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Stenhouse, Dillon brothers among superspeedway fantasy plays to consider
By RJ Kraft | Published: February 14, 2020 19
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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NASCAR DIgital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: While only one of his four superspeedway wins has come at Daytona, Logano has five straight top-six finishes in the season opener. The 2018 champion is sure to be a strong play throughout the year but I like having one "Top Gun" in my lineup at the superspeedway and for this race, it's Logano for me.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: While only one of his four superspeedway wins has come at Daytona, Logano has five straight top-six finishes in the season opener. The 2018 champion is sure to be a strong play throughout the year but I like having one "Top Gun" in my lineup at the superspeedway and for this race, it's Logano for me.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: With two Daytona 500 wins to his name and three top-three finishes in his last four "Great American Race" starts, Hamlin is one of the top contenders this weekend. Here's the rub: Given his strong 2019 and a similar rules package, you may be better served to save the use and load him into bonus picks.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: With two Daytona 500 wins to his name and three top-three finishes in his last four "Great American Race" starts, Hamlin is one of the top contenders this weekend. Here's the rub: Given his strong 2019 and a similar rules package, you may be better served to save the use and load him into bonus picks.
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Streeter Lecka | Getty Images
Ryan Newman | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: The 2008 Daytona 500 winner has been one of the stronger options of late on superspeedways. Since the 2017 summer race at Daytona, he has eight top 10s in his last 10 starts on superspeedways with an average of 29.5 points. He won't get you much if any stage points, but when you look with two laps to go, he'll be there.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: The 2008 Daytona 500 winner has been one of the stronger options of late on superspeedways. Since the 2017 summer race at Daytona, he has eight top 10s in his last 10 starts on superspeedways with an average of 29.5 points. He won't get you much if any stage points, but when you look with two laps to go, he'll be there.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney always seems to unload fast at Speedweeks and he has had success in recent Daytona 500s (second in 2017, seventh in 2018). He's also the most recent superspeedway winner with his playoff victory at Talladega in 2019. Based on his strong close to 2019, I expect big things out of Blaney this year.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney always seems to unload fast at Speedweeks and he has had success in recent Daytona 500s (second in 2017, seventh in 2018). He's also the most recent superspeedway winner with his playoff victory at Talladega in 2019. Based on his strong close to 2019, I expect big things out of Blaney this year.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman only has one top 10 in seven Daytona starts but has an average of 31.3 points per race in his four starts in Hendrick equipment. Having now started on the front row in four of his last five Daytona starts, Bowman should be in the mix for some stage points. He's one of the better picks in the Chevy camp.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman only has one top 10 in seven Daytona starts but has an average of 31.3 points per race in his four starts in Hendrick equipment. Having now started on the front row in four of his last five Daytona starts, Bowman should be in the mix for some stage points. He's one of the better picks in the Chevy camp.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: The polesitter for Monday's race is no stranger to Daytona success with a summer win in 2017. He's also led 97 laps in the past five races there and has the third-most points at the track over the past six races (more than Logano and Hamlin). He's crashed out of two of the last three Daytona 500s, so one way or another, he'll be at the center of the action.
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: The polesitter for Monday's race is no stranger to Daytona success with a summer win in 2017. He's also led 97 laps in the past five races there and has the third-most points at the track over the past six races (more than Logano and Hamlin). He's crashed out of two of the last three Daytona 500s, so one way or another, he'll be at the center of the action.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Austin Dillon | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon is one of the best among the active drivers at Daytona. He has top 10s (seven) in over half of his starts (13). He led 46 laps in the summer race before wrecking out late in the event. He's coming off a down year, but is paired back up with the same crew chief he won the 2018 Daytona 500 with.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon is one of the best among the active drivers at Daytona. He has top 10s (seven) in over half of his starts (13). He led 46 laps in the summer race before wrecking out late in the event. He's coming off a down year, but is paired back up with the same crew chief he won the 2018 Daytona 500 with.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Jimmie Johnson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: The two-time Daytona 500 champ and three-time Daytona winner is entering his final full-time season. Johnson is one of two drivers to finish in the top 10 in both Daytona races last season – Ty Dillon is the other. From a usage perspective, he's more of a wildcard then he's been in the past at other tracks.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: The two-time Daytona 500 champ and three-time Daytona winner is entering his final full-time season. Johnson is one of two drivers to finish in the top 10 in both Daytona races last season – Ty Dillon is the other. From a usage perspective, he's more of a wildcard then he's been in the past at other tracks.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Erik Jones | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones survived a crash-filled finish to win the Busch Clash and he does have a summer win at Daytona. He is not top of mind for superspeedway racing, but he's a sneaky option based on some recency bias. He's had three top 10s and at least 28 points in three of his last five Daytona starts.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones survived a crash-filled finish to win the Busch Clash and he does have a summer win at Daytona. He is not top of mind for superspeedway racing, but he's a sneaky option based on some recency bias. He's had three top 10s and at least 28 points in three of his last five Daytona starts.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
SLEEPER: Matt DiBenedetto | View stats
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: DiBenedetto has three top 10s in his last six starts at Daytona. He also had a great run going in last year’s Daytona 500 – leading a race-high 49 laps – before a late wreck. The early results may be up and down but the Woods (along with a Penske alliance) know how to get it done at this track type.
