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Five to Watch: Championship 4 cutoff looms over desert battle
By Pat DeCola | Published: November 9, 2019 6
NASCAR Creative Design
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NASCAR Creative Design
One race and 312 dramatic miles stand between the Round of 8 drivers and the four that will remain championship eligible come next weekend. Sunday’s Bluegreen Vacations 500 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC, NBC Sports App, MRN, Sirius XM NASCAR Radio) will set the 2019 Championship 4, and here’s what we’ll be watching for all afternoon long in the desert.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Busch, Logano front row is *chef's kiss*:
Kyle Busch notched his first pole of the 2019 season in its second-to-last race and will line up next to … Joey Logano. The pair of rivals was expected to battle all day long as-is, considering they’re the two drivers currently on the right side of the cutline with the most to lose. Should their back-and-forth get aggressive at all, it could open up the door for a driver below the cutline to sneak in – and potential fireworks on pit road after the race between the 18/22.
“Those guys behind us, we know are going to be awfully hungry as well,” Busch said Saturday. “We just have to see how the race plays out. It puts us in the best possible spot to start off and we’ve got 312 laps to figure it out.”
Kyle Busch notched his first pole of the 2019 season in its second-to-last race and will line up next to … Joey Logano. The pair of rivals was expected to battle all day long as-is, considering they’re the two drivers currently on the right side of the cutline with the most to lose. Should their back-and-forth get aggressive at all, it could open up the door for a driver below the cutline to sneak in – and potential fireworks on pit road after the race between the 18/22.
“Those guys behind us, we know are going to be awfully hungry as well,” Busch said Saturday. “We just have to see how the race plays out. It puts us in the best possible spot to start off and we’ve got 312 laps to figure it out.”
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Will Denny deliver?
Given how consistently great he's been the second half of the season, it's hard to believe that playoff favorite Denny Hamlin tentatively will see his title shot end on Sunday. Currently 20 points below the cutline -- and the unlikeliness of a Busch or Logano major misfortune -- indicates that the Joe Gibbs Racing driver's most probable path to the Championship 4 is with a win. Hamlin's car has been among the fastest out there in terms of short-and-long run speed, so he appears to have the right machine under him -- he just has to deliver.
"No matter what, I will not consider this year any sort of a failure," Hamlin said Friday. "We, as Mark Martin would say, we just didn’t score enough points. We had a great year, we won races, we led more laps than we have in a long time and more top fives than anybody in the series. It’s been a really good year and I’m just not going to let the outcome of this weekend, or last weekend, decide whether it’s a good season or not. I think you have to adjust that. One race, winner take all, or a three-race round – anything can happen, and it did for us.”
Given how consistently great he's been the second half of the season, it's hard to believe that playoff favorite Denny Hamlin tentatively will see his title shot end on Sunday. Currently 20 points below the cutline -- and the unlikeliness of a Busch or Logano major misfortune -- indicates that the Joe Gibbs Racing driver's most probable path to the Championship 4 is with a win. Hamlin's car has been among the fastest out there in terms of short-and-long run speed, so he appears to have the right machine under him -- he just has to deliver.
"No matter what, I will not consider this year any sort of a failure," Hamlin said Friday. "We, as Mark Martin would say, we just didn’t score enough points. We had a great year, we won races, we led more laps than we have in a long time and more top fives than anybody in the series. It’s been a really good year and I’m just not going to let the outcome of this weekend, or last weekend, decide whether it’s a good season or not. I think you have to adjust that. One race, winner take all, or a three-race round – anything can happen, and it did for us.”
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Don't sleep on YRB:
Twenty-three points behind his Team Penske teammate for the final transfer spot, Ryan Blaney is treating Sunday like a must-win situation. Though he's yet to win on an non-road course intermediate-or-shorter track in his Cup Series career, Phoenix is lining up as perhaps his best opportunity to do so. The 25-year-old nearly won here in the spring, leading 94 laps from the pole en route to a P3 and his No. 12 Ford was near the top of the charts in lap averages in second practice.
