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Bubble watch: Analyzing drivers fighting for the playoffs in advance of Pocono-2
By Marissa Fuller | Published: July 26, 2019 12
Jonathan Ferrey | Getty Images
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Jonathan Ferrey | Getty Images
Pocono. Watkins Glen. Michigan. Bristol. Darlington. Indianapolis.
Six races left in the regular season and for those without a win thus far in the 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series, every stage point, every track, every finish is beyond crucial in the hunt for their spot. Let’s take a dive into the playoff bubble and analyze the drivers currently in and out.
Six races left in the regular season and for those without a win thus far in the 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series, every stage point, every track, every finish is beyond crucial in the hunt for their spot. Let’s take a dive into the playoff bubble and analyze the drivers currently in and out.
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Ryan Blaney +67 points above cutline
What to expect … Blaney has one win in seven starts at the 'Tricky Triangle' with one top five, three top 10s and one pole to accompany it. At last year's second Pocono race, Blaney started 33rd and finished 12th, while in the first Pocono race this season, Blaney also finished 12th. The Team Penske driver needs a strong finish as well as stage points to continue narrowing the gap between him and the cutline. A bad finish or error for Blaney could result in a big loss if the other bubble drivers are mistake-free and also use stage-point strategy.
Poco-NO or Poco-YES? Pocono is the site of Blaney's first career win and he has a good history at the track. There are tracks where he is better, but having the confidence of a previous win in mind, this should be a strong showing for him.
What to expect … Blaney has one win in seven starts at the 'Tricky Triangle' with one top five, three top 10s and one pole to accompany it. At last year's second Pocono race, Blaney started 33rd and finished 12th, while in the first Pocono race this season, Blaney also finished 12th. The Team Penske driver needs a strong finish as well as stage points to continue narrowing the gap between him and the cutline. A bad finish or error for Blaney could result in a big loss if the other bubble drivers are mistake-free and also use stage-point strategy.
Poco-NO or Poco-YES? Pocono is the site of Blaney's first career win and he has a good history at the track. There are tracks where he is better, but having the confidence of a previous win in mind, this should be a strong showing for him.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
William Byron +44 points above cutline
What to expect … At the first Pocono race this season, William Byron and crew chief Chad Knaus chased stage points, playing it safe and ensuring they'd leave with some confidence. Expect to see Byron and his No. 24 team play that strategy again this weekend to keep themselves in a playoff-positive spot … aka above the cutline. A good starting position will help and Byron won the Busch Pole Award here earlier this season. Keeping the Chevrolet out of trouble with a good finish will be key to the No. 24 team's success.
Poco-NO or Poco-YES? Byron has seen success at the 2.5-mile track in his three previous starts. He's finished in the top 10 in the last two, sixth and ninth respectively. Another pole award could do wonders for the No. 24 team.
What to expect … At the first Pocono race this season, William Byron and crew chief Chad Knaus chased stage points, playing it safe and ensuring they'd leave with some confidence. Expect to see Byron and his No. 24 team play that strategy again this weekend to keep themselves in a playoff-positive spot … aka above the cutline. A good starting position will help and Byron won the Busch Pole Award here earlier this season. Keeping the Chevrolet out of trouble with a good finish will be key to the No. 24 team's success.
Poco-NO or Poco-YES? Byron has seen success at the 2.5-mile track in his three previous starts. He's finished in the top 10 in the last two, sixth and ninth respectively. Another pole award could do wonders for the No. 24 team.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Kyle Larson +14 points above cutline
What to expect … Kyle Larson left Pocono-1 with a 26th-place finish and heads into this weekend in a semi-uncomfortable position at only 14 points above the cutline. It would be no surprise if the No. 42 team played the stage-point strategy to conserve its Chevrolet and add points. Larson has seen some bad luck this season including five DNFs, most recently last weekend at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. He has managed three top fives, seven top 10s and one pole to date. It would make sense for Larson and his Chip Ganassi Racing team to chase down all the points possible.
