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The path to the Championship 4: The case for, against playoff hopefuls for Homestead
By Zack Albert | Published: October 24, 2019 8
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Jonathan Ferrey | Getty Images
1. KYLE BUSCH
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing No. 18 Toyota
Points: 4,046
2019 wins: 4
Why he'll reach the Championship 4: That stockpile of playoff points sure comes in handy, as does the favorable three-race stretch ahead. Busch's run of eight straight top fives at Martinsville suggests he'll hold serve with a quick start to the Round of 8.
Why he won't: An odd trend of inconsistency has gripped the No. 18 team in the playoffs. Busch hasn't patched consecutive top 10s together in the postseason, which doesn't stir confidence.
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing No. 18 Toyota
Points: 4,046
2019 wins: 4
Why he'll reach the Championship 4: That stockpile of playoff points sure comes in handy, as does the favorable three-race stretch ahead. Busch's run of eight straight top fives at Martinsville suggests he'll hold serve with a quick start to the Round of 8.
Why he won't: An odd trend of inconsistency has gripped the No. 18 team in the playoffs. Busch hasn't patched consecutive top 10s together in the postseason, which doesn't stir confidence.
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2. MARTIN TRUEX JR.
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 Toyota
Points: 4,042
2019 wins: 6
Why he'll reach the Championship 4: Truex has won two of the last three short-track races, and his Martinsville record forecasts a solid Round of 8 opener. A Talladega wreck notwithstanding, the No. 19 has been about as steady as they come in the playoffs.
Why he won't: Truex should be able to point his way to Homestead, but if he finds himself in a must-win, he'd need to snap career 0-for streaks at any of the three Round of 8 tracks.
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 Toyota
Points: 4,042
2019 wins: 6
Why he'll reach the Championship 4: Truex has won two of the last three short-track races, and his Martinsville record forecasts a solid Round of 8 opener. A Talladega wreck notwithstanding, the No. 19 has been about as steady as they come in the playoffs.
Why he won't: Truex should be able to point his way to Homestead, but if he finds himself in a must-win, he'd need to snap career 0-for streaks at any of the three Round of 8 tracks.
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3. DENNY HAMLIN
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota
Points: 4,037
2019 wins: 5
Why he'll reach the Championship 4: Momentum is solidly on the side of the No. 11 team, which rolls into Martinsville with three straight top-five results. He has multiple wins at Martinsville (five), Texas (three) and a lone victory at Phoenix to set him up nicely for the Round of 8.
Why he won't: Only a lull on par with his May-June swoon earlier this season (one top five in a nine-race stretch) could derail Hamlin. The other less tangible factor: Star-crossed flukes and luck have upended him in previous title bids. Is it really meant to happen this time?
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota
Points: 4,037
2019 wins: 5
Why he'll reach the Championship 4: Momentum is solidly on the side of the No. 11 team, which rolls into Martinsville with three straight top-five results. He has multiple wins at Martinsville (five), Texas (three) and a lone victory at Phoenix to set him up nicely for the Round of 8.
Why he won't: Only a lull on par with his May-June swoon earlier this season (one top five in a nine-race stretch) could derail Hamlin. The other less tangible factor: Star-crossed flukes and luck have upended him in previous title bids. Is it really meant to happen this time?
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4. JOEY LOGANO
Team: Team Penske No. 22 Ford
Points: 4,030
2019 wins: 2
Why he'll reach the Championship 4: This campaign is reminiscent of Logano's 2018 title march, where he didn't have the dominant car all season, but willed his way into the mix with an aggressive Martinsville triumph.
Why he won't: The No. 22 team is in regrouping mode after an erratic Round of 12, one that Logano said needed cleaning up post-Kansas. It's late in the game to fret about execution, but more troubling: Logano has just one top-five result in the last 15 races.
Team: Team Penske No. 22 Ford
Points: 4,030
2019 wins: 2
Why he'll reach the Championship 4: This campaign is reminiscent of Logano's 2018 title march, where he didn't have the dominant car all season, but willed his way into the mix with an aggressive Martinsville triumph.
