Playoff Watch 2019: Analyzing postseason picture post-Chicagoland

From now until the regular-season finale at Indianapolis on Sept. 8, NASCAR.com will analyze the playoff picture on Monday. Here's how the postseason looks through 17 regular-season races (out of 26) after Alex Bowman's win at Chicagoland Speedway.



A few reminders:

-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.

-- Drivers earn 5 playoff points for each of their regular-season wins.

-- Drivers earn 1 playoff point for each stage win.

-- The top 10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale, starting with 15 points for the Regular Season Champion and ending one point for the 10th-place finisher.

Missing the cut

The race for the final few playoff spots is one to watch for the remaining nine races. Erik Jones gained a little ground and is now on the bubble line -- Ryan Newman, meanwhile, fell out of the playoff field this week.

16. Aric Almirola, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points

Stage wins: 0

Note: Almirola isn't necessarily in playoff trouble (yet), but Alex Bowman's first win of 2019 had to make him and all other non-winners feel uneasy.

15. Jimmie Johnson, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points

Stage wins: 0

Note: Johnson drove in the top five for much of the day at Chicagoland, re-joining the playoff field in the process. He looks on the verge of a breakthrough win.

14. Daniel Suarez, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points

Stage wins: 0

Note: It was a disappointing day for the entirety of Stewart-Haas Racing at Chicagoland. Suarez dropped two points in the regular-season standings and is just 18 points above the cutoff line.

13. Clint Bowyer, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points

Stage wins: 0

Note: Bowyer's miserable day at Chicagoland ended with a dented car and a 37th-place finish, costing him four spots in the standings.

12. William Byron, 2,001 points

Qualified via: Points

Stage wins: 1

Note: Teammate Alex Bowman's win has to give Byron confidence -- the entire organization is running on all cylinders.

11. Ryan Blaney, 2,003 points

Qualified via: Points

Stage wins: 2

Note: Blaney was powering his way through the field and making up incredible time on the leader -- but an earlier blown tire made it daunting for him to truly compete for the win.

10. Kyle Larson, 2,003 points

Qualified via: Points

Stage wins: 3

Note: More heartache for Larson at Chicago, but if he keeps contending for race wins like that, he'll win 'em at some point.

9. Kurt Busch, 2,003 points

Qualified via: Points

Stage wins: 0

Note: Alex Bowman gained ground on Kurt Busch in the regular-season standings, but the Chip Ganassi Racing veteran is in a comfortable position so far.

8. Alex Bowman, 2,007 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Chicagoland)

Stage wins: 0

Note: Bowman broke through for his first career victory. No need to watch the points race anymore. It's all about winning more now.

7. Kevin Harvick, 2,011 points

Qualified via: Points

Stage wins: 4

Note: Many thought Harvick had the car to beat, and he did lead a race-high 132 laps. But he also scrubbed the wall on his own doing, and he couldn't recover.

6. Chase Elliott, 2,011 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Talladega)

Stage wins: 2

Note: Elliott's car was blazing fast in the Windy City, and we expect him to win another race (or more) before the playoffs start.

5. Denny Hamlin, 2,018 points

Qualified via: 2 wins (Daytona 500, Texas)

Stage wins: 4

Note: Hamlin added another stage win to his playoff points total, but pit-road problems persist for this team.

4. Brad Keselowski, 2,027 points

Qualified via: 3 wins (Atlanta, Martinsville, Kansas)

Stage wins: 4

Note: Keselowski is just one point behind Martin Truex Jr. as the playoff field stands today.

3. Martin Truex Jr., 2,028 points

Qualified via: 4 wins (Richmond, Dover, Coca-Cola 600, Sonoma)

Stage wins: 2

Note: Truex Jr. must be careful. He has Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott in his rearview mirror in the regular-season standings, where playoff points are at stake.

2. Joey Logano, 2,031 points

Qualified via: 2 wins (Las Vegas, Michigan)

Stage wins: 6

Note: Logano would be the Regular-Season Champion if the season ended today, and he padded his lead slightly over Kyle Busch in that regard.

1. Kyle Busch, 2,035 points

Qualified via: 4 wins (ISM Raceway at Phoenix, Auto Club, Bristol-1, Pocono-1)

Stage wins: 5

Note: Busch remains the top seed for the NASCAR Playoffs despite a finish outside the top 20.