Playoff Watch 2018: Post-Bristol

From now until the regular-season finale at Indianapolis on Sept. 9, NASCAR.com will analyze the playoff picture on Monday as if the postseason started today. Here's the picture through 24 regular-season races (out of 26) following Kurt Busch's win at Bristol.

A few reminders:
-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.
-- Drivers earn 5 playoff points for each of their regular-season wins, which is added on to their total of 2,000.
-- Drivers earn 1 playoff point for each stage win.
-- The top-10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale, starting with 15 points for the Regular Season Champion and ending one point for the 10th-place finisher.

Missing the cut

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is among five 2017 playoff drivers not currently in the 2018 field. Fellow 2017 playoff drivers Jamie McMurray, Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne and Matt Kenseth also are below the cut line. All of the above drivers are in must-win situations.

16. Alex Bowman, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Plenty of intrigue heading into Bristol ended with Bowman actually extending his lead over Ricky Stenhouse Jr. He's now 79 points above the Roush Fenway Racing driver in the standings for the final playoff spot.

15. Jimmie Johnson, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: We saw the No. 48 Chevrolet in the top five more at Bristol than we've seen for much of the year. This team continues to look on the verge of turning a corner.

14. Aric Almirola, 2,001 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 1
Note: Another really good car for Almirola, who just can't seem to capitalize on his speed this year. Still, he's in excellent postseason shape.

13. Kyle Larson, 2,002 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 1* (does not count as a bonus point due to post-race inspection fail)
Note: A runner-up finish from Larson was enough to officially clinch a playoff berth for the No. 42 team, despite not having a win this year.

12. Denny Hamlin, 2,003 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 2
Note: Hamlin hasn't officially clinched yet, but he would at Darlington with a repeat winner. Or, of course, if Hamlin wins himself.

11. Austin Dillon, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Daytona 500)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Dillon and the No. 3 team showed impressive speed for the second consecutive race, and this time they rallied from the rear of the field. There is reason for optimism in the No. 3 camp.

10. Erik Jones, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Daytona-2)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Jones probably can't crack the top 10 in the regular-season standings (which comes with additional playoff points), so it should be win-or-bust mentality in the final two regular-season races.

9. Brad Keselowski, 2,007 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 4
Note: Keselowski clinched a postseason berth despite not have a win, and running poorly by the No. 2 team's standards at Bristol. Time is running out to right the ship.

8. Chase Elliott, 2,008 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Watkins Glen)
Stage wins: 3
Note: Elliott ran at the front of the pack at Bristol and again has the look of a driver ready to make a deep playoff run.

7. Ryan Blaney, 2,009 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 5
Note: Blaney jumps two spots in the playoff field for the second consecutive week. His Stage 1 win produces another crucial playoff point. He has five stage wins now, the equivalent to one win.

6. Joey Logano, 2,013 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Talladega-1)
Stage wins: 3
Note: Logano earned an additional playoff point with his Stage 2 win at Bristol, but he slips one spot in the standings due to Kurt Busch -- below Logano in the playoff picture last week -- winning.

5. Kurt Busch, 2,014 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Bristol-2)
Stage wins: 2
Note: Busch broke through on the strength of late-race restarts, and it couldn't come at a better time. He's in the top-five of the initial playoff picture, and only two points behind Stewart-Haas Racing teammate Clint Bowyer.

4. Clint Bowyer, 2,016 points

Qualified via: 2 wins (Martinsville-1, Michigan-1)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Bowyer was there at the end, but was foiled on late restarts and watched Kurt Busch sail to victory. Another such instance would vault Busch ahead in the playoff standings, too.

3. Martin Truex Jr., 2,035 points

Qualified via: 4 wins (Auto Club, Pocono-1, Sonoma, Kentucky)
Stage wins: 7
Note: The inadvertent hit from Kyle Busch and subsequent wreck ruined Truex Jr.'s chances at winning. The final two tracks are good ones for the No. 78 team, but the group probably won't catch Kyle Busch or Kevin Harvick.

2. Kyle Busch, 2,050 points

Qualified via: 6 wins (Texas-1, Bristol-1, Richmond-1, Charlotte, Chicagoland, Pocono-2)
Stage wins: 5
Note: Leaving Bristol with zero earned playoff points has to feel like a letdown, no matter how great a show 'Rowdy' put on under the lights.

1. Kevin Harvick, 2,050 points

Qualified via: 7 wins* (Atlanta, Las Vegas-1, Phoenix-1, Dover-1, Kansas-1, New Hampshire, Michigan-2)*
Stage wins: 12*
Note: No movement at the top. With Darlington one of Harvick's best tracks, he has the inside track to the top seed. (Note: One race win and two stage wins will not count toward Harvick's playoff points total)