"We came here trying to be close to where we ended the spring race to try to start a little bit closer to where we think the track is gonna go," Blaney said Saturday. "Every team does that, it’s not just us. Everyone who was good here is still gonna be good here and hopefully we’re still up in the top handful.”
Twenty-three points behind his Team Penske teammate for the final transfer spot, Ryan Blaney is treating Sunday like a must-win situation. Though he's yet to win on an non-road course intermediate-or-shorter track in his Cup Series career, Phoenix is lining up as perhaps his best opportunity to do so. The 25-year-old nearly won here in the spring, leading 94 laps from the pole en route to a P3 and his No. 12 Ford was near the top of the charts in lap averages in second practice.
"We came here trying to be close to where we ended the spring race to try to start a little bit closer to where we think the track is gonna go," Blaney said Saturday. "Every team does that, it’s not just us. Everyone who was good here is still gonna be good here and hopefully we’re still up in the top handful.”
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Jonathan Ferrey | Getty Images
Back against the wall ... again:
As remarkable as it is that Hamlin might get bounced, it's equally surprising that Elliott is still in title contention -- and might actually be able to move on to the Championship 4 despite being 78 points down. The No. 9 driver topped opening practice on Friday and averaged a strong finish of 6.8 through his first five Phoenix races. We saw him get it done with the pressure on at the Roval, so it's not time to close the book on Elliott just yet.
“(My expectations are) about like any other race," Elliott said after qualifying sixth. "We’ll try to have good pit stops, get our car driving the best we can, and hope that it’s good enough to move forward from where we’re at.”
As remarkable as it is that Hamlin might get bounced, it's equally surprising that Elliott is still in title contention -- and might actually be able to move on to the Championship 4 despite being 78 points down. The No. 9 driver topped opening practice on Friday and averaged a strong finish of 6.8 through his first five Phoenix races. We saw him get it done with the pressure on at the Roval, so it's not time to close the book on Elliott just yet.
“(My expectations are) about like any other race," Elliott said after qualifying sixth. "We’ll try to have good pit stops, get our car driving the best we can, and hope that it’s good enough to move forward from where we’re at.”
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
Larson lagging behind contenders:
Not as far down as Elliott but still likely in a must-win scenario, Kyle Larson certainly would've hoped to have a better car under him this weekend. A qualifying position of fifth is promising, but based on lap averages it appears the Chip Ganassi Racing driver's No. 42 Chevrolet is set to fade on the long run. It's not worth ruling out a driver with the talent of Larson -- and his strong Phoenix runs since 2016 -- but he's looking like the least likely of the drivers currently out to land in Victory Lane.
"There’s definitely guys that are faster than I am," Larson said after qualifying Saturday. "I feel like I’m a bit like a fifth to seventh place car after practice. I felt like the 11 (Hamlin) was, by far, the best. But I almost won here in 2017 and I had a third to fifth place car. We just had some restarts there late and lined up in the right position. Anything can happen, so we’ll see. I’m hopeful.”
Not as far down as Elliott but still likely in a must-win scenario, Kyle Larson certainly would've hoped to have a better car under him this weekend. A qualifying position of fifth is promising, but based on lap averages it appears the Chip Ganassi Racing driver's No. 42 Chevrolet is set to fade on the long run. It's not worth ruling out a driver with the talent of Larson -- and his strong Phoenix runs since 2016 -- but he's looking like the least likely of the drivers currently out to land in Victory Lane.
"There’s definitely guys that are faster than I am," Larson said after qualifying Saturday. "I feel like I’m a bit like a fifth to seventh place car after practice. I felt like the 11 (Hamlin) was, by far, the best. But I almost won here in 2017 and I had a third to fifth place car. We just had some restarts there late and lined up in the right position. Anything can happen, so we’ll see. I’m hopeful.”