Why he won't: The No. 22 team is in regrouping mode after an erratic Round of 12, one that Logano said needed cleaning up post-Kansas. It's late in the game to fret about execution, but more troubling: Logano has just one top-five result in the last 15 races.
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5. KEVIN HARVICK
Team: Stewart-Haas Racing No. 4 Ford
Points: 4,028
2019 wins: 3
Why he'll reach the Championship 4: The reliable Harvick has wins at all three Round of 8 tracks and possesses a crucial failsafe at Phoenix, where he's won nine times in his career. He's also won the Texas playoff race two years running.
Why he won't: His slight deficit in the standings to his Joe Gibbs Racing rivals makes the margin of error even tighter for the SHR No. 4 group. Harvick hasn't led in his last three races and returning to the front will be imperative.
Team: Stewart-Haas Racing No. 4 Ford
Points: 4,028
2019 wins: 3
Why he'll reach the Championship 4: The reliable Harvick has wins at all three Round of 8 tracks and possesses a crucial failsafe at Phoenix, where he's won nine times in his career. He's also won the Texas playoff race two years running.
Why he won't: His slight deficit in the standings to his Joe Gibbs Racing rivals makes the margin of error even tighter for the SHR No. 4 group. Harvick hasn't led in his last three races and returning to the front will be imperative.
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6. CHASE ELLIOTT
Team: Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet
Points: 4,024
2019 wins: 3
Why he'll reach the Championship 4: A momentous late-race rally at Kansas helped Elliott advance, delivering a clutch performance that should provide a boost for the Round of 8. Starting at Martinsville helps, too; he was second at the .526-mile track in March.
Why he won't: A stagnant summer exposed Elliott's vulnerability, planting the seed that the No. 9 team may be at a disadvantage in its all-around body of work.
Team: Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet
Points: 4,024
2019 wins: 3
Why he'll reach the Championship 4: A momentous late-race rally at Kansas helped Elliott advance, delivering a clutch performance that should provide a boost for the Round of 8. Starting at Martinsville helps, too; he was second at the .526-mile track in March.
Why he won't: A stagnant summer exposed Elliott's vulnerability, planting the seed that the No. 9 team may be at a disadvantage in its all-around body of work.
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7. KYLE LARSON
Team: Chip Ganassi Racing No. 42 Chevrolet
Points: 4,011
2019 wins: 1
Why he'll reach the Championship 4: A Dover victory in the Round of 12 opener allowed the team to exhale and set its focus on the three races ahead.
Why he won't: The next three tracks are among Larson's biggest hurdles, especially Martinsville, where he has just one top-10 finish in 11 career starts.
Team: Chip Ganassi Racing No. 42 Chevrolet
Points: 4,011
2019 wins: 1
Why he'll reach the Championship 4: A Dover victory in the Round of 12 opener allowed the team to exhale and set its focus on the three races ahead.
Why he won't: The next three tracks are among Larson's biggest hurdles, especially Martinsville, where he has just one top-10 finish in 11 career starts.
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8. RYAN BLANEY
Team: Team Penske No. 12 Ford
Points: 4,009
2019 wins: 1
Why he'll reach the Championship 4: Blaney ranks at the bottom of the re-seeded playoff field, but Team Penske's extra playoffs emphasis tends to lift its drivers as the season draws to a close. The organization has been present in the last three championship fights in South Florida.
Why he won't: The points gap may indeed prove to be too great in one of the most competitive eight-driver groups in NASCAR's elimination era. The three remaining tracks before Homestead also pose a challenge.
Team: Team Penske No. 12 Ford
Points: 4,009
2019 wins: 1
Why he'll reach the Championship 4: Blaney ranks at the bottom of the re-seeded playoff field, but Team Penske's extra playoffs emphasis tends to lift its drivers as the season draws to a close. The organization has been present in the last three championship fights in South Florida.
Why he won't: The points gap may indeed prove to be too great in one of the most competitive eight-driver groups in NASCAR's elimination era. The three remaining tracks before Homestead also pose a challenge.