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May 30, 2020

NASCAR Finish Line: Analyzing best Group 3 plays for Bristol race


NASCAR Finish Line, a free-to-play gaming app from Penn National Gaming, is back with the resumption of the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season. Each week, there will be six groups of five drivers for the upcoming race. Users will predict which driver will finish first among each of the six groups and then the overall race winner and second-place finisher for a chance to win $25,000 if all eight scenarios are correctly selected.

RELATED: Download NASCAR Finish Line

The third of six groups for Sunday’s Food City presents the Supermarket Heroes 500 race at Bristol Motor Speedway (3:30 p.m. ET on FS1/FOX Sports App, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) consists of a strong mix of youth vs. experience — Alex Bowman, Clint Bowyer, Matt DiBenedetto, Jimmie Johnson and Erik Jones.

For a stats look, NASCAR.com has compiled the average finish of the last two races at Bristol, the average finish from the two races held at Darlington Raceway, the average finish from the two races just held at Charlotte Motor Speedway and the drivers’ overall average finish for their career at Bristol to see who is the best play to make in Group 3.

A points system has been assigned, starting with one point for the best finisher and counting up to six points for the worst finisher. Those numbers were then added up. The lowest total signifies the strongest driver (green), and the highest total represents the weakest driver (red) — in recent years.

Driver Last 2 Bristol races‘1 Career Bristol
avg. finish
Both 2020 Darlington races
Both 2020 Charlotte races
Total
Alex Bowman Avg. finish: 19.0 (4) Avg. finish: 20.9 (5) Avg. finish 10.0 (2) Avg. finish: 25.0 (3) 14
Clint Bowyer Avg. finish: 7.0 (1.5) Avg. finish: 14.1 (2) Avg. finish 19.5 (4) Avg. finish: 27.5 (5) 12.5
Matt DiBenedetto Avg. finish: 7.0 (1.5) Avg. finish: 17.9 (4) Avg. finish 11.5 (3) Avg. finish: 16.0 (1) 9.5
Jimmie Johnson Avg. finish: 14.5 (3) Avg. finish: 13.3 (1) Avg. finish 23.0 (5) Avg. finish: 25.5 (4) 13
Erik Jones Avg. finish: 23.0 (5) Avg. finish: 16.0 (3) Avg. finish 6.5 (1) Avg. finish: 18.5 (2) 11

Although DiBenedetto didn’t light the world on fire with finishes of 17th and 15th at Charlotte, he still managed to get the best average finish in that category, which shows he has some momentum on his side. Tying Bowyer with the best average finish the past two races at Bristol, it’s his heartbreaking second-place finish in last year’s night race to Denny Hamlin that makes him a trendy pick for Sunday. Wood Brothers Racing always brings a good car to the half-mile Tennessee track and DiBenedetto knows how to wheel it around that place.

You could make a case for Jones with the speed he has showcased in the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota at Darlington and Charlotte, but it’s risky given his lackluster performances at Bristol. Although Bowman has been fast all season, not sure he’s the best choice out of the bunch for Sunday.

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