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Playoff Watch 2019: Analyzing postseason picture post-Kentucky
By Brad Norman | Published: July 14, 2019 19
Daniel Shirey | Getty Images
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
From now until the regular-season finale at Indianapolis on Sept. 8, NASCAR.com will analyze the playoff picture on Mondays. Here's how the postseason looks through 19 regular-season races (out of 26) after Kurt Busch's win at Kentucky.
A few reminders:
-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.
-- Drivers earn 5 playoff points for each of their regular-season wins.
-- Drivers earn 1 playoff point for each stage win.
-- The top 10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale, starting with 15 points for the Regular Season Champion and ending one point for the 10th-place finisher.
A few reminders:
-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.
-- Drivers earn 5 playoff points for each of their regular-season wins.
-- Drivers earn 1 playoff point for each stage win.
-- The top 10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale, starting with 15 points for the Regular Season Champion and ending one point for the 10th-place finisher.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Missing the cut
The race for the final few playoff spots is one to watch for the remaining seven races. Daniel Suarez slipped from 14th in the postseason picture to outside entirely, joining Ryan Newman as the last two drivers below the cutoff line. The line is thin, though. Newman is two points below the cutoff line, and Suarez is just four below.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
16. Erik Jones, 2,000 points
Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Jones is back in the playoff field for the first time in more than a month following a gritty third-place run.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
15. Jimmie Johnson, 2,000 points
Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Johnson left Kentucky with a beat-up race car, but still in the playoff field for now.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
14. Clint Bowyer, 2,000 points
Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Bowyer appeared to right the ship after a really, really bad stretch for the No. 14 team.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
13. William Byron, 2,001 points
Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 1
Note: Kurt Busch's win, his first of the season, has to put guys like William Byron -- toward the bottom of the playoff field, and winless -- on notice.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
12. Aric Almirola, 2,001 points
Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Almirola is only seven points ahead of hard-charging Ryan Blaney in the regular-season standings. In 10th place, one playoff point is on the line for that position.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
11. Ryan Blaney, 2,002 points
Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 2
Note: Stage points could be a difference for Blaney in the next seven races as he looks to crack the top 10 in the standings.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
10. Kyle Larson, 2,003 points
Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 3
Note: Larson pushed teammate Kurt Busch to victory on Saturday; now, he desperately needs a win of his own.
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Jonathan Daniel | Getty Images
9. Alex Bowman, 2,007 points
Qualified via: 1 win (Chicagoland)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Bowman slips a spot in the field this week, but he holds strong at 2,007 points if the playoffs started today.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
9. Alex Bowman, 2,007 points
Qualified via: 1 win (Chicagoland)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Bowman slips a spot in the field this week, but he holds strong at 2,007 points if the playoffs started today.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
8. Chase Elliott, 2,010 points
Qualified via: 1 win (Talladega)
Stage wins: 2
Note: The No. 9 had long-run speed in practice at Kentucky, but it didn't translate to the results.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
7. Kurt Busch, 2,010 points
Qualified via: 1 win (Kentucky)
Stage wins: 1
Note: Saturday's win resulted in a seven-point gain for Kurt Busch in this playoff exercise -- five playoff points for the win, one playoff point for the stage win and one playoff point for moving up to seventh in the regular-season standings.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
6. Kevin Harvick, 2,012 points
Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 4
Note: It's hard to believe Harvick's best finish this year is fourth place -- although he has five such finishes.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
5. Denny Hamlin, 2,019 points
Qualified via: 2 wins (Daytona 500, Texas)
Stage wins: 3
Note: Hamlin managed a top-five finish thanks to a wild NASCAR Overtime finish, jumping a spot in the regular-season standings in the process.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
4. Brad Keselowski, 2,026 points
Qualified via: 3 wins (Atlanta, Martinsville, Kansas)
Stage wins: 4
Note: Keselowski has a strong run of tracks coming up and could make serious gains on the field by early August.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
3. Martin Truex Jr., 2,027 points
Qualified via: 4 wins (Richmond, Dover, Coca-Cola 600, Sonoma)
Stage wins: 2
Note: Truex Jr.'s No. 19 usually comes alive in those day-night races, but not Saturday.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
2. Joey Logano, 2,032 points
Qualified via: 2 wins (Las Vegas, Michigan)
Stage wins: 7
Note: Logano had the fastest car at Kentucky and a shot at jumping to first in the playoff field, but a late caution yielded a seventh-place finish. He was leading at the time of the yellow.
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Daniel Shirey | Getty Images
1. Kyle Busch, 2,036 points
Qualified via: 4 wins (ISM Raceway at Phoenix, Auto Club, Bristol-1, Pocono-1)
Stage wins: 5
Note: Busch remains the top seed for the NASCAR Playoffs, and he gained a playoff point with a stage win at Kentucky. Finishing an oh-so-close second has to sting as he missed out on an additional five playoff points.