at hand.
Probability: High. Can you believe 2018 will be Keselowski’s 11th year making starts in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series? They grow up so fast.
The case for: He made another appearance in the Championship 4 in 2017, and he’s already started the season off strong with a victory in the Advance Auto Parts Clash.
The case against: His newfound fear of robots and self-driving cars might distract him from the job at hand.
Probability: High. Can you believe 2018 will be Keselowski’s 11th year making starts in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series? They grow up so fast.
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Chase Elliott
The case for: He’s switching from the No. 24 to the No. 9. One fewer digit means less vinyl, which means less weight, which means more speed.
The case against: He still hasn’t won a race in 77 starts -- which, in reality, is something he hates more for his guys than for himself.
Probability: High, because consistency is still worth something.
The case for: He’s switching from the No. 24 to the No. 9. One fewer digit means less vinyl, which means less weight, which means more speed.
The case against: He still hasn’t won a race in 77 starts -- which, in reality, is something he hates more for his guys than for himself.
Probability: High, because consistency is still worth something.
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Denny Hamlin
The case for: Even though he fell short of the Championship 4, no thanks to that rapscallion Elliott, he had a solid season by all accounts -- the second-most top-five finishes and third-most top 10s.
The case against: Listen to Denny’s interviews closely. Since he’s sponsored by FedEx, he always tries to work in a subtle reference. Like, “I hope we can deliver a win for FedEx” or “Let’s box up the championship trophy.” Being constantly on guard is mentally tiring.
Probability: High, because Denny delivers.
The case for: Even though he fell short of the Championship 4, no thanks to that rapscallion Elliott, he had a solid season by all accounts -- the second-most top-five finishes and third-most top 10s.
The case against: Listen to Denny’s interviews closely. Since he’s sponsored by FedEx, he always tries to work in a subtle reference. Like, “I hope we can deliver a win for FedEx” or “Let’s box up the championship trophy.” Being constantly on guard is mentally tiring.
Probability: High, because Denny delivers.
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Kyle Larson
The case for: 2017 was a breakout season. Yung Money won four races, quadrupling his previous total.
The case against: 2017 was a “break out the backup car” season, particularly as the season wound down.
Probability: High, especially if luck is on his side in 2018.
The case for: 2017 was a breakout season. Yung Money won four races, quadrupling his previous total.
The case against: 2017 was a “break out the backup car” season, particularly as the season wound down.
Probability: High, especially if luck is on his side in 2018.
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Ryan Blaney
The case for: He’s moved to an in-house Team Penske car. That means another level of polish and performance.
The case against: He’s moved to an in-house Team Penske car. That means another level of polish, which means fewer Tweets that read “#drunk.”
Probability: High, like the starch level of his new shirts.
The case for: He’s moved to an in-house Team Penske car. That means another level of polish and performance.
The case against: He’s moved to an in-house Team Penske car. That means another level of polish, which means fewer Tweets that read “#drunk.”
Probability: High, like the starch level of his new shirts.
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Jimmie Johnson
The case for: He’s Jimmie Johnson. Like, the seven-time champion whose likeness is captured in confetti-flinging cardboard cutouts in Lowe’s stores, apparently.
The case against: He earned a career-low 11 top-10 finishes in 2017, which probably isn’t the best way to follow up a 2016 championship run. Maybe he was just giving everybody else a chance for a change.
Probability: High. We’ve learned to never count out Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus, because it makes them even faster.
The case for: He’s Jimmie Johnson. Like, the seven-time champion whose likeness is captured in confetti-flinging cardboard cutouts in Lowe’s stores, apparently.
The case against: He earned a career-low 11 top-10 finishes in 2017, which probably isn’t the best way to follow up a 2016 championship run. Maybe he was just giving everybody else a chance for a change.
Probability: High. We’ve learned to never count out Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus, because it makes them even faster.
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Austin Dillon
The case for: Dillon won his first career race in the 2017 Coca-Cola 600. Some say he’s still performing part of his victory celebration to this day.
The case against: He only logged four Top-10 finishes in 2017. Ideally, you want to score something more like 10 top-four finishes.
Probability: Medium, unless he continues to play the fuel mileage game.
The case for: Dillon won his first career race in the 2017 Coca-Cola 600. Some say he’s still performing part of his victory celebration to this day.
The case against: He only logged four Top-10 finishes in 2017. Ideally, you want to score something more like 10 top-four finishes.
Probability: Medium, unless he continues to play the fuel mileage game.
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Jamie McMurray
The case for: He scored top-10 finishes in nearly half the races in 2017. Maybe the new Camaro ZL1 will help him upgrade those finishes into wins.
