Statistical Superlatives: Round of 12 Preview

David Smith of MotorsportsAnalytics.com combed through the statistical strengths and weaknesses of drivers comprising the Round of 12 and awarded superlatives based on how they're likely to fare at Dover, Talladega and Kansas.

Most Likely to Advance Via Pit Strategy: Brad Keselowski

Last month, Keselowski won at Indianapolis despite having the 11th-fastest car in the race after crew chief Paul Wolfe‘s long-pitting strategy during green-flag cycles led to 21 additional positions on the race track. Long-pitting, or waiting until late in the pit cycle to make a stop, should be the ideal strategy for Dover and Kansas. Betting on cautions like they did at the Brickyard could yield a big reward.

Most Likely to Fly Under the Radar: Joey Logano

In ranking ninth, eighth and eighth in Central Speed on 1-mile tracks, restrictor-plate tracks and moderate intermediates, respectively, Logano sits as one of three playoff drivers with top-10 speed on each track in the Round of 12. He'll be reliant on that speed as gathering track position in other ways isn't likely; he's passed for 43 fewer positions than expected from a driver with his average running position this year.

Most Likely to Get Lost in the Shuffle: Alex Bowman

It's difficult to find the "why" in identifying Bowman's chances of advancing to the next round. The only track type in the Round of 12 on which he ranks inside the top 10 for Central Speed is restrictor-plate tracks, and races at Talladega tend to skew volatile. Furthermore, Bowman holds negative pass differential across all track types. He'll look to benefit from the misfortune of other drivers.

Most Likely to Steal A Finish: Kurt Busch

Do you remember Bristol? Busch rocketing away from the field on late restarts en route to the win wasn't a surprise. He's the best restarter in the sport, ranking first in position retention in both the preferred and non-preferred grooves among playoff drivers. His three best finishes this year -- first at Bristol, second at Talladega and third at Michigan -- came in events with at least one late-race restart.

Most Likely to Have A Finish Stolen: Martin Truex Jr.

Late restarts on the Charlotte Roval bit Truex's bid for a race victory, which further enforces the most bizarre average finish split in NASCAR this season. Truex has averaged a 3.8-place result in events without late-race restarts and a 17.6-place finish in races with at least one. It's a flummoxing split to be sure, and prompts questions about his ability to defend his running position with traffic nipping at his heels.

Most Likely Surprise Advancement: Aric Almirola

Almirola's record suggests he's a long shot to advance out of the Round of 12; however, he's far from a lost cause. A reliable long-run passer, he ranks sixth in Adjusted Pass Efficiency on 1-mile tracks this year, which should make Dover amenable. His Ford ranks as ninth fastest on moderate intermediates, better than three fellow playoff drivers. In his last four Talladega starts, he finished no worse than eighth.

Most Likely Surprise Elimination: Kyle Larson

This round feels as if it's designed to force Larson, ranking first in Adjusted Pass Efficiency (APE) and second in Central Speed on moderate intermediates, into a must-win scenario at Kansas. He is at his worst as a passer on Dover's 1-mile track type, ranking 11th in APE and 10th in speed. Talladega also looms. After 19 career starts, he's yet to earn a top-five finish on a restrictor-plate track.

Most Likely to Sweep the Round: Kevin Harvick

Since 2005, the fastest car in a given race won 40 percent of the time. Harvick, whose No. 4 Ford is the fastest car in the series this season, has the only vehicle that ranks inside the fastest five on all track types represented in this round. That elite speed served him well -- he won at both Dover and Kansas earlier this year and finished fourth at Talladega.