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2019 championship hopefuls: Making the case for and against
By Zack Albert | Published: September 11, 2019 16
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1. KYLE BUSCH
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing No. 18 Toyota
Points: 2,045
2019 wins: 4
Why he'll win the championship: The stockpile of 45 playoff points that carry from round to round should smooth out the regular-season champ's path to the title clash at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Why he won't: Only if lightning strikes twice -- especially at the unpredictable trouble spots (Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval, Talladega Superspeedway) -- will the No. 18 team be facing an uphill climb.
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing No. 18 Toyota
Points: 2,045
2019 wins: 4
Why he'll win the championship: The stockpile of 45 playoff points that carry from round to round should smooth out the regular-season champ's path to the title clash at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Why he won't: Only if lightning strikes twice -- especially at the unpredictable trouble spots (Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval, Talladega Superspeedway) -- will the No. 18 team be facing an uphill climb.
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2. DENNY HAMLIN
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota
Points: 2,030
2019 wins: 4
Why he'll win the championship: A midseason head of steam -- two wins among a recent six-race streak of top fives -- bodes well for the No. 11 team. So does a favorable assortment of tracks in the 10-race postseason.
Why he won't: Hamlin's tendency toward playoff snakebite hangs like a cloud. The No. 11 driver hasn't made the Championship 4 since the first year of the elimination format (2014).
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota
Points: 2,030
2019 wins: 4
Why he'll win the championship: A midseason head of steam -- two wins among a recent six-race streak of top fives -- bodes well for the No. 11 team. So does a favorable assortment of tracks in the 10-race postseason.
Why he won't: Hamlin's tendency toward playoff snakebite hangs like a cloud. The No. 11 driver hasn't made the Championship 4 since the first year of the elimination format (2014).
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3. MARTIN TRUEX JR.
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 Toyota
Points: 2,029
2019 wins: 4
Why he'll win the championship: New team? No big deal. Truex's pairing with crew chief Cole Pearn remains one of the best combos in the garage and a crunch-time difference maker.
Why he won't: The No. 19 team isn't exactly making a lion's roar into the postseason with three straight finishes outside the top 10.
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 Toyota
Points: 2,029
2019 wins: 4
Why he'll win the championship: New team? No big deal. Truex's pairing with crew chief Cole Pearn remains one of the best combos in the garage and a crunch-time difference maker.
Why he won't: The No. 19 team isn't exactly making a lion's roar into the postseason with three straight finishes outside the top 10.
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4. KEVIN HARVICK
Team: Stewart-Haas Racing No. 4 Ford
Points: 2,028
2019 wins: 3
Why he'll win the championship: In the final seven races of the regular season, Harvick & Co. have finished strong with three wins, two poles and six top 10s in that stretch. The No. 4 team has a way of keeping momentum rolling with some friendly tracks ahead.
Why he won't: The playoff format's fickle nature also has a way of humbling heavyweight drivers, even those with four Championship 4 appearances in the last five years.
Team: Stewart-Haas Racing No. 4 Ford
Points: 2,028
2019 wins: 3
Why he'll win the championship: In the final seven races of the regular season, Harvick & Co. have finished strong with three wins, two poles and six top 10s in that stretch. The No. 4 team has a way of keeping momentum rolling with some friendly tracks ahead.
Why he won't: The playoff format's fickle nature also has a way of humbling heavyweight drivers, even those with four Championship 4 appearances in the last five years.
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5. JOEY LOGANO
Team: Team Penske No. 22 Ford
Points: 2,028
2019 wins: 2
Why he'll win the championship: Winning the title last season takes a measure of pressure off the No. 22 bunch, which remains one of the sport's elites.
Why he won't: A repeat champion hasn't happened since Jimmie Johnson's five-in-a-row run from 2006-10. And Logano's runner-up finish in the Indianapolis Motor Speedway regular-season finale stemmed an eight-race drought without a top-five result.
Team: Team Penske No. 22 Ford
Points: 2,028
2019 wins: 2
Why he'll win the championship: Winning the title last season takes a measure of pressure off the No. 22 bunch, which remains one of the sport's elites.
Why he won't: A repeat champion hasn't happened since Jimmie Johnson's five-in-a-row run from 2006-10. And Logano's runner-up finish in the Indianapolis Motor Speedway regular-season finale stemmed an eight-race drought without a top-five result.
