Hendrick Motorsports’ Jimmie Johnson will start from the pole position for Sunday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 (3 p.m. ET on FOX, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Does the seven-time champion merit a spot in your lineup? We’ve dissected the numbers to offer a suggested lineup worthy of your Fantasy Live consideration as you make roster decisions.
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Remember that the garage locks at the end of Stage 2. Once the final stage starts, your roster is locked in.
RJ Kraft’s Fantasy Live lineup for race day at Texas:
1. Jimmie Johnson
2. Joey Logano
3. Ryan Blaney
4. Brad Keselowski
5. Chase Elliott
Garage: Kurt Busch
Going to the rear: Alex Bowman (backup car), Ryan Newman (failed pre-race inspection twice)
RELATED: Odds for Texas | 10-lap averages from Texas | Podcast: Fantasy Fastlane
Analysis: The wealth of big names starting outside the top 10 on Sunday makes this a bit more complicated than previous weeks. Do you risk the use? Who is worth saving? It’s a delicate balance where owners have to assess risk vs. reward.
I’m rolling with half of my original lineup. Logano has been strong with this race package — top-two finishes at both Las Vegas and Fontana. Blaney had a solid 10-lap average, he’s a hot streak with three top-five finishes in a row and has three straight top-six finishes at the repaved Texas track. Even though he qualified 30th, I’m sticking with Kurt Busch but placing him in my garage. I like his recent Texas results a lot — four straight top 10s, like where I am on his usage and I also like his results with this package. He qualified 25th or worse at Las Vegas and Fontana but scored two top-six finishes and an average of 33.0 points in those races. An added benefit of rostering Kurt: He’s not a particular popular play right now based on ownership.
The additions to my lineup start with the pole sitter Jimmie Johnson. Do I feel comfortable with this? Not entirely based on the 2019 body of work thus far, but I haven’t used him yet, I figure he should be able to get some stage points and he’s been fast all weekend highlighted by his topping the 10-lap board in final practice. I putting Keselowski into my lineup as I go all in on Penske to no surprise of one Steve Letarte (why check one when you can check all three). He had the fourth-best 10-lap average in final practice and again, Penske has this package dialed in
which is why I am so bullish on this team.
My last spot was between Elliott, Kyle Larson, Daniel Suarez and Denny Hamlin. Larson has the worst starting spot of the four but had the best 10-lap average and a strong 15-lap average as well (h/t @MikeJoy500). Suarez qualified well, but I already feel like I’m taking a risk with “Seven-Time.” Hamlin has been better than all four with this package, but he is overall Texas body of work isn’t great, so that leaves me with Elliott. I like the starting spot and the history he’s had at Texas — a pretty consistent top-10 car here, so he gets the nod.
Since I am all in on Penske, I will be keeping the 2018 Big 3 trio of Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. on the sidelines as a tradeoff. Don’t want to be stuck playing one of the big boys if they are having just an average day. Busch is so good at Bristol and Richmond that he will be in my lineup in the coming weeks, I think we haven’t seen the 4 team’s best yet and Truex has several good tracks coming up in the next month — Richmond, Dover and Kansas.
For the bonus picks, I’m taking Hamlin to win Stage 1 with Blaney in Stage 2 and Kyle Busch for the win with Ford as the manufacturer pick.
Each week in this space, we’ll also highlight two Props Challenge items for players.
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1. The average starting position for the race winner the past six races at Texas Motor Speedway is 10.3. Will Sunday’s race winner start inside the top 10? I’m playing the odds here and saying no when you consider that Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch and Kyle Larson are all outside the top 10 to start. Could the winner come from inside the top 10? Sure, but I’ll take my chances from the group that is littered with past champions and strong drivers at Texas outside the top 10.
2. Which driver finishes better at Texas on Sunday: Matt DiBenedetto or Ty Dillon? I really like this prop a lot. On the surface, I’d initially go with DiBenedetto, but a closer look at the numbers says Dillon is the pick. Dillon was better in final practice on a single lap on the board as well as the 10-lap board. Dillon will start inside the top 10 while Matty D will roll off 26th. The Germain Racing driver has also finished better than DiBenedetto in all five Texas races they’ve been in together. For the season, Dillon is ahead of DiBenedetto in the point standings and has a 4-2 edge heads up on better finishes in 2019 races. So, I’m going with Dillon to finish better on Sunday.