Round 1 Preview: What drivers need to advance to Round 2

David Smith of MotorsportsAnalytics.com analyzed the strengths and weaknesses of the drivers comprising the 2018 NASCAR Playoffs field and identified Round 1 needs -- occurrences required to either highlight strengths or minimize weaknesses -- for eight participants based on their year-to-date statistical profiles.

Needs Restarts: Kurt Busch, having gained 50 positions this year on restarts, is arguably the best restarter in NASCAR. He'll need a copious number of restarts in the opening round to overcome some glaring weaknesses on the track types that comprise it; he holds negative long-run pass differentials on moderate intermediates and short tracks and ranks just 15th in Central Speed on road courses. ... Also in Need: Brad Keselowski, ranking third in position retention on preferred groove restarts.

Needs Long Runs: Jimmie Johnson rolls into Round 1 brandishing the worst average finish (17.0) of his full-time Monster Energy Series career, but he still is one of the most effective long-run passers, ranking sixth and fifth in Adjusted Pass Efficiency on moderate intermediates and short tracks, respectively. His average finish is five spots better in races without a late-race restart (14.3) than in races with at least one (19.5). ... Also in Need: Denny Hamlin, ranking fourth among playoff drivers in Adjusted Pass Efficiency on moderate intermediates.

Needs Effective Pit Strategy: Aric Almirola.Crew chief Johnny Klausmeier would be the linchpin if Almirola, ranked 13th in Central Speed, were to make a deep playoff run. The No. 10 team's 78 percent position retention on green-flag pit stops is 12 percent better than the series-wide rate and has netted Almirola 78 extra positions on the track. This includes 31 spots in the two road-course races at Sonoma and Watkins Glen. ... Also in Need: Austin Dillon, whose crew chief, Justin Alexander, holds the highest long and short-pitting frequency among playoff contenders.

Needs Clean Races: Martin Truex Jr. is crashing 0.42 times per race, the largest frequency among playoff participants. He also has a bizarre average finish split; his average result in races with at least one late-race restart (19.0) is more than 15 positions worse than in races ending with a long green-flag run (3.8). Races void of calamity could fuel Truex's bid for a second consecutive championship. ... Also in Need: Erik Jones, who averages a finish 3.9 positions better in races with no late-race restart than in races with at least one.

Needs to Capitalize at Las Vegas: Kyle Larson isn't in bad shape, per se, at Richmond or Charlotte, ranking ninth and seventh in Central Speed on short tracks and road courses, respectively. However, he could stamp his ticket to Round 2 with a victory at Las Vegas. On moderate intermediates, he ranks second in Central Speed and first in Adjusted Pass Efficiency, with a series-best pass differential of plus-108. ... Also in Need: Ryan Blaney, ranking fifth in Central Speed on moderate intermediates.

Needs to Capitalize at Richmond: Clint Bowyer: A 10-race playoff schedule featuring two short tracks is music to the ears of Bowyer, a former winner at both Richmond and Martinsville. He enters Round 1 with a Ford Fusion ranking second in Central Speed on tracks shorter than 1 mile. He ranks fourth in Adjusted Pass Efficiency at such facilities and holds a plus-39 pass differential. ... Also in Need: Joey Logano, ranking fourth in Central Speed on short tracks.

Needs to Capitalize at the Charlotte Road Course: Chase Elliott. Speed has been elusive to all four Hendrick Motorsports drivers in 2018 -- the quartet occupies spots 10, 12, 15 and 20 in the yearlong Central Speed rankings -- and Elliott, a winner at Watkins Glen and driver of the car ranked fourth in Central Speed specific to road courses, likely needs to game a good result to ensure his entry into Round 2. ... Also in Need: Alex Bowman, who averaged an 11.5-place finish, 4.5 spots better than his yearlong average, in regular-season road-course races.

Needs His Car to Start: Kyle Busch. There's only one driver whose car ranks in the top three for Central Speed on each track type -- moderate intermediates, short tracks and road courses -- in Round 1. It's Busch, the Regular Season Champion, who also ranks as the most efficient passer among playoff participants on short tracks. He won earlier this season at Richmond, holds three victories on 1.5-mile tracks and ranks as the second-best preferred groove restarter across all venues. ... Also in Need: Kevin Harvick, ranking first in overall Central Speed.