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AVONDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 07: Chase Elliott, driver of the #9 UniFirst Chevrolet, stands on the grid during qualifying for the NASCAR Cup Series FanShield 500 at Phoenix Raceway on March 07, 2020 in Avondale, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) | Getty Images
BACK TO GALLERIES

Fantasy Fastlane: Hendrick’s hot start, rookie waiting game and usage strategies to know

By RJ Kraft | Published: March 19, 2020 9
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
BACK TO GALLERIES

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AVONDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 08: Brad Keselowski, driver of the #2 Alliance Parts Ford, leads the pack during the NASCAR Cup Series FanShield 500 at Phoenix Raceway on March 08, 2020 in Avondale, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Christian Petersen | Getty Images

We are four races into the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season and have seen races at a variety of track types (a superspeedway, intermediates and a short track – based on the rules package used). The planned schedule may change a bit when racing resumes, but that is something to deal with when it happens. With any sample size, there is always something we can learn. So, with that in mind, this week's Fantasy Fastlane examines the early learnings to apply for the rest of the season.

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AVONDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 07: Chase Elliott, driver of the #9 UniFirst Chevrolet, stands on the grid during qualifying for the NASCAR Cup Series FanShield 500 at Phoenix Raceway on March 07, 2020 in Avondale, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Chris Graythen | Getty Images

Hendrick resurgence is real: Three of Hendrick Motorsports's four drivers are in the top six in fantasy points through the first four races. Chase Elliott (third) has three stage wins, had speed everywhere and was a contender at Las Vegas and Phoenix. Alex Bowman won at Auto Club and nearly won at Las Vegas. Jimmie Johnson also has shown speed at the intermediates and looks to have put his 2019 struggles in the rearview mirror. Only William Byron has yet to score more than 30 points in a race, but his time is coming. The advice here is to hoard Bowman for the 1.5-milers, plan to use Johnson at an assortment of tracks and Elliott is stout everywhere but focus largely on his strongholds of Dover, Michigan and Watkins Glen while keeping an open mind on his other uses. Byron is one I don't have a set plan for, but there will be opportunities to play him.

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FONTANA, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 28: Kevin Harvick, driver of the #4 Mobil 1 Ford, prepares for practice at Auto Club Speedway on February 28, 2020 in Fontana, California. (Photo by Meg Oliphant/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Meg Oliphant | Getty Images

Harvick is the best: No surprise here that Kevin Harvick is the best driver in Fantasy Live with the most points earned through the season's first four races. The 2014 champion is strong at nearly every track type. For me, the priority with Harvick remains intermediates. Let's budget out the remaining regular-season uses for him. In my case, I have already used him twice (Las Vegas and Phoenix) and, for the purposes of this exercise, let's operate with the thought Atlanta, Miami and Texas – three Harvick strongholds of recent years – will be made up in the regular season. For my remaining five uses, I am eying Harvick for Kansas, both Michigan races, Chicagoland and New Hampshire.

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FONTANA, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 29: Kyle Busch, driver of the #18 Interstate Batteries Toyota, walks on the grid before qualifying for the NASCAR Cup Series Auto Club 400 at Auto Club Speedway on February 29, 2020 in Fontana, California. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Katelyn Mulcahy | Getty Images

Slow play your hand with JGR: It has been well documented the Joe Gibbs Racing camp is off on speed in the early going. Martin Truex Jr. has had some long-run speed to work with, but bad luck and circumstances have left him with poor finishes. I still feel relatively good about him on intermediates. Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin are two drivers I'm looking to stay away from – FOR NOW – on the intermediates. On the short tracks and 1-milers, I'll be all-in on these two and waiting to strike later in the year on the 1.5-milers. Much like William Byron, Erik Jones is a driver I'll be looking to sprinkle in as circumstances dictate. The thing with Jones to keep in mind is he is streaky. The hot streaks are generally pretty strong, but the cold spells are frigid.

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AVONDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 08: Joey Logano, driver of the #22 Shell Pennzoil Ford, affixes the winners decal after winning the NASCAR Cup Series FanShield 500 at Phoenix Raceway on March 08, 2020 in Avondale, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Christian Petersen | Getty Images

Penske power: Joey Logano already has two wins, Ryan Blaney was arguably one of the three best cars in each of the opening three races of the season, and Brad Keselowski was strong in the second half of the Phoenix race. The powerhouse organization has certainly shown up to play for keeps in the early going after undergoing a crew-chief shuffle across its three NASCAR Cup Series teams. The Paul Wolfe-Logano and Todd Gordon-Blaney pairings have hit the ground running, but don't sleep on the Jeremy Bullins-Keselowski combo. Their Phoenix run was extremely encouraging and sets up Keselowski to be a major player with the short-track and road-course package. Blaney is a great play for most intermediates with the high tire-wear tracks of Atlanta, Miami and Darlington being the ones I’d exercise a little more caution. With Logano, it’s business as usual. Deploy him at his strong spots like Richmond, both Michigan races, Chicagoland and Miami (when it's made up).