Poco-NO or Poco-YES? Larson has a hot-and-cold relationship with Pocono Raceway. He has 11 starts with two top fives, five top 10s and one pole. Recently, he’s seen a string of bad finishes at the 2.5-mile track. In June, Larson started 32nd and was only able to make his way up to 23rd.
What to expect … Kyle Larson left Pocono-1 with a 26th-place finish and heads into this weekend in a semi-uncomfortable position at only 14 points above the cutline. It would be no surprise if the No. 42 team played the stage-point strategy to conserve its Chevrolet and add points. Larson has seen some bad luck this season including five DNFs, most recently last weekend at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. He has managed three top fives, seven top 10s and one pole to date. It would make sense for Larson and his Chip Ganassi Racing team to chase down all the points possible.
Poco-NO or Poco-YES? Larson has a hot-and-cold relationship with Pocono Raceway. He has 11 starts with two top fives, five top 10s and one pole. Recently, he’s seen a string of bad finishes at the 2.5-mile track. In June, Larson started 32nd and was only able to make his way up to 23rd.
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Erik Jones +11 points above cutline
What to expect … Erik Jones heads to Pocono Raceway with a lot of momentum on his side after grabbing back-to-back third-place finishes in the last two events. Jones is also especially good at Pocono -- four top 10s in five starts -- that a win doesn’t seem out of the question for this weekend. The driver of the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota is only 11 points in the playoff clear right now, so stage points will be a big part of his Sunday plan -- as well as making sure he has a clean and good finish.
Poco-NO or Poco-YES? Jones seems to have mastered the art of the 'Tricky Triangle' with three top fives in five career starts at Pocono. At last year's second Pocono race, Jones started fifth and finished third -- the same finish he had earlier this season.
What to expect … Erik Jones heads to Pocono Raceway with a lot of momentum on his side after grabbing back-to-back third-place finishes in the last two events. Jones is also especially good at Pocono -- four top 10s in five starts -- that a win doesn’t seem out of the question for this weekend. The driver of the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota is only 11 points in the playoff clear right now, so stage points will be a big part of his Sunday plan -- as well as making sure he has a clean and good finish.
Poco-NO or Poco-YES? Jones seems to have mastered the art of the 'Tricky Triangle' with three top fives in five career starts at Pocono. At last year's second Pocono race, Jones started fifth and finished third -- the same finish he had earlier this season.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Ryan Newman +4 points above cutline
What to expect … Ryan Newman has to have a good day Sunday at Pocono, no question. Only four points above the playoff cutline isn’t a comfortable place for Newman to sit. He has finished inside the top 10 in the last three races (Daytona, Kentucky, New Hampshire) and will be aiming to do the same at Pocono to cushion his cutline edge.
Poco-NO or Poco-YES? At this race in 2018, Newman started ninth and finished eighth. Earlier this year, Newman finished 16th. Momentum is on Newman’s side right now with his recent top-10 finishes and a good finish earlier in the season at the 'Tricky Triangle' but it’s crucial for the No. 6 to have an all-around solid day -- including a lot of stage points.
What to expect … Ryan Newman has to have a good day Sunday at Pocono, no question. Only four points above the playoff cutline isn’t a comfortable place for Newman to sit. He has finished inside the top 10 in the last three races (Daytona, Kentucky, New Hampshire) and will be aiming to do the same at Pocono to cushion his cutline edge.
Poco-NO or Poco-YES? At this race in 2018, Newman started ninth and finished eighth. Earlier this year, Newman finished 16th. Momentum is on Newman’s side right now with his recent top-10 finishes and a good finish earlier in the season at the 'Tricky Triangle' but it’s crucial for the No. 6 to have an all-around solid day -- including a lot of stage points.
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Clint Bowyer final spot of 16 playoff drivers
What to expect … Clint Bowyer is another playoff bubble driver who has to play it smart and safe at Pocono this weekend. He can’t afford any mistakes or too-daring moves that might end in a crash. Like many of his fellow drivers fighting for a playoff spot, expect Bowyer to play the stage-point game. A win would be the ideal situation for the driver of the No. 14 but does it seem realistic that the win will come at the 'Tricky Triangle?' Maybe.
