After the fourth Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs race, here’s a brief look at the playoffs picture. There are two races remaining in the Round of 12 before the field is whittled to eight, with four drivers eliminated from the postseason following Kansas (Oct. 21).
Winner
Chase Elliott notched his second win of his Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series career and advanced to the Round of 8 in the NASCAR Playoffs. Elliott stayed out on old tires to take the lead spot and survived two restarts — including one in NASCAR Overtime — to claim a victory on a day when he had to rebound from an earlier pit-road penalty. Elliott, who entered the day beneath the cutline, is safely into the next round.
Who’s hot
Kurt Busch. All the Stewart-Haas Racing cars had speed, but Busch ran the cleanest race. As a result, he gained 15 more points of cushion above the cutline to stand 21 points to the good. His fifth-place finish at Dover also gave him the tiebreaker over Brad Keselowski, who finished 14th, so Busch is ahead of Keselowski and in sixth place in the standings.
Kevin Harvick. Harvick had some pit-road issues to work through, but the No. 4 regained its dominance by leading 286 of the 404 laps and fighting back for a sixth-place finish. Harvick overtook Kyle Busch for the top spot in the standings and picked up two more playoff points by winning the first two stages.
Who’s not
Clint Bowyer. Bowyer was primed for a second straight top-five finish, but a loose wheel brought him to pit road in the final stage. Later, a flat tire led to him smashing the wall on Lap 391 of 404. Bowyer finished in 35th place, the worst of the playoff drivers, and now he’s beneath the cutline. Amazing for a driver who looked like he was in position to be a legit Championship 4 contender for much of this race.
WATCH: Bowyer blows tire, wrecks later
Aric Almirola. Almirola was in position for his first win in 148 races, but a call for four tires put the No. 10 Ford in sixth place going into a late restart. Perhaps feeling desperate to gain ground on that restart, Almirola made contact with Brad Keselowski and ignited a wreck that also collected Alex Bowman and Martin Truex Jr. among playoff drivers. Almirola fought back and finished 13th and actually gained points on the cutline, but coming close to a win and not getting it had to be heartbreaking. Can he bounce back?
WATCH: Almirola triggers wreck
BUBBLE WATCH
| Rank | Driver | Points to cutoff |
| 5. | Joey Logano | +31 |
| 6. | Kurt Busch | +21 |
| 7. | Brad Keselowski | +21 |
| 8. | Ryan Blaney | +10 |
| ————— | CUT-OFF LINE | ————— |
| 9. | Aric Almirola | -10 |
| 10. | Clint Bowyer | -10 |
| 11. | Kyle Larson | -12 |
| 12. | Alex Bowman | -34 |
Next race
The Monster Energy Series travels to Talladega Superspeedway for a Sunday race on Oct. 14 (2 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). It is the penultimate race in the Round of 12.
Who it favors/hurts
Favors: Team Penske drivers Brad Keselowski (five) and Joey Logano (three) have combined for eight wins at Talladega and they’ve had recent success there, too, by taking five of the past six checkered flags. Keselowski, who won this race last year, has led the most laps in the past five races at the 2.66-mile track, while Logano, who won the spring race this year, has led the most laps in the past three races there.
Hurts: Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Larson both have an average finish of 21.3 at Talladega, but Truex has raced at Talladega 27 times to Larson’s nine, thus a larger sample size. Truex can’t even hang his hat on good recent performances, either, as he’s finished 23rd or worse in his last four trips to Talladega. The only playoff driver with a worse average finish at Talladega than Truex and Larson is Alex Bowman at 27.3, but he’s coming off an eighth-place performance in the spring. Plus, four of his first six races here weren’t in Hendrick-quality cars, perhaps skewing his numbers.