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Fantasy Fastlane: Oh, Busch brothers, where art thou?
By RJ Kraft | Published: May 29, 2020 18
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NASCAR Digital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 4-1
Fastlane forecast: If you are going by wins, Bristol is Busch's best track with eight victories. He also has three wins in his last five starts there, including two victories in the spring race. Over that same stretch of races at Bristol, he has the most points with an average of 42. This is the cornerstone pick for the weekend.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 4-1
Fastlane forecast: If you are going by wins, Bristol is Busch's best track with eight victories. He also has three wins in his last five starts there, including two victories in the spring race. Over that same stretch of races at Bristol, he has the most points with an average of 42. This is the cornerstone pick for the weekend.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott has had one of the best cars in 2020, and grabbed his first win of 2020 on Thursday night. The key with Elliott is identifying at which tracks you are best served to use him. Of the short tracks on the circuit, Bristol is his best with an average finish of 11.5 and two top-five finishes in his last three starts.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott has had one of the best cars in 2020, and grabbed his first win of 2020 on Thursday night. The key with Elliott is identifying at which tracks you are best served to use him. Of the short tracks on the circuit, Bristol is his best with an average finish of 11.5 and two top-five finishes in his last three starts.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: Logano has two wins at Bristol. Over the last six races there, he has earned the most points among drivers entered in the race. When evaluating Logano for this track, don't be deceived by a lower than expected average finish -- he's been solid here with Penske as opposed to his younger days with JGR.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: Logano has two wins at Bristol. Over the last six races there, he has earned the most points among drivers entered in the race. When evaluating Logano for this track, don't be deceived by a lower than expected average finish -- he's been solid here with Penske as opposed to his younger days with JGR.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Just like his younger brother, if you go by wins, Bristol is his best track with six victories. He finished as the runner up in this race last spring and has three top-five finishes in his last five races. During that stretch, he has the second-most points among Sunday's field -- an average of 35 points.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Just like his younger brother, if you go by wins, Bristol is his best track with six victories. He finished as the runner up in this race last spring and has three top-five finishes in his last five races. During that stretch, he has the second-most points among Sunday's field -- an average of 35 points.
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Clint Bowyer | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 22-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowyer is one of the best among active drivers on short tracks. While he has no wins at Bristol, he has the fourth-most points in the last five races at the 0.533-mile track -- an average of 34.4. Digging back further, he has top 10s in seven of his last nine starts in Thunder Valley. Solid production to roster.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 22-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowyer is one of the best among active drivers on short tracks. While he has no wins at Bristol, he has the fourth-most points in the last five races at the 0.533-mile track -- an average of 34.4. Digging back further, he has top 10s in seven of his last nine starts in Thunder Valley. Solid production to roster.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney has led at least 100 laps in three of the past four races at Bristol. He also has finished in the top 10 in four of the last five races. In the last three races at "The Last Great Colosseum," Blaney has the second-most points -- an average of 41.3. This is a great spot to play YRB.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney has led at least 100 laps in three of the past four races at Bristol. He also has finished in the top 10 in four of the last five races. In the last three races at "The Last Great Colosseum," Blaney has the second-most points -- an average of 41.3. This is a great spot to play YRB.