Poco-NO or Poco-YES? Bowyer finished fifth in this season's spring race at Pocono, marking a good day at the 2.5-mile track for the Stewart-Haas Racing team. At this race last year, Bowyer started 31st and worked his way up to an 11th-place finish. In all, Bowyer has three top fives and 11 top 10s at Pocono.
What to expect … Clint Bowyer is another playoff bubble driver who has to play it smart and safe at Pocono this weekend. He can’t afford any mistakes or too-daring moves that might end in a crash. Like many of his fellow drivers fighting for a playoff spot, expect Bowyer to play the stage-point game. A win would be the ideal situation for the driver of the No. 14 but does it seem realistic that the win will come at the 'Tricky Triangle?' Maybe.
Poco-NO or Poco-YES? Bowyer finished fifth in this season's spring race at Pocono, marking a good day at the 2.5-mile track for the Stewart-Haas Racing team. At this race last year, Bowyer started 31st and worked his way up to an 11th-place finish. In all, Bowyer has three top fives and 11 top 10s at Pocono.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
Jimmie Johnson -17 points below cutline
What to expect … Jimmie Johnson can’t seem to catch a break this season. Still winless and with only three top fives, eight top 10s and one pole on the season, Seven-Time knows what he needs: good, solid finishes. Except momentum isn’t coming from the last two weekends after wrecking at Kentucky and suffering a mechanical issue at New Hampshire. He’s only below the cutline by 17 points so it is possible to catch up -- but not if he is graced by any more bad luck.
Poco-NO or Poco-YES? Johnson is no stranger to Pocono Raceway. This weekend will mark his 36th career start with three wins, 11 top fives 20 top 10s and three poles. If he can stay ahead of fellow bubble drivers Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman on the track, there’s a good chance he could swap spots with them in the standings post-Pocono.
What to expect … Jimmie Johnson can’t seem to catch a break this season. Still winless and with only three top fives, eight top 10s and one pole on the season, Seven-Time knows what he needs: good, solid finishes. Except momentum isn’t coming from the last two weekends after wrecking at Kentucky and suffering a mechanical issue at New Hampshire. He’s only below the cutline by 17 points so it is possible to catch up -- but not if he is graced by any more bad luck.
Poco-NO or Poco-YES? Johnson is no stranger to Pocono Raceway. This weekend will mark his 36th career start with three wins, 11 top fives 20 top 10s and three poles. If he can stay ahead of fellow bubble drivers Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman on the track, there’s a good chance he could swap spots with them in the standings post-Pocono.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Daniel Suarez -17 points below cutline
What to expect … Daniel Suarez and Jimmie Johnson are currently tied for the first spot below the playoff cutline. Suarez has seen a lot of improvement and a lot of speed so far in 2019 but still hasn’t been able to capitalize on that. His numbers at Pocono are in his favor but as he searches for his first career win, patience is going to be a key factor for the driver of the No. 41. Crew chief Billy Scott knows as well as anyone that if they don’t have a good day, there’s no option other than to win and get into the playoffs.
Poco-NO or Poco-YES? It’s hard to say that Suarez is a "no" when it comes to Pocono because in his five starts, he has one top five, three top 10s and one pole. Those aren’t bad numbers but they might not be enough right now. Other playoff bubble drivers look like stronger choices.
What to expect … Daniel Suarez and Jimmie Johnson are currently tied for the first spot below the playoff cutline. Suarez has seen a lot of improvement and a lot of speed so far in 2019 but still hasn’t been able to capitalize on that. His numbers at Pocono are in his favor but as he searches for his first career win, patience is going to be a key factor for the driver of the No. 41. Crew chief Billy Scott knows as well as anyone that if they don’t have a good day, there’s no option other than to win and get into the playoffs.