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6. BRAD KESELOWSKI
Team: Team Penske No. 2 Ford
Points: 2,024
2019 wins: 3
Why he'll win the championship: Running up front has been a Keselowski trardemark in 2019, with multiple laps led in 17 of the 26 races thus far.
Why he won't: Keselowski hasn't been a regular qualifier for the Championship 4 field, with just one appearance (2017) in the current format.
Team: Team Penske No. 2 Ford
Points: 2,024
2019 wins: 3
Why he'll win the championship: Running up front has been a Keselowski trardemark in 2019, with multiple laps led in 17 of the 26 races thus far.
Why he won't: Keselowski hasn't been a regular qualifier for the Championship 4 field, with just one appearance (2017) in the current format.
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7. CHASE ELLIOTT
Team: Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet
Points: 2,018
2019 wins: 2
Why he'll win the championship: Elliott has won at three postseason tracks within the last two years, and he enters the 10-race closing stretch with four top 10s in the last five races.
Why he won't: The No. 9 team seems to have emerged from its June-July swoon, but the existence of such a dismal seven-race stretch on its record this season is troubling.
Team: Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet
Points: 2,018
2019 wins: 2
Why he'll win the championship: Elliott has won at three postseason tracks within the last two years, and he enters the 10-race closing stretch with four top 10s in the last five races.
Why he won't: The No. 9 team seems to have emerged from its June-July swoon, but the existence of such a dismal seven-race stretch on its record this season is troubling.
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8. KURT BUSCH
Team: Chip Ganassi Racing No. 1 Chevrolet
Points: 2,011
2019 wins: 1
Why he'll win the championship: The 41-year-old veteran has been rejuvenated by his performance this year, showing he's hardly content to play out the string this late in his career.
Why he won't: The No. 1 team has been running at the finish in every race this year, but the boom-or-bust results don't forecast a deep playoff march on the basis of consistency.
Team: Chip Ganassi Racing No. 1 Chevrolet
Points: 2,011
2019 wins: 1
Why he'll win the championship: The 41-year-old veteran has been rejuvenated by his performance this year, showing he's hardly content to play out the string this late in his career.
Why he won't: The No. 1 team has been running at the finish in every race this year, but the boom-or-bust results don't forecast a deep playoff march on the basis of consistency.
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9. ALEX BOWMAN
Team: Hendrick Motorsports No. 88 Chevrolet
Points: 2,005
2019 wins: 1
Why he'll win the championship: Finally scratching the win column this season removes one element of pressure for the easy-going Bowman.
Why he won't: Bowman hasn't logged a top-five finish since his late-June win at Chicagoland Speedway, a haunting bellwether ahead of the postseason.
Team: Hendrick Motorsports No. 88 Chevrolet
Points: 2,005
2019 wins: 1
Why he'll win the championship: Finally scratching the win column this season removes one element of pressure for the easy-going Bowman.
Why he won't: Bowman hasn't logged a top-five finish since his late-June win at Chicagoland Speedway, a haunting bellwether ahead of the postseason.
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10. ERIK JONES
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota
Points: 2,005
2019 wins: 1
Why he'll win the championship: A convincing Darlington Raceway victory in the next-to-last race of the regular season provided a needed confidence boost. So does sealing a contract extension that ends any uncertainty about his 2020 fate.
Why he won't: Zero stage wins in the regular season means Jones will carry just his five playoff-point premium as a safety net against elimination.
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota
Points: 2,005
2019 wins: 1
Why he'll win the championship: A convincing Darlington Raceway victory in the next-to-last race of the regular season provided a needed confidence boost. So does sealing a contract extension that ends any uncertainty about his 2020 fate.
Why he won't: Zero stage wins in the regular season means Jones will carry just his five playoff-point premium as a safety net against elimination.
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11. KYLE LARSON
Team: Chip Ganassi Racing No. 42 Chevrolet
Points: 2,005
2019 wins: 0
Why he'll win the championship: Except for his wreck in the Indy finale, Larson's closing flourish in the regular season helped breathe new life into the No. 42 crew.
Why he won't: Larson's six DNFs -- all crash related -- are tied for the most among the 16 playoff contenders. Only Clint Bowyer equals that dreaded distinction among title-eligible drivers.
Team: Chip Ganassi Racing No. 42 Chevrolet
Points: 2,005
2019 wins: 0
Why he'll win the championship: Except for his wreck in the Indy finale, Larson's closing flourish in the regular season helped breathe new life into the No. 42 crew.
