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Fantasy Fastlane: Staying away from Kyle Busch at Dover?
By RJ Kraft | Published: October 4, 2019 15
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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NASCAR Digital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top playoff and non-playoff plays as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from Westgate Superbook.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Martin Truex Jr. (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 4-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex got his first Cup win at Dover and has three there in his Cup career. His stretch of five top-four finishes in his last six starts at the Delaware track includes two wins and has yielded the most points in that span. Factor in his Round of 16 results and this is the driver to build around.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 4-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex got his first Cup win at Dover and has three there in his Cup career. His stretch of five top-four finishes in his last six starts at the Delaware track includes two wins and has yielded the most points in that span. Factor in his Round of 16 results and this is the driver to build around.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Kevin Harvick (P) | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has won two of the past eight races at Dover after not winning in his first 29 Cup starts at the "Monster Mile." He has finished no lower than sixth in the last three races there with a series-best average of 52.7 points per race while leading 40.5 percent of the laps run in that span.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has won two of the past eight races at Dover after not winning in his first 29 Cup starts at the "Monster Mile." He has finished no lower than sixth in the last three races there with a series-best average of 52.7 points per race while leading 40.5 percent of the laps run in that span.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Chase Elliott (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's winner at the Roval has a strong record at Dover as well. He has an average finish of 4.4 with one win and six top-five finishes in seven starts. His average of 42.3 points in the past three races here is the second-best among Sunday's field. He’s well worth a roster spot this weekend at Dover.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's winner at the Roval has a strong record at Dover as well. He has an average finish of 4.4 with one win and six top-five finishes in seven starts. His average of 42.3 points in the past three races here is the second-best among Sunday's field. He’s well worth a roster spot this weekend at Dover.
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Streeter Lecka | Getty Images
Kyle Larson (P) | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Dover is Larson's best track among those in the playoffs with five top fives, eight top 10s and an average finish of 8.0 in 11 starts. A key for Larson will be qualifying well -- he has four of his five top fives from starting inside the top five. I like this play if you want to do something different than the 19, 4 or 9.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Dover is Larson's best track among those in the playoffs with five top fives, eight top 10s and an average finish of 8.0 in 11 starts. A key for Larson will be qualifying well -- he has four of his five top fives from starting inside the top five. I like this play if you want to do something different than the 19, 4 or 9.
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Joey Logano (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano's overall body of work at Dover isn't too great, but he does have two straight top-seven finishes and the third-most points over that span. On the 1-mile range venues this year, he has an average of 38.3 points. The reigning champ doesn't top my playoff play board, but I like him better than most of the choices.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano's overall body of work at Dover isn't too great, but he does have two straight top-seven finishes and the third-most points over that span. On the 1-mile range venues this year, he has an average of 38.3 points. The reigning champ doesn't top my playoff play board, but I like him better than most of the choices.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Brad Keselowski (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski's lone Dover win came in the 2012 playoff race, and he has a knack for racking up points here -- as evidenced by his fourth-most points in the past three races at the 1-mile track. He also enters this race on a quiet roll with five top fives in his past six races in 2019 -- with three 40-plus point races.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski's lone Dover win came in the 2012 playoff race, and he has a knack for racking up points here -- as evidenced by his fourth-most points in the past three races at the 1-mile track. He also enters this race on a quiet roll with five top fives in his past six races in 2019 -- with three 40-plus point races.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Erik Jones | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones' last four races have seen point totals of: 1, 2, 1 and 1. Those results show the risk in the play but there is the potential for a great reward. His last two starts at Dover: Two-top six finishes and an average of 33.5 points.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones' last four races have seen point totals of: 1, 2, 1 and 1. Those results show the risk in the play but there is the potential for a great reward. His last two starts at Dover: Two-top six finishes and an average of 33.5 points.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Jimmie Johnson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: For his career, there's no one better at Dover with 11 wins. Under Cliff Daniels, there has been an uptick with three straight top-11 finishes, an average of 30.7 points in those races and five straight qualifying spots in the top 10.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: For his career, there's no one better at Dover with 11 wins. Under Cliff Daniels, there has been an uptick with three straight top-11 finishes, an average of 30.7 points in those races and five straight qualifying spots in the top 10.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch called his Round of 16 elimination "a friggin' disaster." This drops him into the non-playoff group. The Dover body of work isn't great, but he has two top-five finishes and the sixth-most points in the past three races.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch called his Round of 16 elimination "a friggin' disaster." This drops him into the non-playoff group. The Dover body of work isn't great, but he has two top-five finishes and the sixth-most points in the past three races.
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Daniel Suarez | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: Dover is Suarez's best track with an average finish of 7.6, four top 10s and has never finished worse than 11th. The one cause for concern: No top 10s on 1-mile tracks this year; he had eight in his first two seasons.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: Dover is Suarez's best track with an average finish of 7.6, four top 10s and has never finished worse than 11th. The one cause for concern: No top 10s on 1-mile tracks this year; he had eight in his first two seasons.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Kyle Busch (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 4-1
Fastlane forecast: There's no denying his talent but something has been off with this driver for the past month. On top of that, Dover is far from his best track. While he won this race in 2017, he has four finishes of 30th or worse in the past 11 races there.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 4-1
Fastlane forecast: There's no denying his talent but something has been off with this driver for the past month. On top of that, Dover is far from his best track. While he won this race in 2017, he has four finishes of 30th or worse in the past 11 races there.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Alex Bowman (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman had a great drive to advance to the Round of 12, which opens at a track he finished second at in May. That result is his lone top five/10 at Dover and it's hard to go against the other playoff options.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman had a great drive to advance to the Round of 12, which opens at a track he finished second at in May. That result is his lone top five/10 at Dover and it's hard to go against the other playoff options.
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STAY AWAY FROM: Ryan Newman | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 200-1
Fastlane forecast: Newman may have three Dover wins but those were in his first six starts at the "Monster Mile" -- he has made 29 there since his last win. The bigger red flag: One top 10 in his last nine starts at the 1-mile track.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 200-1
Fastlane forecast: Newman may have three Dover wins but those were in his first six starts at the "Monster Mile" -- he has made 29 there since his last win. The bigger red flag: One top 10 in his last nine starts at the 1-mile track.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott, Erik Jones, Jimmie Johnson; Garage: Kevin Harvick. Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece on Saturday for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN.
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN.