Will he do it? Ranking Kyle Busch’s best shots at regular-season win

Somehow, some way, we're halfway into the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season ... and defending champion Kyle Busch has yet to bow after a premier series checkered flag falls. With just seven races remaining in the regular season, will the No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing driver -- who has averaged 3.73 wins per season across his previous 15 full-time campaigns -- win before the NASCAR Playoffs? NASCAR.com's Pat DeCola ranks the remaining tracks from least- to most-likely.

5. Daytona International Speedway (tri-oval)

Starts: 30
Wins: 1
Top fives: 8
Top 10s: 9
Laps led: 437
Avg. finish: 19.0
Analysis: Of course, anything could happen at Daytona, so this in no way rules out the possibility of a Busch win there. The 2019 Cup champ has just one top 10 at the track since 2016, however, and the risk of getting caught up in a wreck not of his doing is higher than anywhere else. This also marks the final race of the regular season, so if he hasn't won by then it probably isn't likely to happen here.

4. Daytona International Speedway (road course)

Starts: 0
Wins: 0
Top fives: 0
Top 10s: 0
Laps led: 0
Avg. fin: 0
Analysis: That's a whole lot of zeroes above, so why wouldn't this be the least-likely spot for it to happen? Well, a few reasons. For one, he's pretty exceptional on road courses in general (four wins, 11 top fives, 13.8 average finish in 32 starts). He's also one of just a small handful of drivers (along with Clint Bowyer, Cole Custer, Timmy Hill, Jimmie Johnson and Michael McDowell) and the most recent to have raced on the course before, participating in this year's Rolex 24. With Tuesday's news there would be no practice or qualifying for this race, chalk up this one to advantage: "Rowdy."

3. Michigan International Speedway

Starts: 30
Wins: 1
Top fives: 7
Top 10s: 12
Laps led: 258
Avg. finish: 17.5
Analysis: As you can tell from the photo above, Busch's sole Michigan win came quite some time ago -- 2011, to be exact. His average finish leaves room for improvement as well, but this actually could be a nice spot for him. Not only will he get two shots at it in the same weekend (and be able to use the first race to dial in his No. 18 Toyota), "Rowdy" has notched six straight Michigan top 10s with an average finish of 5.83 over that span.

2. Dover International Speedway

Starts: 30
Wins: 3
Top fives: 12
Top 10s: 19
Laps led: 1,210
Avg. finish: 14.3
Analysis: I'm sorry, but there is just no way, no how Busch -- arguably the best in the series at telling his team what his car needs while he's driving it -- makes it through five points in the season (Darlington, Charlotte, Pocono, Michigan, Dover) where he races at a track twice in a span of a few days and wins none of them. Dover is his last shot to figure out one track over back-to-back races, and it happens to be one of his best. Expect "Rowdy" to go into Monster Mode ™️ and potentially sweep the weekend if he hasn't won by now.

1. New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Starts: 28
Wins: 3
Top fives: 11
Top 10s: 16
Laps led: 1,128
Avg. finish: 12.6
Analysis: Of course, Busch likely won't have to rely on winning at some of the previously mentioned tracks, because it's hard to see how he won't show up at the "Magic Mile" with one of the fastest cars and the technical know-how to wind up as the one holding the lobster at the end of the day. Though Kevin Harvick swept the track last year, Joe Gibbs Racing has been straight fire there most of the past decade and Busch has been at the forefront of that. Since 2013, "Rowdy" has two wins, four runner-up finishes, an average finish of 7.17 and 783 laps led in 12 races.