BACK TO GALLERIES
Predicting every 2020 NASCAR Cup Series playoff race winner
By Zack Albert and Pat DeCola | Published: August 31, 2020 11
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Before the 2020 campaign started, NASCAR.com's Zack Albert and Pat DeCola took a run at predicting every winner in the Cup Series season. Well, the outbreak of COVID-19 forced heavy revisions to the schedule, and a handful of races were reassigned to different tracks. Some picks we got right: Pat's pick of Ryan Blaney at the first Talladega race, Kevin Harvick's triumph that Zack called for Atlanta. Other picks, not so much: Say, the forecast of four regular-season wins for Kyle Busch or the two wins predicted for Erik Jones by this point.
With the arrival for the playoffs, it's time for a much-needed do-over. If the schedule can undergo a significant overhaul, so can these predictions. Knowing what we know so far, here's our revised predictions for the 10-race Cup Series postseason.
With the arrival for the playoffs, it's time for a much-needed do-over. If the schedule can undergo a significant overhaul, so can these predictions. Knowing what we know so far, here's our revised predictions for the 10-race Cup Series postseason.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Southern 500
Zack's original preseason pick: Denny Hamlin
Zack's revised pre-playoff pick: Denny Hamlin
Why: Before the season started, we didn't imagine Darlington would already have two Cup Series events in the books, but here we are. If anything, those springtime additions to the historic track's schedule only reaffirm the call for Hamlin, a six-time winner this year who added his third Darlington victory to his resume on May 20.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Richmond*
Pat's original preseason pick: Kyle Busch
Pat's revised pre-playoff pick: Denny Hamlin
Why: I maintain Busch is still a decent pick here (Richmond stands as one of his best remaining tracks in a supremely frustrating season for the reigning champ), but Hamlin feels like a clear favorite after the year he has put together. Combine the Virginia native's track experience with no practice and JGR's overall Richmond dominance the past few years and 2020's best Toyota driver is the smart choice.
(*Note: This was scheduled to be the second Richmond race but became the only one at the raceway in 2020 due to pandemic-related schedule changes.)
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Bristol-2
Zack's original preseason pick: Kyle Busch
Zack's revised pre-playoff pick: Kyle Busch
Why: The winless streak has to end at some point, yes? Bad luck and an uncharacteristic lack of zip in the new no-practice race-weekend routine have kept the No. 18 out of Victory Lane. Busch will find a promising venue in the Round of 16 closer at Bristol, where the JGR driver has won eight times -- more than any other track in his Cup career.
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Las Vegas-2
Pat's original preseason pick: Kyle Busch
Pat's revised pre-playoff pick: Kevin Harvick
Why: I was figuring Busch would be in quite the rhythm by now, especially on intermediate tracks. As we know, that certainly hasn't been the case. It has been for Harvick, however, who also has two Vegas wins to his credit since 2015.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Talladega-2
Zack's original preseason pick: Aric Almirola
Zack's revised pre-playoff pick: Ryan Blaney
Why: Still quite keen on Almirola, who has a smart streak of eight straight top-10 finishes at the Alabama track. But focusing in on a winning pick only means narrowing the choice to Blaney, who has won the last two Talladega events. Both victories came with narrow margins of .007 seconds, but the Team Penske ace has led the most laps in each instance.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Charlotte Roval
Pat's original preseason pick: Alex Bowman
Pat's revised pre-playoff pick: Chase Elliott
Why: As the defending winner of this race and the unquestioned best road racer in the series at the moment (see: Daytona Road Course), I'm switching my pick from one Hendrick Motorsports driver to another. Keep an eye on Bowman, though, who averaged a 3.0 finish in the first two Roval races.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Kansas-2
Zack's original preseason pick: Martin Truex Jr.
Zack's revised pre-playoff pick: Martin Truex Jr.
Why: Though some consideration was given to Chase Elliott or possibly a driver from the Team Penske group, MTJ still gets the nod for Kansas, where he has placed among the top six in six of the last seven races. His third-place finish there June 23 kicked off his stellar streak of eight consecutive top-five results.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Texas-2
Pat's original preseason pick: Joey Logano
Pat's revised pre-playoff pick: Ryan Blaney
Why: Twice in the last seven Texas races, Blaney has led the most laps and not come away with the win -- including this year's spring race. If he can stay away from bad luck -- big if -- we know he'll have a fast No. 12 Ford.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Martinsville-2
Zack's original preseason pick: Jimmie Johnson
Zack's revised pre-playoff pick: Martin Truex Jr.
Why: There's still a solid chance for Johnson to add a 10th grandfather clock to his collection in his final season, but he'll be vying for it as a playoff outsider. The much-hotter hand at Martinsville belongs to Truex, who has won two in a row at the .526-mile track and has six straight top-10 results there.
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Phoenix-2
Pat's original preseason pick: Kevin Harvick
Pat's revised pre-playoff pick: Kevin Harvick
Why: Perhaps the biggest no-brainer here. Slotting Harvick in as the pre-season pick to win it all at Phoenix in the finale already felt pretty solid. It has only been reinforced by the 2020 regular- season champ's performance to date, which includes seven wins and 17 top fives in 26 races. The fact he's arguably the best driver at Phoenix ever is just gravy.