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Fantasy Fastlane: 2019 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500
By RJ Kraft | Published: February 22, 2019 16
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays, several under-the-radar options and plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from Westgate Las Vegas Sports Book.
PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today
PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 4.5-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has been THE driver to beat at Atlanta in recent years. Since joining SHR, he's led 915 of a possible 1,640 laps (55.8 percent). While he has only won once there in the past five races, he does have two career victories at Atlanta. This is the driver to build around.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 4.5-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has been THE driver to beat at Atlanta in recent years. Since joining SHR, he's led 915 of a possible 1,640 laps (55.8 percent). While he has only won once there in the past five races, he does have two career victories at Atlanta. This is the driver to build around.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has the best average finish in the past three Atlanta races -- 4.0 -- even better than Harvick's average finish in that stretch. Over that three-race span, he has a win, a runner-up finish and the second-most points. He is my other must-play.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has the best average finish in the past three Atlanta races -- 4.0 -- even better than Harvick's average finish in that stretch. Over that three-race span, he has a win, a runner-up finish and the second-most points. He is my other must-play.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 8.5-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex is on a stretch of six top-eight finishes in his last seven Atlanta starts and that dates back to his MWR days. He also has the fourth-best average running position. Truex has been one of the best on the intermediate tracks, but has not won at Atlanta.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 8.5-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex is on a stretch of six top-eight finishes in his last seven Atlanta starts and that dates back to his MWR days. He also has the fourth-best average running position. Truex has been one of the best on the intermediate tracks, but has not won at Atlanta.
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onathan Ferrey | Getty Images
Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 5.5-1
Fastlane forecast: The 2015 champion has two wins at Atlanta but he has just seven top 10s in 20 starts -- one of his lower top-10-to-start ratios on the circuit. The same could be said for Busch at Daytona and he was the runner-up. I'll save him for his stronger tracks next month.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 5.5-1
Fastlane forecast: The 2015 champion has two wins at Atlanta but he has just seven top 10s in 20 starts -- one of his lower top-10-to-start ratios on the circuit. The same could be said for Busch at Daytona and he was the runner-up. I'll save him for his stronger tracks next month.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: The Georgia native is one of four drivers to nab top 10s in each of the past three Atlanta races. During that stretch, he averaged 36.3 points – which is tied for third-best. He also holds the best average running position and that's an added reason to play him.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: The Georgia native is one of four drivers to nab top 10s in each of the past three Atlanta races. During that stretch, he averaged 36.3 points – which is tied for third-best. He also holds the best average running position and that's an added reason to play him.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 6.5-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano has four top 10s in his last six Atlanta starts. The reigning Monster Energy Series champion also has the fifth-most points earned in the past three races here. Keselowski is the preferred Penske play entering, but Logano is far from a bad choice.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 6.5-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano has four top 10s in his last six Atlanta starts. The reigning Monster Energy Series champion also has the fifth-most points earned in the past three races here. Keselowski is the preferred Penske play entering, but Logano is far from a bad choice.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has three victories at Atlanta with the last coming in 2010. Even so, he does have seven top-eight finishes in his past nine starts here. In the past three races here, he is tied for the third-most points. The results show him as a steady play here.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has three victories at Atlanta with the last coming in 2010. Even so, he does have seven top-eight finishes in his past nine starts here. In the past three races here, he is tied for the third-most points. The results show him as a steady play here.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Kyle Larson | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 8.5-1
Fastlane forecast: Larson has three top 10s in five starts at Atlanta including a runner-up finish in 2017. He's been an underrated driver on intermediates and the only thing missing from his resume at a 1.5-mile range track is a win. He's a solid choice this weekend, but not atop my list.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 8.5-1
Fastlane forecast: Larson has three top 10s in five starts at Atlanta including a runner-up finish in 2017. He's been an underrated driver on intermediates and the only thing missing from his resume at a 1.5-mile range track is a win. He's a solid choice this weekend, but not atop my list.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Erik Jones | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 22-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones has an average finish of 12.5 and an average of 26.0 points in two Atlanta starts. Those numbers are solid at a track that is tough on young drivers. I'd expect a slight uptick in performance Sunday.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 22-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones has an average finish of 12.5 and an average of 26.0 points in two Atlanta starts. Those numbers are solid at a track that is tough on young drivers. I'd expect a slight uptick in performance Sunday.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Daniel Suarez | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Odds: 55-1
Fastlane forecast: SHR was strong at this race last year. He ran well with this general rules package in the All-Star Race. Need a third reason? Suarez nabbed 10 stage points at Daytona; he had 59 total in the past two seasons.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Odds: 55-1
Fastlane forecast: SHR was strong at this race last year. He ran well with this general rules package in the All-Star Race. Need a third reason? Suarez nabbed 10 stage points at Daytona; he had 59 total in the past two seasons.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: His 18th-place finish in last year's Atlanta race isn't attention grabbing. What does grab my attention is how he battled back to lead half of the final stage of the Daytona 500. Lots of upside with this play.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: His 18th-place finish in last year's Atlanta race isn't attention grabbing. What does grab my attention is how he battled back to lead half of the final stage of the Daytona 500. Lots of upside with this play.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: In his last three races at Atlanta, Stenhouse has averaged 26.7 fantasy points and an average finish of 13.0. Steady numbers for a driver that is unlikely to be used the max number of times in this game.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: In his last three races at Atlanta, Stenhouse has averaged 26.7 fantasy points and an average finish of 13.0. Steady numbers for a driver that is unlikely to be used the max number of times in this game.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Since winning at Atlanta in 2012, Hamlin has three finishes of 38th in his last six starts there. Add in all the post-Daytona 500 obligations and revelry and it's reasonable to expect Hamlin to be off.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Since winning at Atlanta in 2012, Hamlin has three finishes of 38th in his last six starts there. Add in all the post-Daytona 500 obligations and revelry and it's reasonable to expect Hamlin to be off.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Ryan Newman | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: Don't be fooled by Newman's average starting spot in the past three Atlanta races (2.6). His average finish in those races is 27.0 and his average point total in that stretch is 15.7. Look elsewhere this weekend.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: Don't be fooled by Newman's average starting spot in the past three Atlanta races (2.6). His average finish in those races is 27.0 and his average point total in that stretch is 15.7. Look elsewhere this weekend.
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Daniel Shirey | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott, Kurt Busch; Garage: Erik Jones. Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece this weekend for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 2 p.m. ET on FOX.
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 2 p.m. ET on FOX.