Why he won't: Larson's six DNFs -- all crash related -- are tied for the most among the 16 playoff contenders. Only Clint Bowyer equals that dreaded distinction among title-eligible drivers.
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12. RYAN BLANEY
Team: Team Penske No. 12 Ford
Points: 2,004
2019 wins: 0
Why he'll win the championship: Modest consistency should help him survive, but if Team Penske turns up the wick like it did in Logano's title push last season, Blaney could stand to benefit.
Why he won't: Contending for wins hasn't happened with regularity this season, a glaring issue the No. 12 team needs to quickly remedy.
Team: Team Penske No. 12 Ford
Points: 2,004
2019 wins: 0
Why he'll win the championship: Modest consistency should help him survive, but if Team Penske turns up the wick like it did in Logano's title push last season, Blaney could stand to benefit.
Why he won't: Contending for wins hasn't happened with regularity this season, a glaring issue the No. 12 team needs to quickly remedy.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
13. WILLIAM BYRON
Team: Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet
Points: 2,001
2019 wins: 0
Why he'll win the championship: Improvement has been a steady theme for the 21-year-old, who has a time-tested crew chief with title-winning credentials in Chad Knaus to help the cause.
Why he won't: First-time playoff drivers are likely to find rough going, and Byron has led just one lap in the last nine races.
Team: Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet
Points: 2,001
2019 wins: 0
Why he'll win the championship: Improvement has been a steady theme for the 21-year-old, who has a time-tested crew chief with title-winning credentials in Chad Knaus to help the cause.
Why he won't: First-time playoff drivers are likely to find rough going, and Byron has led just one lap in the last nine races.
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14. ARIC ALMIROLA
Team: Stewart-Haas Racing No. 10 Ford
Points: 2,001
2019 wins: 0
Why he'll win the championship: A deep run into the playoffs last year showed it can be done, and Almirola has a veteran's poise that should help with the experience intangible.
Why he won't: Just one top-five finish in 26 regular-season races doesn't offer much in the way of playoffs promise.
Team: Stewart-Haas Racing No. 10 Ford
Points: 2,001
2019 wins: 0
Why he'll win the championship: A deep run into the playoffs last year showed it can be done, and Almirola has a veteran's poise that should help with the experience intangible.
Why he won't: Just one top-five finish in 26 regular-season races doesn't offer much in the way of playoffs promise.
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15. CLINT BOWYER
Team: Stewart-Haas Racing No. 14 Ford
Points: 2,000
2019 wins: 0
Why he'll win the championship: A modest string of three straight single-digit finishes helped Bowyer snag one of the last two playoffs spots, a signal for what the No. 14 team can accomplish when pressed into difficult spots.
Why he won't: The rally and recaptured mojo may be too little, too late after a discouraging summer slide that pushed Bowyer to the playoff brink.
Team: Stewart-Haas Racing No. 14 Ford
Points: 2,000
2019 wins: 0
Why he'll win the championship: A modest string of three straight single-digit finishes helped Bowyer snag one of the last two playoffs spots, a signal for what the No. 14 team can accomplish when pressed into difficult spots.
Why he won't: The rally and recaptured mojo may be too little, too late after a discouraging summer slide that pushed Bowyer to the playoff brink.
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16. RYAN NEWMAN
Team: Roush Fenway Racing No. 6 Ford
Points: 2,000
2019 wins: 0
Why he'll win the championship: Remember Newman's underdog surge to the Championship 4 in 2014, the first season of the elimination format? This year's path has similar markings, including a no-DNF regular season and a second-place ranking in laps completed (only Logano has more).
Why he won't: Cinderella stories remain rare, and surviving on a diet of occasional top 10s only sustains a team for so long. Newman has led just 16 laps all season, by far the fewest in the postseason field.
Team: Roush Fenway Racing No. 6 Ford
Points: 2,000
2019 wins: 0
Why he'll win the championship: Remember Newman's underdog surge to the Championship 4 in 2014, the first season of the elimination format? This year's path has similar markings, including a no-DNF regular season and a second-place ranking in laps completed (only Logano has more).
Why he won't: Cinderella stories remain rare, and surviving on a diet of occasional top 10s only sustains a team for so long. Newman has led just 16 laps all season, by far the fewest in the postseason field.