The case against: He hasn’t won a race since Talladega in 2013.
Probability: Medium, no sauce, extra pickles.
The case for: He scored top-10 finishes in nearly half the races in 2017. Maybe the new Camaro ZL1 will help him upgrade those finishes into wins.
The case against: He hasn’t won a race since Talladega in 2013.
Probability: Medium, no sauce, extra pickles.
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Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
The case for: We discovered that he can, in fact, win races. That seems like a valuable skill in hunting for a championship.
The case against: Outside of restrictor plate races, the consistency wasn’t quite there.
Probability: Medium, though it’s extremely probable he runs down the street draped in nothing but an American flag at some point this year.
The case for: We discovered that he can, in fact, win races. That seems like a valuable skill in hunting for a championship.
The case against: Outside of restrictor plate races, the consistency wasn’t quite there.
Probability: Medium, though it’s extremely probable he runs down the street draped in nothing but an American flag at some point this year.
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Kurt Busch
The case for: He won the Daytona 500 in 2017.
The case against: That’s the only race he won in 2017. There are 35 other races, after all.
Probability: Medium. If you listen to Kurt Busch on the radio, you’ll learn he might give the most specific, valuable feedback about the car out of anyone racing today -- and also a few new choice words you won’t find in your “Word of the Day” calendar.
The case for: He won the Daytona 500 in 2017.
The case against: That’s the only race he won in 2017. There are 35 other races, after all.
Probability: Medium. If you listen to Kurt Busch on the radio, you’ll learn he might give the most specific, valuable feedback about the car out of anyone racing today -- and also a few new choice words you won’t find in your “Word of the Day” calendar.
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Kasey Kahne
The case for: He’s racing for a new team with a snazzy new paint scheme.
The case against: The new team, Leavine Family Racing, scored a lone Top-10 finish in 2017, with Michael McDowell at Daytona.
Probability: Medium. Kahne managed to win a race with Red Bull Racing back in the day -- a similar situation to his new scenario -- but LFR will need a big boost from Kahne to be competitive.
The case for: He’s racing for a new team with a snazzy new paint scheme.
The case against: The new team, Leavine Family Racing, scored a lone Top-10 finish in 2017, with Michael McDowell at Daytona.
Probability: Medium. Kahne managed to win a race with Red Bull Racing back in the day -- a similar situation to his new scenario -- but LFR will need a big boost from Kahne to be competitive.
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William Byron
The case for: William Byron’s been successful in everything he’s done. I can’t relate.
The case against: At 20 years old, he’s unproven. While he’s an Xfinity Series champion, he’s made zero Monster Energy Series starts. Talk about diving into the deep end.
Probability: Medium, which will sound ridiculous after he wins all 36 races or something.
The case for: William Byron’s been successful in everything he’s done. I can’t relate.
The case against: At 20 years old, he’s unproven. While he’s an Xfinity Series champion, he’s made zero Monster Energy Series starts. Talk about diving into the deep end.
Probability: Medium, which will sound ridiculous after he wins all 36 races or something.
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Ryan Newman
The case for: Newman returned to Victory Lane in 2017, plus he picked up a few new sponsors for 2018. Clearly, there’s confidence he can still get the job done.
The case against: Newman is subjected to the new 2018 inspection process, which essentially means cars go through a dark tent with projectors and cameras. It’s like a race car rave. No wonder the 40-year-old veteran isn’t thrilled about it.
Probability: Medium, but we’ll also give him a free neon glow stick and necklace.
The case for: Newman returned to Victory Lane in 2017, plus he picked up a few new sponsors for 2018. Clearly, there’s confidence he can still get the job done.
The case against: Newman is subjected to the new 2018 inspection process, which essentially means cars go through a dark tent with projectors and cameras. It’s like a race car rave. No wonder the 40-year-old veteran isn’t thrilled about it.
Probability: Medium, but we’ll also give him a free neon glow stick and necklace.
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Joey Logano
The case for: He’s a new dad. Some drivers, like Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick, seemed to start performing more consistently as fathers. Weird, but maybe there’s something there.
The case against: Logano started 2017 with eight Top-10 finishes in the first nine races — then just nine more in the remaining 28 races. If momentum is a thing, the reverse of that could be a thing, too.
Probability: Medium, Dad.
The case for: He’s a new dad. Some drivers, like Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick, seemed to start performing more consistently as fathers. Weird, but maybe there’s something there.
The case against: Logano started 2017 with eight Top-10 finishes in the first nine races — then just nine more in the remaining 28 races. If momentum is a thing, the reverse of that could be a thing, too.
Probability: Medium, Dad.
