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Fantasy Fastlane: 2019 Quaker State 400
By RJ Kraft | Published: July 11, 2019 16
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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NASCAR DIgital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays, sleepers and plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from Westgate Sports Book.
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PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has won twice at Kentucky Speedway and finished in the top five here 75 percent of the time. His 5.0 average finish is best among the field. Those stats scream "must play" but keep this in mind: He has earned less than 20 points in two of his last three 1.5-mile starts.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has won twice at Kentucky Speedway and finished in the top five here 75 percent of the time. His 5.0 average finish is best among the field. Those stats scream "must play" but keep this in mind: He has earned less than 20 points in two of his last three 1.5-mile starts.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 7-2
Fastlane forecast: Truex has won the last two Kentucky races and has all four stage wins at the track. This season, the 2017 champion has four races of at least 38 points in six races, including a Charlotte Motor Speedway victory, at 1.5-mile tracks. Time to turn him loose in Fantasy Live.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 7-2
Fastlane forecast: Truex has won the last two Kentucky races and has all four stage wins at the track. This season, the 2017 champion has four races of at least 38 points in six races, including a Charlotte Motor Speedway victory, at 1.5-mile tracks. Time to turn him loose in Fantasy Live.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Kentucky is one of three tracks where Harvick has yet to win. He has run well enough there in eight starts with six straight top 10s but just one top five. He has been strong on 1.5-milers all year with five races (out of six) with at least 37 points.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Kentucky is one of three tracks where Harvick has yet to win. He has run well enough there in eight starts with six straight top 10s but just one top five. He has been strong on 1.5-milers all year with five races (out of six) with at least 37 points.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano has been good -- not great -- at Kentucky with five top 10s in eight starts. His 1.5-mile stats have been up and down of late, but he did win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. It comes down to uses, and there are tracks left I like better for the reigning champ.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano has been good -- not great -- at Kentucky with five top 10s in eight starts. His 1.5-mile stats have been up and down of late, but he did win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. It comes down to uses, and there are tracks left I like better for the reigning champ.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has won three times in eight races at Kentucky. He has six top-seven finishes and led in all but two races here. The 2012 champion has been strong on 1.5-mile tracks this year with two wins and at least 38 points in five races.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has won three times in eight races at Kentucky. He has six top-seven finishes and led in all but two races here. The 2012 champion has been strong on 1.5-mile tracks this year with two wins and at least 38 points in five races.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott enters Kentucky with the second-most points earned on 1.5-mile tracks, according to Racing Insights. He has five races (out of six) with at least 32 points on 1.5-mile tracks this season. The sport's most popular driver finished third here in 2017.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott enters Kentucky with the second-most points earned on 1.5-mile tracks, according to Racing Insights. He has five races (out of six) with at least 32 points on 1.5-mile tracks this season. The sport's most popular driver finished third here in 2017.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman's three previous starts at Kentucky are forgettable. What is not forgettable is he's the last winner at a 1.5-mile track. His last three starts on 1.5-mile tracks have yielded no finish worse than seventh and an average of 45 points per race.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman's three previous starts at Kentucky are forgettable. What is not forgettable is he's the last winner at a 1.5-mile track. His last three starts on 1.5-mile tracks have yielded no finish worse than seventh and an average of 45 points per race.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has one top five and five top 10s in eight Kentucky starts. Kentucky is his best regular-season track left (based on average finish). The 2004 champion has been consistent on the 1.5-mile tracks this year with an average of 32 points per race.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has one top five and five top 10s in eight Kentucky starts. Kentucky is his best regular-season track left (based on average finish). The 2004 champion has been consistent on the 1.5-mile tracks this year with an average of 32 points per race.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Erik Jones | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Kentucky will be a welcome sight for the playoff bubble driver. Jones has an average finish of 6.5 and 36 points in two starts there. He also has four races of at least 30 points over the past five on 1.5-mile tracks.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Kentucky will be a welcome sight for the playoff bubble driver. Jones has an average finish of 6.5 and 36 points in two starts there. He also has four races of at least 30 points over the past five on 1.5-mile tracks.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Want to ride a hot hand? Byron has six races of at least 34 points over the past eight. Stage points sparked the performance uptick with 64 in the past six races; he had just 32 in the first 12.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Want to ride a hot hand? Byron has six races of at least 34 points over the past eight. Stage points sparked the performance uptick with 64 in the past six races; he had just 32 in the first 12.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Jimmie Johnson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Kentucky is one of four tracks where "Seven-Time" has yet to win. His 1.5-mile results have been really good in the last four: All top-eight finishes and an average of 37.8 points.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Kentucky is one of four tracks where "Seven-Time" has yet to win. His 1.5-mile results have been really good in the last four: All top-eight finishes and an average of 37.8 points.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: More of an under-the-radar sleeper who won't be heavily owned. Stenhouse’s point totals on the last five 1.5-mile tracks dating back to Las Vegas: 25, 36, 40, 25 and 39 -- good for an average of 33 points.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: More of an under-the-radar sleeper who won't be heavily owned. Stenhouse’s point totals on the last five 1.5-mile tracks dating back to Las Vegas: 25, 36, 40, 25 and 39 -- good for an average of 33 points.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: After a strong start, Hamlin has just two top 10s in his last nine starts, notching more than 35 points in just one race. His Kentucky record -- three top fives in eight starts -- shows similar ups and downs.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: After a strong start, Hamlin has just two top 10s in his last nine starts, notching more than 35 points in just one race. His Kentucky record -- three top fives in eight starts -- shows similar ups and downs.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Aric Almirola | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Almirola notched a top 10 here last year, but this designation is a reflection of the fact he has been a top 15, not top-10 car the past two months. Others have taken a step forward; AA has dipped off.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Almirola notched a top 10 here last year, but this designation is a reflection of the fact he has been a top 15, not top-10 car the past two months. Others have taken a step forward; AA has dipped off.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski, William Byron and Alex Bowman; Garage: Chase Elliott. Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece this weekend for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Saturday’s race at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN.
with your lineups and questions before Saturday’s race at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN.