The Round of 8, the final three races that will determine NASCAR’s Championship 4 field for Homestead-Miami Speedway, has arrived. Eight drivers will vie for four spots, sorting out the pecking order at Martinsville Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway and ISM Raceway at Phoenix.
That quest begins with Sunday’s First Data 500 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN/NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) at Martinsville. With the Monster Energy Series bracing for the finishing kick to the Nov. 18 season finale, NASCAR.com staff members have weighed in with their predictions for how the Round of 8 will unfold.
Zack Albert
Championship 4: Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano
Last one out: Chase Elliott
Outlook: The Big 3’s winning ways may have cooled slightly in the postseason, but the likelihood of a return to their regular programming runs high in the Round of 8. Harvick’s speed should carry him in all three races, especially Phoenix. Kyle Busch has few weak links remaining on the schedule, and he’s ripe to defend his Martinsville title this weekend. Should victories elude them, their bevy of playoff points should carry the baton. Figuring out the fourth for the Championship 4 is a near toss-up, but expect Team Penske to throw its resources behind the organization’s lone remaining driver in the playoff hunt: Logano.
Allie Davison
Championship 4: Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer
Last one out: Joey Logano
Outlook: There is no one statistically better than Kyle Busch at any of the tracks in the Round of 8, so a Championship 4 berth is all but locked up for the No. 18 team. Elliott is catching lightning in a bottle with two wins already in the postseason. He will need to make gains on points, but I believe the No. 9 team seals a spot with a win in the Round of 8. Harvick and Bowyer will represent Stewart-Haas Racing as the last two rounding it out, skating by on points.
Pat DeCola
Championship 4: Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr.
Last one out: Joey Logano
Outlook: Busch and Harvick enter the Round of 8 around 40 points to the good with some of their best tracks looming — they both are most likely in. Given how hot Elliott has been the second half of the season, it’s hard to pick against him. The opposite can be said about Truex Jr., who has struggled lately. I toiled over him versus Logano, but ultimately I’m sticking with the defending champ’s season-to-date resume and the best crew chief in the garage propelling him to his third Championship 4 appearance in four years.
RJ Kraft
Championship 4: Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano
Last one out: Martin Truex Jr.
Outlook: My predicted race winners — Elliott at Martinsville, Harvick at Texas and Logano at Phoenix — leave room for one driver to advance to the Championship 4 on points. That spot goes to Kyle Busch, who uses his edge in playoff points and solid showings at all three Round of 8 tracks to hold off Truex Jr.
Jonathan Merryman
Championship 4: Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano
Last one out: Martin Truex Jr.
Outlook: Looking at the numbers, Kyle Busch seems like a lock for the Championship 4 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Despite his points cushion, Kyle has been consistently good at Martinsville, Texas and ISM Raceway as of late. Harvick is a lock at ISM, Elliott is riding a wave of momentum and Logano continues to quietly point his way through. Truex was a tough call but unless he can pull off a win at Texas, I just don’t see the No. 78 team defending their title.
Jessica Ruffin
Championship 4: Clint Bowyer, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Kevin Harvick
Last one out: Joey Logano
Outlook: With their consistent strength (and points) all year, Kyle Busch and Harvick will make the Championship 4, but I believe fellow Big 3 driver and reigning series champion Truex Jr. won’t compete for his second straight title with the No. 78 team’s performances slowing as of late. Elliott will ride his current momentum all the way to Miami, while Bowyer will capitalize on Stewart-Haas Racing’s speed and his own playoff adrenaline for the final spot. Logano has enjoyed a strong playoff run thus far carrying the torch for Team Penske in the end of the playoffs, but his fire will burn out just before the finale.
Kathy Sheldon
Championship 4: Clint Bowyer, Chase Elliott, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr.
Last one out: Kyle Busch
Outlook: Call it a hunch, but Truex Jr.’s cold streak is about to snap. After leading zero laps in the past three races, Martinsville can put him in the mix with the powerhouse No. 4 team and surging Chase Elliott. The fourth spot looks like a horse race, and I’m betting on Bowyer as the second SHR car to make the Championship 4 with Ford prevailing again.
Chase Wilhelm
Championship 4: Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr.
Last one out: Clint Bowyer
Outlook: Some will say my picks include the Big 3 and Elliott, but I’d say it’s more like the Big 4. With two wins in the Round of 12, Elliott has made a late-season case to become the much-debated fourth member of the exclusive club. I was extremely closing to trading in Truex for Bowyer, but I think the No. 78 team strings together better finishes in the Round of 8.
George Winkler
Championship 4: Clint Bowyer, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Kevin Harvick
Last one out: Martin Truex Jr.
Outlook:Kyle Busch and Harvick are in the catbird seat thanks to playoff bonus points and tracks that favor them. Elliott is the driver who’s on a roll with two wins in the past three races. Meanwhile, Truex Jr. seems to have lost some speed, leaving the door open for a surprise like Bowyer, who won at Martinsville earlier this year and is also strong at ISM Raceway.