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Clint Bowyer
The case for: He’s happier than an old hound dog layin' on the porch chewin' on a big ol' bone.
The case against: He hasn’t won a race since 2012.
Probability: Medium, unless we see the No. 14 in Victory Lane again soon.
The case for: He’s happier than an old hound dog layin' on the porch chewin' on a big ol' bone.
The case against: He hasn’t won a race since 2012.
Probability: Medium, unless we see the No. 14 in Victory Lane again soon.
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Erik Jones
The case for: The No. 20 car can get it done. Now it’s time for Erik Jones to prove himself.
The case against: Everyone’s going to refer to him as Matt Kenseth until June, at least.
Probability: Medium, but if he lives up to expectations, this will be the only time we’ll say he’s not a favorite to win the championship.
The case for: The No. 20 car can get it done. Now it’s time for Erik Jones to prove himself.
The case against: Everyone’s going to refer to him as Matt Kenseth until June, at least.
Probability: Medium, but if he lives up to expectations, this will be the only time we’ll say he’s not a favorite to win the championship.
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Daniel Suarez
The case for: There’s a little less pressure entering 2018 than when Suarez was thrust into a new ride just weeks before the start of the 2017 season.
The case against: Luck wasn’t on Suarez’s side in 2017, getting caught up in several crashes that weren’t his fault. We don’t know when he broke a mirror, so his seven years of bad luck might still be in effect.
Probability: Medium. Especially if he has better luck with doughnuts this year.
The case for: There’s a little less pressure entering 2018 than when Suarez was thrust into a new ride just weeks before the start of the 2017 season.
The case against: Luck wasn’t on Suarez’s side in 2017, getting caught up in several crashes that weren’t his fault. We don’t know when he broke a mirror, so his seven years of bad luck might still be in effect.
Probability: Medium. Especially if he has better luck with doughnuts this year.
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Alex Bowman
The case for: Bowman’s proven he can deliver solid finishes driving the No. 88.
The case against: He has to explain to fans he’s not Dale Earnhardt Jr. AND why he doesn’t have rookie stripes on his car.
Probability: Medium for Bowman and his fan club, A. Bowman-nation.
The case for: Bowman’s proven he can deliver solid finishes driving the No. 88.
The case against: He has to explain to fans he’s not Dale Earnhardt Jr. AND why he doesn’t have rookie stripes on his car.
Probability: Medium for Bowman and his fan club, A. Bowman-nation.
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Trevor Bayne
The case for: Bayne will reach his 200th Cup start in 2018.
The case against: Still just that one win, though. To be fair, Bayne earned a career-high number of top-10 finishes (six) in 2017.
Probability: Medium. Am I dreamin’ right now?
The case for: Bayne will reach his 200th Cup start in 2018.
The case against: Still just that one win, though. To be fair, Bayne earned a career-high number of top-10 finishes (six) in 2017.
Probability: Medium. Am I dreamin’ right now?
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Paul Menard
The case for: Paul Menard is TOTALLY THRILLED to join Wood Brothers Racing in 2018 -- you know, the team that won a race and contended for a championship with Ryan Blaney last year.
The case against: Maybe it was a lame duck situation, but Menard struggled in 2017 with Richard Childress Racing while his teammates Austin Dillon and Ryan Newman scored victories.
Probability: Medium. Don’t get emotional, Paul.
The case for: Paul Menard is TOTALLY THRILLED to join Wood Brothers Racing in 2018 -- you know, the team that won a race and contended for a championship with Ryan Blaney last year.
The case against: Maybe it was a lame duck situation, but Menard struggled in 2017 with Richard Childress Racing while his teammates Austin Dillon and Ryan Newman scored victories.
Probability: Medium. Don’t get emotional, Paul.
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Ty Dillon
The case for: Ty Dillon has resolved to make a name (Ty Dillon) for himself, Ty Dillon, in 2018. Ty Dillon also races with a new crew chief for Ty Dillon -- Matt Borland, who is not Ty Dillon.
The case against: Dillon didn’t score a single top-10 finish in 2017. The bar is low, at least.
Probability: Low for Ty Dillon. Ty Dillon’s probability of winning the title is low, but Ty Dillon could surprise some people.
The case for: Ty Dillon has resolved to make a name (Ty Dillon) for himself, Ty Dillon, in 2018. Ty Dillon also races with a new crew chief for Ty Dillon -- Matt Borland, who is not Ty Dillon.
The case against: Dillon didn’t score a single top-10 finish in 2017. The bar is low, at least.
Probability: Low for Ty Dillon. Ty Dillon’s probability of winning the title is low, but Ty Dillon could surprise some people.
