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Fantasy Fastlane: Three desert dominators to roster at Phoenix?
By RJ Kraft | Published: November 8, 2019 15
Jonathan Ferrey | Getty Images
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NASCAR Digital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top playoff and non-playoff plays as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from Westgate Sports Book.
PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today
PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Kyle Busch (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 3-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has won the last two races at ISM Raceway. He has an astounding 2.8 average finish and an average of 50 points per race in the past five races there -- both tops in the series in that span. He's in the midst of a run of eight straight top-seven finishes with seven top-four finishes -- he's a MUST this weekend.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 3-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has won the last two races at ISM Raceway. He has an astounding 2.8 average finish and an average of 50 points per race in the past five races there -- both tops in the series in that span. He's in the midst of a run of eight straight top-seven finishes with seven top-four finishes -- he's a MUST this weekend.
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Jonathan Ferrey | Getty Images
Kevin Harvick (P) | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Much has been made of Harvick's desert dominance -- a series-best nine wins and a 9.3 average finish. He has not finished outside the top 10 in the past 12 races there, and that includes six wins and 10 top fives. This is his best track, and he's absolutely worth the play.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Much has been made of Harvick's desert dominance -- a series-best nine wins and a 9.3 average finish. He has not finished outside the top 10 in the past 12 races there, and that includes six wins and 10 top fives. This is his best track, and he's absolutely worth the play.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Denny Hamlin (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 3-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin only has one win at Phoenix, but he has a favorable history here as he sits in close to a must-win spot. He has six top-eight finishes there in his last eight starts and one of his finishes outside the top eight saw him lead 193 laps. A fifth-place finish in the spring bodes well for this race as well.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 3-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin only has one win at Phoenix, but he has a favorable history here as he sits in close to a must-win spot. He has six top-eight finishes there in his last eight starts and one of his finishes outside the top eight saw him lead 193 laps. A fifth-place finish in the spring bodes well for this race as well.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Kyle Larson (P) | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Larson has three top-six finishes and three races of more than 35 points in his last five at Phoenix. His 34.4 points per race are fourth best among the field over that stretch. While Phoenix and Dover International Speedway aren't the same animals, he did win the last 1-mile track race and will certainly be a factor Sunday.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Larson has three top-six finishes and three races of more than 35 points in his last five at Phoenix. His 34.4 points per race are fourth best among the field over that stretch. While Phoenix and Dover International Speedway aren't the same animals, he did win the last 1-mile track race and will certainly be a factor Sunday.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Chase Elliott (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott's Round of 8 has been tough. He has two stage wins at Phoenix and also two top-three finishes in the last four races there. He was leading this race in the final stage last year before a pit-road penalty derailed him. The risk here is he HAS to win, so he may take more chances than you'd like.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott's Round of 8 has been tough. He has two stage wins at Phoenix and also two top-three finishes in the last four races there. He was leading this race in the final stage last year before a pit-road penalty derailed him. The risk here is he HAS to win, so he may take more chances than you'd like.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Aric Almirola | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Almirola has the third-best average finish (6.0) in the past four Phoenix races -- only behind Busch and Harvick. He's coming off his best finish of the season and seems primed to continue to build off of that.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Almirola has the third-best average finish (6.0) in the past four Phoenix races -- only behind Busch and Harvick. He's coming off his best finish of the season and seems primed to continue to build off of that.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Erik Jones | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones has the third-most points among non-playoff plays at Phoenix over the past five races. He has cooled there lately with two straight finishes outside the top 10. In his last three 1-mile range races, he has averaged 35 points.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones has the third-most points among non-playoff plays at Phoenix over the past five races. He has cooled there lately with two straight finishes outside the top 10. In his last three 1-mile range races, he has averaged 35 points.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has the fourth-most points among non-playoff drivers in the past five Phoenix races. While he has not won here, he did finish as the runner-up last year -- the first on the new layout of the 1-mile track.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has the fourth-most points among non-playoff drivers in the past five Phoenix races. While he has not won here, he did finish as the runner-up last year -- the first on the new layout of the 1-mile track.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron has two top-12 finishes in three Phoenix starts. He has scored at least 30 points in three of four races this year on 1-mile range tracks. Of late, he has a pattern of two good points races, one blah and Texas was blah for him.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron has two top-12 finishes in three Phoenix starts. He has scored at least 30 points in three of four races this year on 1-mile range tracks. Of late, he has a pattern of two good points races, one blah and Texas was blah for him.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Ryan Newman | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 200-1
Fastlane forecast: Newman has a win and 10 top-12 finishes in his past 12 starts at Phoenix. He also has the second-most points among non-playoff drivers in the past five races here. The veteran has a knack for grinding out finishes.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 200-1
Fastlane forecast: Newman has a win and 10 top-12 finishes in his past 12 starts at Phoenix. He also has the second-most points among non-playoff drivers in the past five races here. The veteran has a knack for grinding out finishes.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Joey Logano (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Since Logano’s Phoenix win in 2016, he has one top-10 finish in five starts there with just one race of more than 35 points. In 21 starts at the 1-mile track, he has just four top fives -- from far ideal in a playoff play.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Since Logano’s Phoenix win in 2016, he has one top-10 finish in five starts there with just one race of more than 35 points. In 21 starts at the 1-mile track, he has just four top fives -- from far ideal in a playoff play.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Clint Bowyer | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: In 28 starts at Phoenix, Bowyer has two top fives, and both of those came in his first six starts there. His 18.7 average finish is third worst for the veteran driver on active tracks.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: In 28 starts at Phoenix, Bowyer has two top fives, and both of those came in his first six starts there. His 18.7 average finish is third worst for the veteran driver on active tracks.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: While Bowman led the most laps in the 2016 edition of this race, he has not finished better than 13th in his three Phoenix since. With the exception of Dover, his 1-mile and under results this year have been subpar.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: While Bowman led the most laps in the 2016 edition of this race, he has not finished better than 13th in his three Phoenix since. With the exception of Dover, his 1-mile and under results this year have been subpar.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Aric Almirola, William Byron; Garage: Denny Hamlin. Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece Saturday for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC.