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October 3, 2019

Analysis: Elliott, Bowman looking strong for Round of 12


Hendrick Motorsports is sitting pretty heading into the Round of 12.

Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman are the sole drivers in the NASCAR Playoffs to place not only in the top 10, but the top five, at the next three tracks – Dover International Speedway, Talladega Superspeedway and Kansas Speedway – earlier this season. Elliott actually won at Talladega, was fourth at Kansas and came in fifth at Dover. Bowman ended up second at each.

RELATED: Round of 12 reset | Full Dover schedule

Bowman’s claim to fame is the second-place average this year alone at the three venues. It’s the best mark among his postseason competition. The next closest is Elliott with his 3.3 average. Third drops out of the top five with Brad Keselowski averaging an 8.7 finish.

Reverse the order of impressiveness among the teammates: Elliott earned the most points out of the three events earlier this season with 156. Bowman was next on the list with 143. Again, Keselowski comes third with 108.

OK, but what about an overall look?

Elliott’s career average finishes at Dover and Talladega dominate the playoff-field charts. Through seven starts, he has managed to average a 4.4 finish at Dover and a 14.0 finish at Talladega. His 12.9 average finish at Kansas also looks good but isn’t the top mark when compared to others.

Bowman doesn’t have the nicest record at any of those tracks, averaging a 22.1 finish in eight Kansas starts, a 24.9 average finish in eight Talladega starts and a 25.6 average finish in seven Dover starts. But he also had a less straightforward career than Elliott, who has been with Hendrick Motorsports since joining the Cup Series full time in 2016.

From 2014-15, the first two years of his career, Bowman raced for BK Racing (2014) and Tommy Baldwin Racing (2015). He did 10 races part time for Hendrick Motorsports in 2016 (filling in while Dale Earnhardt Jr. was sidelined with a concussion), was absent from Cup Series competition in 2017 and then started competing full time with Hendrick in 2018.

DRIVERS’ PAGES: Bowman | Elliott

Pre-Hendrick Motorsports seasons saw average finishes worse than 30 – 32.6 in 2014 and 31.6 in 2015. Post-Hendrick numbers were much improved – average finish of 19.7 in 2016 and 17.0 in 2018. He’s at an average finish of 13.8 this year.

So, safe to say, Bowman’s career averages at Dover, Talladega and Kansas aren’t representative of what he’s capable of now.

All right, what about last season’s Round of 12?

The 2018 Round of 12 featured the same tracks 2019 will. Elliott won the opener at Dover and the eliminator at Kansas. Bowman was 28th and ninth, respectively, in those events. Elliott and Bowman then finished 31st and 33rd in order at Talladega.

Elliott’s wins automatically advanced him to the Round of 8, while Bowman was booted from the playoffs after finishing the three races 12th in the standings – 69 points below the cutline – after the Kansas elimination event and before the points reset.

One of the two Hendrick Motorsports drivers survived the Round of 12 last year. This season’s fight begins Sunday with the Drydene 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN/NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Both look like they should be fine, but only time will tell.

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