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Fantasy Fastlane: 2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
By RJ Kraft | Published: March 29, 2019 16
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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NASCAR Digital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays, sleepers and plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from Westgate.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 9-2
Fastlane forecast: The repave agrees with Harvick. Since that occurred, he has two wins, four top-five finishes in four starts and has led 379 of his career 495 laps led at Texas. He's averaged 48.5 points in the two races with this rules package so far in 2019.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 9-2
Fastlane forecast: The repave agrees with Harvick. Since that occurred, he has two wins, four top-five finishes in four starts and has led 379 of his career 495 laps led at Texas. He's averaged 48.5 points in the two races with this rules package so far in 2019.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Forget about Martinsville -- Logano enters Texas with six straight top-seven finishes here -- the second-best point total in that span. And the two races with this rules package in 2019? He won at Vegas and placed second at Fontana. He's in.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Forget about Martinsville -- Logano enters Texas with six straight top-seven finishes here -- the second-best point total in that span. And the two races with this rules package in 2019? He won at Vegas and placed second at Fontana. He's in.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 7-2
Fastlane forecast: Busch is the defending race winner and has three victories at the Cup level here in the past six seasons. He has earned an average of 51.5 points in races with this rules package. Given that I didn't use him at Martinsville, he'll be in here.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 7-2
Fastlane forecast: Busch is the defending race winner and has three victories at the Cup level here in the past six seasons. He has earned an average of 51.5 points in races with this rules package. Given that I didn't use him at Martinsville, he'll be in here.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex hasn't won at Texas but has been a top-10 machine here since 2015 (seven in the past eight). Qualifying has been an early season bugaboo for MTJ with this package, but he's averaged 35 points in those two races. I'll wait and see here.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex hasn't won at Texas but has been a top-10 machine here since 2015 (seven in the past eight). Qualifying has been an early season bugaboo for MTJ with this package, but he's averaged 35 points in those two races. I'll wait and see here.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has two wins in 2019, but has yet to win at Texas in his Cup career. Prior to two finishes outside the top 10 here, Kes had eight top 10s in 11 starts at Texas. The real value: An average of 43.0 points in the two races with this rules package.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has two wins in 2019, but has yet to win at Texas in his Cup career. Prior to two finishes outside the top 10 here, Kes had eight top 10s in 11 starts at Texas. The real value: An average of 43.0 points in the two races with this rules package.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney is on a roll with three straight top-five finishes in 2019 and heads to one his stronger tracks. YRB has three straight top-six finishes here, won both stages in the spring 2017 race and has averaged 42.5 in that stretch. I like this play.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney is on a roll with three straight top-five finishes in 2019 and heads to one his stronger tracks. YRB has three straight top-six finishes here, won both stages in the spring 2017 race and has averaged 42.5 in that stretch. I like this play.
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Stacy Revere | Getty Images
Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: In last year's Texas races, Busch notched the second-most stage points at the track. He also enters this race with four straight top 10s here. Add in his strong start with CGR and an average of 39.5 points with this rules package and he's a start.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: In last year's Texas races, Busch notched the second-most stage points at the track. He also enters this race with four straight top 10s here. Add in his strong start with CGR and an average of 39.5 points with this rules package and he's a start.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Aric Almirola | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Say hello to the driver who's earned the sixth-most fantasy points so far. He comes into this race with five straight top 10s and an average of 38.8 points in that stretch. The real question is are these results the norm or an early-season hot streak?
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Say hello to the driver who's earned the sixth-most fantasy points so far. He comes into this race with five straight top 10s and an average of 38.8 points in that stretch. The real question is are these results the norm or an early-season hot streak?
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott has finished in the top 10 five out of six times at Texas -- and the lone finish outside was an 11th-place finish. In that stretch, he's earned the fourth-most points at the Lone Star State track.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott has finished in the top 10 five out of six times at Texas -- and the lone finish outside was an 11th-place finish. In that stretch, he's earned the fourth-most points at the Lone Star State track.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Erik Jones | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Texas provides Jones a great chance to turn the tide from his March funk -- he has three straight top 10s there. Last year, he had two fourth-place finishes and the fifth-most stage points here.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Texas provides Jones a great chance to turn the tide from his March funk -- he has three straight top 10s there. Last year, he had two fourth-place finishes and the fifth-most stage points here.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Stenhouse has no top 10s at Texas in 12 starts but does have three top 15s in his last four starts here. The added allure: He's averaged 31.0 points in the two races with this package.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Stenhouse has no top 10s at Texas in 12 starts but does have three top 15s in his last four starts here. The added allure: He's averaged 31.0 points in the two races with this package.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Austin Dillon | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 60-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon earned his first Texas top 10 last fall. RCR has made strides with this rules package as qualifying hasn’t been a problem. There's intrigue here but I'd like to see an average over 22 points.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 60-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon earned his first Texas top 10 last fall. RCR has made strides with this rules package as qualifying hasn’t been a problem. There's intrigue here but I'd like to see an average over 22 points.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Clint Bowyer | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: In the two races with the rules package for Texas, Bowyer has finished no better than 14th. He also has just one top 10 in his last nine Texas starts. This just isn't the weekend to utilize Bowyer.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: In the two races with the rules package for Texas, Bowyer has finished no better than 14th. He also has just one top 10 in his last nine Texas starts. This just isn't the weekend to utilize Bowyer.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: With this rules package, Hamlin has averaged 40 points in two races; a solid output. However, the recent Texas stats give me pause -- three top 10s (none last year) in his last 10 starts.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: With this rules package, Hamlin has averaged 40 points in two races; a solid output. However, the recent Texas stats give me pause -- three top 10s (none last year) in his last 10 starts.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, Ryan Blaney; Garage: Aric Almirola.
Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece this weekend for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET on FOX.
Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece this weekend for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET on FOX.