Poco-NO or Poco-YES? It’s hard to say that Suarez is a "no" when it comes to Pocono because in his five starts, he has one top five, three top 10s and one pole. Those aren’t bad numbers but they might not be enough right now. Other playoff bubble drivers look like stronger choices.
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Paul Menard -60 points below cutline
What to expect … A 60-point deficit is a tough one to crawl out of and Paul Menard might not be able to make it happen. Consider that his season has not been great, with only two top 10s, so far. Menard also didn’t have a great showing at Pocono earlier this year with an 18th-place finish -- meaning there isn’t even a sense of comfort heading into this weekend. Menard needs a good finish and a good strategy to keep the No. 21 out of harm’s way this weekend.
Poco-NO or Poco-YES? Menard has 25 Pocono starts and only two top 10s. At this race in 2018, Menard started 36th and finished 21st. The 'Tricky Triangle' has definitely had an emphasis on "tricky" for Menard.
What to expect … A 60-point deficit is a tough one to crawl out of and Paul Menard might not be able to make it happen. Consider that his season has not been great, with only two top 10s, so far. Menard also didn’t have a great showing at Pocono earlier this year with an 18th-place finish -- meaning there isn’t even a sense of comfort heading into this weekend. Menard needs a good finish and a good strategy to keep the No. 21 out of harm’s way this weekend.
Poco-NO or Poco-YES? Menard has 25 Pocono starts and only two top 10s. At this race in 2018, Menard started 36th and finished 21st. The 'Tricky Triangle' has definitely had an emphasis on "tricky" for Menard.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. -77 points below cutline
What to expect … At this point, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. needs to win. It's starting to look like that’s the only way the No. 17 Roush Fenway Racing Ford will be in the playoffs. Expect Stenhouse to be even more aggressive than he usually is -- hard to imagine, right? But with a win the main focus, aggressive moves seem certain to be in Stenhouse’s future at Pocono.
Poco-NO or Poco-YES? Pocono and Stenhouse are not two peas in a pod. He has 13 starts at the 2.5-mile track and has never finished inside the top 10. Last season, he started 17th and finished 22nd, while earlier this year, he finished 32nd.
What to expect … At this point, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. needs to win. It's starting to look like that’s the only way the No. 17 Roush Fenway Racing Ford will be in the playoffs. Expect Stenhouse to be even more aggressive than he usually is -- hard to imagine, right? But with a win the main focus, aggressive moves seem certain to be in Stenhouse’s future at Pocono.
Poco-NO or Poco-YES? Pocono and Stenhouse are not two peas in a pod. He has 13 starts at the 2.5-mile track and has never finished inside the top 10. Last season, he started 17th and finished 22nd, while earlier this year, he finished 32nd.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Chris Buescher -87 points below cutline
What to expect … It’s not going to be very easy for Chris Buescher to put his No. 37 in the playoffs without a win. He's too many points behind and there are only six races left in the regular season, after all. Buescher needs to be careful, too, though, on a smaller team like JTG Daugherty Racing, which needs to save cars from too much damage. But when a playoff berth is on the line, all bets are off.
Poco-NO or Poco-YES? Buescher has a happy memory of Pocono Raceway: His first career win in 2016. Could he make it two? Earlier this season he finished 14th at the 'Tricky Triangle' but a year ago, he started 12th and finished 37th. It’s a roller coaster for Buescher at Pocono, but maybe he’ll make it out on top.
What to expect … It’s not going to be very easy for Chris Buescher to put his No. 37 in the playoffs without a win. He's too many points behind and there are only six races left in the regular season, after all. Buescher needs to be careful, too, though, on a smaller team like JTG Daugherty Racing, which needs to save cars from too much damage. But when a playoff berth is on the line, all bets are off.
Poco-NO or Poco-YES? Buescher has a happy memory of Pocono Raceway: His first career win in 2016. Could he make it two? Earlier this season he finished 14th at the 'Tricky Triangle' but a year ago, he started 12th and finished 37th. It’s a roller coaster for Buescher at Pocono, but maybe he’ll make it out on top.