2018 Bubble Watch: Bristol

Aric Almirola

Points above cutoff: 159
Bristol wins: 0
Average track start: 21.7 (Rank: 10 out of 12 among bubble drivers)
Average track finish: 23.9 (Rank: 9 out of 12)
Notable: Almirola has a spotty record at Bristol, but he did finish sixth here in the spring. A similar result Saturday night under the lights and the Stewart-Haas Racing driver becomes a virtual lock to qualify for the postseason.

Jimmie Johnson

Points above cutoff: 92
Bristol wins: 2
Average track start: 15.2 (Rank: 3 out of 12 among bubble drivers)
Average track finish: 13.3 (Rank: 2 out of 12)
Notable: In what has been a season unlike any Johnson has experienced in his stellar career, the highlight thus far was a third-place effort at Bristol in April. Hendrick Motorsports has made noticeable performance gains since then, lending credence that perhaps Johnson snaps his winless streak Saturday night.

Alex Bowman

Points above cutoff: 62
Bristol wins: 0
Average track start: 28.8 (Rank: 12 out of 12 among bubble drivers)
Average track finish: 24.2 (Rank: 11 out of 12)
Notable: Twice Bowman has finished in the top five this season -- one of which was a fifth at Bristol. And considering his current status as the last driver above the provisional cut line, he needs a strong performance following a Michigan race where he was competitive early only to fade to 19th at the end.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Points below cutoff: 62
Bristol wins: 0
Average track start: 20.4 (Rank: 8 out of 12 among bubble drivers)
Average track finish: 10.2 (Rank: 1 out of 12)
Notable: Bristol presents Stenhouse a great opportunity to score a win and secure himself a postseason berth. He has six top-10 finishes in the past nine races -- including a pair of seconds and fourths -- and his 10.2 average finish is his best at any track on the circuit and best among drivers on this list.

Paul Menard

Points below cutoff: 70
Bristol wins: 0
Average track start: 19.2 (Rank: 6 out of 12 among bubble drivers)
Average track finish: 17.6 (Rank: 7 out of 12)
Notable: By no means is Menard’s average Bristol finish spectacular, though worth noting it is higher than several perennial contenders, including Brad Keselowski (18.2), Martin Truex Jr. (20.7) and Ryan Blaney (24.3).

Daniel Suarez

Points below cutoff: 82
Bristol wins: 0
Average track start: 15.7 (Rank: 4 out of 12 among bubble drivers)
Average track finish: 14.7 (Rank: 3 out of 12)
Notable: Suarez doesn’t have a top-10 finish in three Bristol starts, but he’s also never placed worse than 18th and was 11th here in the spring.

Ryan Newman

Points below cutoff: 86
Bristol wins: 0
Average track start: 11.9 (Rank: 2 out of 12 among bubble drivers)
Average track finish: 15.8 (Rank: 4 out of 12)
Notable: This is a track where Newman has five top-10 finishes in the previous seven Bristol races, with his 18 top 10s overall tied with Kevin Harvick for third-best among active drivers.

William Byron

Points below cutoff: 114
Bristol wins: 0
Average track start: 11.0 (Rank: 1 out of 12 among bubble drivers)
Average track finish: 18.0 (Rank: 8 out of 12)
Notable: Last weekend's 36th offered a tough reminder that Byron is still a rookie. But in the two previous races before Michigan he posted back-to-back top 10s. If he can avoid trouble -- a big if -- a solid finish is certainly achievable at Bristol.

Jamie McMurray

Points below cutoff: 116
Bristol wins: 0
Average track start: 16.8 (Rank: 5 out of 12 among bubble drivers)
Average track finish: 16.3 (Rank: 6 out of 12)
Notable: McMurray has recently been good but not great at Bristol, fluctuating between finishing eighth through 19th over his past eight starts. There is little to suggest that will change Saturday, taking into account he’s led all of three laps this season and zero in his past seven starts at Bristol.

AJ Allmendinger

Points below cutoff: 167
Bristol wins: 0
Average track start: 21.1 (Rank: 9 out of 12 among bubble drivers)
Average track finish: 23.9 (Rank: 9 out of 12)
Notable: That Allmendinger has only one top-10 finish in 20 starts at Bristol suggests this weekend may be a struggle. The silver lining is that his finishes have improved in the past three races here, going from 30th to 22nd to 17th.

Chris Buescher

Points below cutoff: 180
Bristol wins: 0
Average track start: 22.5 (Rank: 11 out of 12 among bubble drivers)
Average track finish: 25.5 (Rank: 12 out of 12)
Notable: Buescher finished fifth in this race two years ago. That result, however, appears to be a bit of an outlier as he’s never finished better than 21st in his other five starts at Bristol.

Bubba Wallace

Points below cutoff: 197
Bristol wins: 0
Average track start: 20.0 (Rank: 7 out of 12 among bubble drivers)
Average track finish: 16.0 (Rank: 5 out of 12)
Notable: Heads turned when Wallace charged toward the front and passed Brad Keselowski for the lead under green-flag conditions during the spring Bristol race. Wallace may have only held the lead for six laps, but demonstrated he was capable of being a contender.