Ahead of Sunday’s AAA Texas 500 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoff race at Texas Motor Speedway, the second race in the Round of 8, we’ll analyze the four drivers below the cutline. Next up is Clint Bowyer, who sits seventh in the standings.
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Points below cutoff: 42
Reason for optimism at Texas: Clint Bowyer has a spotty record at Texas, but he did have a 13-race stretch where nine times he finished in the top 10. That included a second and fourth, along with a race were he led 44 laps, representing the most he’s ever led in a single race at Texas.
Reason for pessimism at Texas: This isn’t Bowyer’s worst track statistically, but it certainly isn’t near his best — especially in recent years. He has led all of one lap in the past 14 races and while he qualifies well — third in the spring — more often than not it has been a struggle come race day.
Reason for optimism at Phoenix: Anything can happen in an elimination race, particularly when a Championship 4 berth is on the line. And for a driver and team with nothing to lose and likely in a position where anything short of a win means being knocked out of the playoffs, Bowyer and crew chief Mike Bugarewicz can be as aggressive as they want without concern for the repercussions. That is not a bad thing in a race expected to be chaotic.
Reason for pessimism at Phoenix: Similar to Texas, Bowyer hasn’t had much success at Phoenix. His 18.4 average finish is his lowest among the 10 playoff tracks, and he has led only a single lap in the previous 24 races; worrisome statistics for someone who may need a win to advance.
Outlook: Considering his points deficit and how Texas and Phoenix have often flummoxed him, Bowyer winning one of the next two races appears doubtful. This doesn’t mean it’s impossible, just that his best hope requires circumstances working in his favor to create an opportunity for an upset win. Otherwise, in all likelihood he’ll be eliminated.