BACK TO GALLERIES
Loading up on Penske power in Fantasy Live for Las Vegas
By RJ Kraft | Published: February 21, 2020 17
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
1 of 17
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: The most recent winner at Las Vegas has won there twice in the past five races. During that same stretch, Truex has an average of 50.4 points and an average finish of 3.4 -- both are tops over that span. Simply put, this is a driver to build a lineup around for this weekend's race.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: The most recent winner at Las Vegas has won there twice in the past five races. During that same stretch, Truex has an average of 50.4 points and an average finish of 3.4 -- both are tops over that span. Simply put, this is a driver to build a lineup around for this weekend's race.
2 of 17
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 9-2
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has two Las Vegas wins on his resume and three additional top-seven finishes around two crash-induced exits in his last seven races here. He tied Joey Logano for the most points earned on 1.5-mile tracks last season and averaged 51.5 points in both Vegas races. He needs to be somewhere on your roster.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 9-2
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has two Las Vegas wins on his resume and three additional top-seven finishes around two crash-induced exits in his last seven races here. He tied Joey Logano for the most points earned on 1.5-mile tracks last season and averaged 51.5 points in both Vegas races. He needs to be somewhere on your roster.
3 of 17
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has three Las Vegas wins and all have come in every other year (2014, 2016 and 2018) in even years. He also carries a streak of nine straight top-seven finishes at the track. In the past five races there, he has averaged 43.2 points -- third highest in that stretch. I'd value him higher than Joey Logano here.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has three Las Vegas wins and all have come in every other year (2014, 2016 and 2018) in even years. He also carries a streak of nine straight top-seven finishes at the track. In the past five races there, he has averaged 43.2 points -- third highest in that stretch. I'd value him higher than Joey Logano here.
4 of 17
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano is the defending race winner of the spring Vegas event, and his 8.5 average finish is the best among all active drivers at this track. He carries a stretch of eight straight top 10s here with 432 laps led in that time. Add in that he tied with Kevin Harvick for the most points on 1.5-mile ovals last year and he's a must.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano is the defending race winner of the spring Vegas event, and his 8.5 average finish is the best among all active drivers at this track. He carries a stretch of eight straight top 10s here with 432 laps led in that time. Add in that he tied with Kevin Harvick for the most points on 1.5-mile ovals last year and he's a must.
5 of 17
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 9-2
Fastlane forecast: Busch is solid -- not spectacular -- at his home track. Unlike his brother, Kurt, he does have a win here and also seven top fives in 17 starts. He's not someone to avoid, but others are stronger plays here. With strong tracks like Auto Club and Phoenix around the corner, being conservative on his uses is wise.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 9-2
Fastlane forecast: Busch is solid -- not spectacular -- at his home track. Unlike his brother, Kurt, he does have a win here and also seven top fives in 17 starts. He's not someone to avoid, but others are stronger plays here. With strong tracks like Auto Club and Phoenix around the corner, being conservative on his uses is wise.
6 of 17
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Kyle Larson | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Las Vegas has been one of Larson's better tracks with an average finish of 11.0. He has yet to win there, but he has three top fives and five top 10s in eight starts. Over the past five races there, he has the fourth-most points -- an average of 40.4 -- that mark is better than Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch over the same span.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Las Vegas has been one of Larson's better tracks with an average finish of 11.0. He has yet to win there, but he has three top fives and five top 10s in eight starts. Over the past five races there, he has the fourth-most points -- an average of 40.4 -- that mark is better than Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch over the same span.
7 of 17
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Las Vegas has been one of Blaney's best tracks in his young career. He has a 9.9 average finish overall with three top fives in his last four starts there. YRB has recorded the fifth-most points in the last five races there, too. The one bugaboo: inconsistency on 1.5-milers. He tied for the 14th-most points last season on that track type.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Las Vegas has been one of Blaney's best tracks in his young career. He has a 9.9 average finish overall with three top fives in his last four starts there. YRB has recorded the fifth-most points in the last five races there, too. The one bugaboo: inconsistency on 1.5-milers. He tied for the 14th-most points last season on that track type.
8 of 17
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott's Las Vegas track record is boom or bust. In six starts, he has two top fives, three top 10s and has wrecked out of three races. In last year's races, though, he had the fifth-most points (an average of 37.5). He also was the fifth-best driver in 2019 on 1.5-mile tracks with an average of 34.8 points.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott's Las Vegas track record is boom or bust. In six starts, he has two top fives, three top 10s and has wrecked out of three races. In last year's races, though, he had the fifth-most points (an average of 37.5). He also was the fifth-best driver in 2019 on 1.5-mile tracks with an average of 34.8 points.