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Chris Buescher
The case for: He earned some strong runs near the end of the season, even drawing praise from Dale Earnhardt Jr.
The case against: If he wins a race, we’ll be in Victory Lane for a little while as he lists off all his sponsors. Dude’s got a lot.
Probability: Low, unless the weather gets foggy a lot in 2018.
The case for: He earned some strong runs near the end of the season, even drawing praise from Dale Earnhardt Jr.
The case against: If he wins a race, we’ll be in Victory Lane for a little while as he lists off all his sponsors. Dude’s got a lot.
Probability: Low, unless the weather gets foggy a lot in 2018.
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AJ Allmendinger
The case for: JTG Daugherty Racing is stepping up its engineering efforts in 2018. Maybe engineering some better finishes or something.
The case against: Dinger didn’t have the 2017 season he wanted, as he made clear throughout the race on the radio when times were tense.
Probability: Low, although there are three road courses on the schedule now.
The case for: JTG Daugherty Racing is stepping up its engineering efforts in 2018. Maybe engineering some better finishes or something.
The case against: Dinger didn’t have the 2017 season he wanted, as he made clear throughout the race on the radio when times were tense.
Probability: Low, although there are three road courses on the schedule now.
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Aric Almirola
The case for: Almirola took his hams to Stewart-Haas Racing. More like Stewart’s Hams Racing. Sorry.
The case against: The No. 10 hasn’t fared well in recent years, though Almirola would like to change that.
Probability: Low, at least until the meat marinates a bit. Did I say meat? I meant team.
The case for: Almirola took his hams to Stewart-Haas Racing. More like Stewart’s Hams Racing. Sorry.
The case against: The No. 10 hasn’t fared well in recent years, though Almirola would like to change that.
Probability: Low, at least until the meat marinates a bit. Did I say meat? I meant team.
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Darrell Wallace Jr.
The case for: Bubba Wallace landed a ride in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series in Richard Petty’s famed No. 43. Plus, he totally owned Kevin Harvick on Twitter during the off-season.
The case against: While Bubba fared well in 2017 subbing for Aric Almirola, he hasn’t raced a full Cup schedule yet.
Probability: Low, but there’s a high probability he’s the NASCAR version of Phil Collins. Dude can drum. We can feel a win coming in the air tonight.
The case for: Bubba Wallace landed a ride in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series in Richard Petty’s famed No. 43. Plus, he totally owned Kevin Harvick on Twitter during the off-season.
The case against: While Bubba fared well in 2017 subbing for Aric Almirola, he hasn’t raced a full Cup schedule yet.
Probability: Low, but there’s a high probability he’s the NASCAR version of Phil Collins. Dude can drum. We can feel a win coming in the air tonight.
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Michael McDowell
The case for: McDowell moves to a new team. There’s something special about showing up to your first day of work at a new place.
The case against: The team change is sort of a lateral move, but at least he’ll probably get a good deal on those little hot dogs on the rollers at travel stops now.
Probability: Low. Front Row Motorsports is a little bit of a misnomer.
The case for: McDowell moves to a new team. There’s something special about showing up to your first day of work at a new place.
The case against: The team change is sort of a lateral move, but at least he’ll probably get a good deal on those little hot dogs on the rollers at travel stops now.
Probability: Low. Front Row Motorsports is a little bit of a misnomer.
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David Ragan
The case for: There are four restrictor plate races on the schedule, which means Ragan has four legitimate shots at winning races.
The case against: Consistency wasn’t the name of Ragan’s game in 2017. The name of the game was NASCAR, and it’s not even a game.
Probability: Low. At least he’s won as many races as Chase Elliott since Elliott started racing in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series.
The case for: There are four restrictor plate races on the schedule, which means Ragan has four legitimate shots at winning races.
The case against: Consistency wasn’t the name of Ragan’s game in 2017. The name of the game was NASCAR, and it’s not even a game.
Probability: Low. At least he’s won as many races as Chase Elliott since Elliott started racing in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series.
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Matt DiBenedetto
The case for: DiBurrito scored top-10 finishes on the two biggest stages of 2017: The Daytona 500 and the Brickyard 400. Talk about performance when there’s a payday.
The case against: Wasn’t much of a factor the other 34 races.
Probability: Low, unless he can continue to score those out-of-nowhere Top-10 finishes.
The case for: DiBurrito scored top-10 finishes on the two biggest stages of 2017: The Daytona 500 and the Brickyard 400. Talk about performance when there’s a payday.
The case against: Wasn’t much of a factor the other 34 races.
Probability: Low, unless he can continue to score those out-of-nowhere Top-10 finishes.