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DAYTONA BEACH, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 17: Matt DiBenedetto, driver of the #21 Motorcraft/Quick Lane Ford, stands on the grid  during the NASCAR Cup Series 62nd Annual Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway on February 17, 2020 in Daytona Beach, Florida. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Chris Graythen | Getty Images

Surprise, surprise: The strong opening stanzas from Alex Bowman and Jimmie Johnson qualify as surprises, but since we've already covered them, let’s look at Matt DiBenedetto. I felt entering the year he was a playoff driver, and his early results haven't disappointed. He has averaged 31 points in the three races since Daytona and had speed at most tracks. He has tailed off in the second half of races at Auto Club and Phoenix but nabbed solid Stage 1 points in both races. Outside of Bristol, it's hard to pinpoint solid spots to roster him based on his past results. So I'd lean into how the No. 21 team under crew chief Greg Erwin has tended to run at tracks – Indianapolis, Kentucky and Michigan stand out there. You don't need to have a set plan with DiBenedetto but be willing to be flexible to plug him in if the results dictate it.

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AVONDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 06: Clint Bowyer, driver of the #14 Mobil 1/Haas CNC Ford, prepares to drive during practice for the NASCAR Cup Series FanShield 500 at Phoenix Raceway on March 06, 2020 in Avondale, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Christian Petersen | Getty Images

Pick your spots with key veterans: Clint Bowyer and Kurt Busch haven't gotten off to the most rip-roaring of starts, but each has a top five and a top 10. They rank 13th and 17th, respectively, in Fantasy Live points. Bowyer's best result came at Phoenix – which, despite his spotty history there, wasn’t a big surprise. He should fare well at other tracks where the short-track and road-course package is used (Bristol, Richmond, both Dover races, Martinsville, Sonoma, New Hampshire and Watkins Glen). Busch is one where it's important to study his history and know where he has fared well. Auto Club and Phoenix are among his five best regular-season tracks and he scored well there. I'd be targeting Atlanta, Bristol, Sonoma and Kentucky as likely uses for the 2004 champion.

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AVONDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 07: Tyler Reddick, driver of the #8 I Am Second Chevrolet, talks with Cole Custer, driver of the #41 Haas Automation Ford, on the grid during qualifying for the NASCAR Cup Series FanShield 500 at Phoenix Raceway on March 07, 2020 in Avondale, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Christian Petersen | Getty Images

Rookie waiting game: Much was made of the strong Sunoco Rookie of the Year class in the NASCAR Cup Series coming into the season. So far, though, no rookie is in the top 20 in points. Tyler Reddick is the highest at 24th in the Fantasy Live game, followed by Cole Custer (25th), John Hunter Nemechek (27th) and Christopher Bell (31st). I thought Bell would be more of a fantasy factor, and I thought Reddick would be a driver to pick your spots with at high-line, tire-wear tracks like Auto Club, Atlanta and Miami. Nemechek has played himself into a driver I might consider at a superspeedway to save uses elsewhere. The point is, don't force uses of rookies when the season resumes. They likely are going to be much better in the second half of the season when you are going to be looking for some avenues to save uses on some of the big names.

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FONTANA, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 01: Alex Bowman, driver of the #88 Cincinnati Chevrolet, celebrates his win in the NASCAR Cup Series Auto Club 400 at Auto Club Speedway on March 01, 2020 in Fontana, California. (Photo by Meg Oliphant/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Meg Oliphant | Getty Images

They are who we thought they were: It can be easy to overthink things, but consider the highest point getter in each race so far.

Daytona: Denny Hamlin-50 points. He's now a three-time Daytona 500 winner and arguably one of the top superspeedway racers going.

Las Vegas: Joey Logano-52 points. Vegas is statistically his best track, and he won this race in 2019.

Auto Club: Alex Bowman-59 points. If you watched or studied any bit of practice data from that weekend, it was clear Bowman was the car to beat from the get-go.

Phoenix: Kevin Harvick-54 points. The "Cactus King" has nine Phoenix wins and should never be bet against at this track.

Sometimes, we can outsmart ourselves by thinking too much. Only Harvick did not win the race – Logano also took Phoenix.
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