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Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin is the most recent winner at Bristol and has two victories there in his Cup career -- both in the summertime night race. He does have four top-five finishes in his last seven starts there and the fifth-most points over the last six. The big concern is no Chris Gabehart (crew chief) for three more races.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin is the most recent winner at Bristol and has two victories there in his Cup career -- both in the summertime night race. He does have four top-five finishes in his last seven starts there and the fifth-most points over the last six. The big concern is no Chris Gabehart (crew chief) for three more races.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Jimmie Johnson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Bristol has been one of Johnson's better tracks of late. He won the spring 2017 race -- one of two wins he has there. "Seven-Time" has the third-most points over the last six races there and four top 10s in that stretch. He also has eight top 10s in his last 11 races at the 0.533-mile track.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Bristol has been one of Johnson's better tracks of late. He won the spring 2017 race -- one of two wins he has there. "Seven-Time" has the third-most points over the last six races there and four top 10s in that stretch. He also has eight top 10s in his last 11 races at the 0.533-mile track.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Matt Kenseth | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 28-1
Fastlane forecast: Kenseth has four wins at Bristol and the most top fives (15) and top 10s (22) among Sunday's field. The downside: All those victories came from starting spots inside the top five. He's unlikely to have such good track position from the get-go this time. Despite the sluggish, start at CGR, this seems like a spot where he's primed to bust out.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 28-1
Fastlane forecast: Kenseth has four wins at Bristol and the most top fives (15) and top 10s (22) among Sunday's field. The downside: All those victories came from starting spots inside the top five. He's unlikely to have such good track position from the get-go this time. Despite the sluggish, start at CGR, this seems like a spot where he's primed to bust out.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Ryan Newman | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Newman has been a top-10 machine at Bristol over the course of his career with 19 in 36 starts in Thunder Valley. Over the past six races at Bristol, the veteran has the fifth-most points among drivers entered in Sunday’s race -- more than Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick in that stretch.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Newman has been a top-10 machine at Bristol over the course of his career with 19 in 36 starts in Thunder Valley. Over the past six races at Bristol, the veteran has the fifth-most points among drivers entered in Sunday’s race -- more than Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick in that stretch.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Matt DiBenedetto | View stats
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Bristol is statistically DiBenedetto's best non-road course/roval track on the circuit. It's impossible to forget about his runner-up finish last summer under the lights, and he also finished sixth in the spring race in 2016. This feels like an opportunity to grab a use from a less heralded play.
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Bristol is statistically DiBenedetto's best non-road course/roval track on the circuit. It's impossible to forget about his runner-up finish last summer under the lights, and he also finished sixth in the spring race in 2016. This feels like an opportunity to grab a use from a less heralded play.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: Reddick has been a revelation in the races since the season resumed. He has averaged 29.8 points in the last four races and showed solid speed before a crash at Phoenix -- which depending on who you ask could be considered a "short track." The rookie also scored a win in last summer's Xfinity race here.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: Reddick has been a revelation in the races since the season resumed. He has averaged 29.8 points in the last four races and showed solid speed before a crash at Phoenix -- which depending on who you ask could be considered a "short track." The rookie also scored a win in last summer's Xfinity race here.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Christopher Bell | View stats
Leavine Family Racing, No. 95 Toyota
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Bell has bounced back after a rough start to his rookie year with two top-11 finishes in his last three races. He won the spring Xfinity race at Bristol in 2019. That makes him a potentially sneaky use saver for a race where trouble lurks more than you think. The main red flag is he will be starting in the back half of the field.
Leavine Family Racing, No. 95 Toyota
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Bell has bounced back after a rough start to his rookie year with two top-11 finishes in his last three races. He won the spring Xfinity race at Bristol in 2019. That makes him a potentially sneaky use saver for a race where trouble lurks more than you think. The main red flag is he will be starting in the back half of the field.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Bristol is Truex's worst track that isn't over two miles. He has an average finish of 20.6 with just two top fives and three top 10s in 28 starts. Simply put, Truex is far too valuable to burn a use at a track where history and the numbers aren't on his side.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Bristol is Truex's worst track that isn't over two miles. He has an average finish of 20.6 with just two top fives and three top 10s in 28 starts. Simply put, Truex is far too valuable to burn a use at a track where history and the numbers aren't on his side.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick is the lone driver to record top 10s in every race so far this season through the 600. So the question isn't so much should you play Harvick -- it's more like is Bristol the best place to burn one of your uses for the 2014 champ? For me, I want him at tracks where speed is at more of a premium and not a track where beating and banging on bumpers is more prevalent.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick is the lone driver to record top 10s in every race so far this season through the 600. So the question isn't so much should you play Harvick -- it's more like is Bristol the best place to burn one of your uses for the 2014 champ? For me, I want him at tracks where speed is at more of a premium and not a track where beating and banging on bumpers is more prevalent.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: In four starts at Bristol, Byron has never finished better than 16th and has an average finish of 19.5. This year's breakout pick has had a slow start out of the gate, but the one thing we've seen from him is speed on the intermediates. Use that as his calling card in fantasy and hold the use back at the short track.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: In four starts at Bristol, Byron has never finished better than 16th and has an average finish of 19.5. This year's breakout pick has had a slow start out of the gate, but the one thing we've seen from him is speed on the intermediates. Use that as his calling card in fantasy and hold the use back at the short track.
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Donald Page | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Kurt Busch, Matt DiBenedetto, Ryan Blaney, Garage: Matt Kenseth
. This may see some changes after I digest the starting lineup for a bit but this is where I am leaning.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.