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Fantasy Fastlane: Roll with Penske or Hendrick at Talladega?
By RJ Kraft | Published: October 11, 2019 16
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Joey Logano, Chase Elliott, Aric Almirola, Kurt Busch; Garage: Brad Keselowski. Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece on Saturday for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 2 p.m. ET on NBC.
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 2 p.m. ET on NBC.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Michael McDowell | View stats
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: McDowell's superspeedway success has occurred at Daytona not Talladega. In 17 starts here, he has never finished in the top 10. His last five starts have resulted in five finishes of 30th-or-worse and two last-place finishes.
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: McDowell's superspeedway success has occurred at Daytona not Talladega. In 17 starts here, he has never finished in the top 10. His last five starts have resulted in five finishes of 30th-or-worse and two last-place finishes.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Erik Jones | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones wrecked out of his first three Talladega starts but he scored an eighth-place finish here last year. He’s been snake-bitten with four finishes of 36th-or-worse and seven finishes outside the top 14 in the past eight races of 2019.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones wrecked out of his first three Talladega starts but he scored an eighth-place finish here last year. He’s been snake-bitten with four finishes of 36th-or-worse and seven finishes outside the top 14 in the past eight races of 2019.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Kyle Larson (P) | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: With a win at Dover to lock himself into the Round of 8, Larson is set to look past Talladega. He has just two top 10s at the Alabama track and his overall superspeedway record sports just five top 10s in 23 starts.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: With a win at Dover to lock himself into the Round of 8, Larson is set to look past Talladega. He has just two top 10s at the Alabama track and his overall superspeedway record sports just five top 10s in 23 starts.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Martin Truex Jr. (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Superspeedway racing and Truex do not mix. In 58 starts at Daytona and Talladega, Truex has four top fives and 12 top 10s. Those numbers are not in your favor. At plus-63 above the cutline, it's hard to see Truex being super aggressive.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Superspeedway racing and Truex do not mix. In 58 starts at Daytona and Talladega, Truex has four top fives and 12 top 10s. Those numbers are not in your favor. At plus-63 above the cutline, it's hard to see Truex being super aggressive.
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Streeter Lecka | Getty Images
Ryan Newman | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Newman's M.O. of late in these races is to ride around the back for the first two stages. At the end of the race, he finds himself in the top 10 -- he has three top 10s in his last four Talladega starts and an average of 30 points per superspeedway race this year.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Newman's M.O. of late in these races is to ride around the back for the first two stages. At the end of the race, he finds himself in the top 10 -- he has three top 10s in his last four Talladega starts and an average of 30 points per superspeedway race this year.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Ty Dillon | View stats
Germain Racing, No. 13 Chevrolet
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: In five starts at Talladega, Dillon has never finished worse than 17th and somehow at a track known for "The Big One" he has completed every lap during that span. The point total might not be eye popping -- an average of 25 -- but he keeps on running and there's value with that.
Germain Racing, No. 13 Chevrolet
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: In five starts at Talladega, Dillon has never finished worse than 17th and somehow at a track known for "The Big One" he has completed every lap during that span. The point total might not be eye popping -- an average of 25 -- but he keeps on running and there's value with that.
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Streeter Lecka | Getty Images
Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch may not have a win at Talladega but he does have the most top fives (eight) and top 10s (20) among Sunday's field. In his past 10 starts there, the 2004 champion has seven top 10s and one finish outside the top 15. That consistency is hard to find at this track.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch may not have a win at Talladega but he does have the most top fives (eight) and top 10s (20) among Sunday's field. In his past 10 starts there, the 2004 champion has seven top 10s and one finish outside the top 15. That consistency is hard to find at this track.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Aric Almirola | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Almirola is the defending race winner and comes into Talladega with six straight top-nine finishes. He has earned the second-most points in the past four races here -- the most among the non-playoff plays with an average of 36 points.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Almirola is the defending race winner and comes into Talladega with six straight top-nine finishes. He has earned the second-most points in the past four races here -- the most among the non-playoff plays with an average of 36 points.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Stenhouse has the best average finish (11.8) at Talladega among drivers with more than one start. In his last six starts there, he has one win and four top-five finishes. He's always in the mix at these races with the specter that he could be the trigger of "The Big One."
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Stenhouse has the best average finish (11.8) at Talladega among drivers with more than one start. In his last six starts there, he has one win and four top-five finishes. He's always in the mix at these races with the specter that he could be the trigger of "The Big One."
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
Alex Bowman (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman finished second at Talladega in the spring and was super aggressive on the stage point front in that race. He's on a surge in the playoffs with three top-six finishes and three races of more than 30 points in the past four races. He's an intriguing garage play here.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman finished second at Talladega in the spring and was super aggressive on the stage point front in that race. He's on a surge in the playoffs with three top-six finishes and three races of more than 30 points in the past four races. He's an intriguing garage play here.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
Denny Hamlin (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has one victory at Talladega from 2014 and he also won this year's Daytona 500. His numbers of late at 'Dega are better in the playoff race than the spring -- he has three straight top-six finishes in the fall race. His position at plus-48 to the cutline could lead him to be more conservative.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has one victory at Talladega from 2014 and he also won this year's Daytona 500. His numbers of late at 'Dega are better in the playoff race than the spring -- he has three straight top-six finishes in the fall race. His position at plus-48 to the cutline could lead him to be more conservative.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Chase Elliott (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott is the most recent winner at Talladega scoring a victory in the spring race. In the past three races at 'Dega, Elliott has the fourth-most points -- second-most among playoff drivers. The most popular driver's setback at Dover leaves him minus-7 to the cutline so expect him to be plenty aggressive in the stages.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott is the most recent winner at Talladega scoring a victory in the spring race. In the past three races at 'Dega, Elliott has the fourth-most points -- second-most among playoff drivers. The most popular driver's setback at Dover leaves him minus-7 to the cutline so expect him to be plenty aggressive in the stages.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Brad Keselowski (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has five wins at Talladega -- the most among drivers in Sunday's field. Two of those victories have come in the last five playoff races at the superspeedway. While he has not finished in the top 10 in his past three starts here, the 2012 champion is one of the best superspeedway racers.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has five wins at Talladega -- the most among drivers in Sunday's field. Two of those victories have come in the last five playoff races at the superspeedway. While he has not finished in the top 10 in his past three starts here, the 2012 champion is one of the best superspeedway racers.
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Jeff Zelevansky | Getty Images
Joey Logano (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano has three victories at Talladega including two in the last four playoff races here. He also has four straight top-five finishes at the 2.66-mile superspeedway with a series-best 43.8 points per race in that stretch. And as the first driver out on the provisional cutline, expect the aggression to be amped up.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano has three victories at Talladega including two in the last four playoff races here. He also has four straight top-five finishes at the 2.66-mile superspeedway with a series-best 43.8 points per race in that stretch. And as the first driver out on the provisional cutline, expect the aggression to be amped up.
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top playoff and non-playoff plays as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from Westgate Superbook.
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