9 of 17
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman had two top-11 finishes in both Las Vegas races last year -- good for the 10th-most points at the track. More of note, he had the sixth-most points in 2019 on 1.5-mile tracks with an average of 33.1 points and a victory at Chicagoland. He's a stealth play if you're looking to save the big plays for later.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman had two top-11 finishes in both Las Vegas races last year -- good for the 10th-most points at the track. More of note, he had the sixth-most points in 2019 on 1.5-mile tracks with an average of 33.1 points and a victory at Chicagoland. He's a stealth play if you're looking to save the big plays for later.
10 of 17
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Aric Almirola | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: Almirola's last four Vegas starts -- all with SHR -- have produced finishes of 10th, 6th, 7th and 13th. That gives him the eighth-most points over that stretch. Despite only having three top 10s on 1.5-mile ovals in 2019, he produced the 10th-most points at that track type.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: Almirola's last four Vegas starts -- all with SHR -- have produced finishes of 10th, 6th, 7th and 13th. That gives him the eighth-most points over that stretch. Despite only having three top 10s on 1.5-mile ovals in 2019, he produced the 10th-most points at that track type.
11 of 17
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Christopher Bell | View stats
Leavine Family Racing, No. 95 Toyota
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: Bell is a bit of an unknown equation in the Cup ranks. He has had Xfinity success at this track with three top-four finishes and the speed shown at Daytona from the get-go is promising. The early read is to be patient and see what happens. That said, he's someone I will be monitoring in practice and lap averages.
Leavine Family Racing, No. 95 Toyota
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: Bell is a bit of an unknown equation in the Cup ranks. He has had Xfinity success at this track with three top-four finishes and the speed shown at Daytona from the get-go is promising. The early read is to be patient and see what happens. That said, he's someone I will be monitoring in practice and lap averages.
12 of 17
Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Ross Chastain | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 1,000-1 (DraftKings SportsBook)
Fastlane forecast: Color us a bit intrigued by the fill in for Ryan Newman. Last year, the No. 6 car finished 24th in the spring (discounted by the fact it was Newman's third start for the team) and 10th in the fall race. Adding to the intrigue, Chastain won at this track in the Xfinity Series in the fall of 2018. Monitor how he fares in practice.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 1,000-1 (DraftKings SportsBook)
Fastlane forecast: Color us a bit intrigued by the fill in for Ryan Newman. Last year, the No. 6 car finished 24th in the spring (discounted by the fact it was Newman's third start for the team) and 10th in the fall race. Adding to the intrigue, Chastain won at this track in the Xfinity Series in the fall of 2018. Monitor how he fares in practice.
13 of 17
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Stats show the "Daytona 500 victory hangover" is a thing with just one instance of a Daytona 500 champ winning the next week (Matt Kenseth, 2009) and only five additional top-five finishes in the past 15 years. On top of that, Hamlin has just two career top fives in 16 starts at Las Vegas.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Stats show the "Daytona 500 victory hangover" is a thing with just one instance of a Daytona 500 champ winning the next week (Matt Kenseth, 2009) and only five additional top-five finishes in the past 15 years. On top of that, Hamlin has just two career top fives in 16 starts at Las Vegas.
14 of 17
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Clint Bowyer | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 60-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowyer has just one top 10 in his last nine Cup starts at Las Vegas. In his last 10 starts at 1.5-mile ovals, he is tied for the 14th-most points. That combination just isn't promising entering the first intermediate race of the season. We love Bowyer on short tracks but not this track type at the outset of 2020.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 60-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowyer has just one top 10 in his last nine Cup starts at Las Vegas. In his last 10 starts at 1.5-mile ovals, he is tied for the 14th-most points. That combination just isn't promising entering the first intermediate race of the season. We love Bowyer on short tracks but not this track type at the outset of 2020.
15 of 17
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Las Vegas is Busch’s hometown track, but that "home-field advantage" hasn't yielded strong results. He has just two top fives (one of which came last spring) and five top 10s in 20 starts. He has a whopping nine finishes outside the top 25 here, and his 22.4 average finish is his worst at any track.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Las Vegas is Busch’s hometown track, but that "home-field advantage" hasn't yielded strong results. He has just two top fives (one of which came last spring) and five top 10s in 20 starts. He has a whopping nine finishes outside the top 25 here, and his 22.4 average finish is his worst at any track.
16 of 17
Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Kyle Larson; Garage: Chase Elliott.
Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece Saturday for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece Saturday for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
17 of 17
NASCAR Digital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from Westgate Sports Book unless otherwise noted.
PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today.
PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today.