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: DiBenedetto has three top 10s in his last six starts at Daytona. He also had a great run going in last year’s Daytona 500 – leading a race-high 49 laps – before a late wreck. The early results may be up and down but the Woods (along with a Penske alliance) know how to get it done at this track type.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
SLEEPER: Michael McDowell | View stats
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: Would you believe me if I told you that McDowell has earned the most points –175 – in the last six Daytona races? It is a fact. He has one finish outside the top 15 during that stretch with three races of over 30 points. He's a great play to make if you are looking to save some of the bigger names right away.
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: Would you believe me if I told you that McDowell has earned the most points –175 – in the last six Daytona races? It is a fact. He has one finish outside the top 15 during that stretch with three races of over 30 points. He's a great play to make if you are looking to save some of the bigger names right away.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
SLEEPER: Ty Dillon | View stats
Germain Racing, No. 13 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: How is this for Dillon's last three Daytona results? Sixth, sixth and fourth – a stretch that has seen him average 33.7 points per race. Those top 10s are three of the four in his Cup career to date. This play is along the lines of McDowell especially considering he's not likely in the mix at many other tracks.
Germain Racing, No. 13 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: How is this for Dillon's last three Daytona results? Sixth, sixth and fourth – a stretch that has seen him average 33.7 points per race. Those top 10s are three of the four in his Cup career to date. This play is along the lines of McDowell especially considering he's not likely in the mix at many other tracks.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
SLEEPER: Chris Buescher | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Readers of this franchise know I am a big believer in Buescher. He had a run of three straight top 10s at Daytona (summer 2017 through 2018). Being in the Ford camp and working with a teammate like Ryan Newman only boosts his chances for good finishes at the superspeedways.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Readers of this franchise know I am a big believer in Buescher. He had a run of three straight top 10s at Daytona (summer 2017 through 2018). Being in the Ford camp and working with a teammate like Ryan Newman only boosts his chances for good finishes at the superspeedways.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
SLEEPER: Justin Haley | View stats
Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: If you are looking for a deep, deep sleeper, look no further than Haley. He's the most recent Daytona winner in the Cup ranks and has a runner-up finish in both Xfinity (2019) and Gander Trucks (2018) over the past two seasons at this track. He's one of four open cars to make the field.
Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: If you are looking for a deep, deep sleeper, look no further than Haley. He's the most recent Daytona winner in the Cup ranks and has a runner-up finish in both Xfinity (2019) and Gander Trucks (2018) over the past two seasons at this track. He's one of four open cars to make the field.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski is one of the best at superspeedways but almost all that success has been at Talladega. He has one Daytona win, but just three top fives and four top 10s in 21 starts there. He's also wrecked out of five of his last six Daytona starts and finished inside the top 15 once in that stretch.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski is one of the best at superspeedways but almost all that success has been at Talladega. He has one Daytona win, but just three top fives and four top 10s in 21 starts there. He's also wrecked out of five of his last six Daytona starts and finished inside the top 15 once in that stretch.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: This game is about managing your uses – you only have 10 in the regular season. With Las Vegas, Fontana, Phoenix, Atlanta, Miami and Texas up next, it's likely going to be a Harvick-heavy spring. He's wrecked out of five of the past seven Daytona races so you are best served to save him.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: This game is about managing your uses – you only have 10 in the regular season. With Las Vegas, Fontana, Phoenix, Atlanta, Miami and Texas up next, it's likely going to be a Harvick-heavy spring. He's wrecked out of five of the past seven Daytona races so you are best served to save him.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 13-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex has no wins in his Cup career on superspeedways with just four top fives (two each at Daytona and Talladega) in 59 starts. Factor in his recent strong runs at upcoming tracks like Las Vegas, Fontana, Atlanta and Miami and it's worth keeping him out of the lineup for a week.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 13-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex has no wins in his Cup career on superspeedways with just four top fives (two each at Daytona and Talladega) in 59 starts. Factor in his recent strong runs at upcoming tracks like Las Vegas, Fontana, Atlanta and Miami and it's worth keeping him out of the lineup for a week.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Joey Logano, Matt DiBenedetto, Alex Bowman, Austin Dillon, Erik Jones; Garage: Ryan Newman. Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece on Saturday for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Monday's race resumption at 4 p.m. ET on FOX.
with your lineups and questions ahead of Monday's race resumption at 4 p.m. ET on FOX.